2052 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Transcription

1 252 A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 5 minutes lecture January 1 st, 214

2 12 scenarios for the 21 st century J Randers 2

3 Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output : Population : Pollution level Year 21 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 3

4 Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability 5 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output 3: Industrial output : Population : Pollution level Year 21 4 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 4

5 The 3 conclusions of The Limits to Growth 1. The planet is small (Resource constraints are likely within 1 years if growth continue) 2. Overshoot is likely (Current systems of governance are likely to allow human activity to grow beyond the finite carrying capacity of the planet) 3. Once in overshoot, physical contraction is unavoidable (Either managed or by the forces of nature or the market) J Randers 5

6 For all numerical data and the forecast model, consult the book website J Randers 6

7 The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population 21 GDP 21 GDP per person 21 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US, China 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1), BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 7

8 World population will peak in 24 Gpersons 1 % / yr 5, 8 Population ( scale) 4, 6 3, 4 Birth rate (scale ) 2, 2 Death rate 1, g database with slides Graph , Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 8

9 % / yr 5, World GDP growth will slow down G$ / yr 15 Gp 1. 4, World GDP (scale ) , Long term growth rate in output per person aged 15 to 65 ( scale) Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) , , 3 2., g1365j. Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 9

10 Global consumption will peak in 245 G$ / yr Traditional investment (24% of GDP) Non-discretionary investment ( unavoidable repair ) World GDP Consumption 3 g database with slides Graph Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 1

11 Energy use will peak in 24 Gtoe / yr 2 toe / M$ 3 G$ / yr Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) World energy use ( scale) World GDP (scale ) Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 197 to 25 g database with slides Graph 6 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 11

12 Gtoe / yr 6,5 Fossil fuel use will peak around 23 5,2 Coal use 3,9 Oil use 2,6 1,3 Gas use Renewable energy use Nuclear use, Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 197 to 252 g database with slides Graph 8 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 12

13 World CO 2 emissions will peak in 23 GtCO2 / yr 5 tco2 / toe 5 Gtoe/yr Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy CO2 emissions ( scale) (scale ) Energy use (scale ) 1 5 g database with slides Graph Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 197 to 25. Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 13

14 Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 252 ppm 5 deg C 2,5 m CO2 in atmosphere ( scale) Temperature rise (scale ) 2, 1, Sea level rise (scale ) 1,.6 1,5.3 g database with slides Graph , Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 14

15 Food will satisfy demand but not need Gt / yr 12,5 Gha 2, t/ha-yr 1 1, Food production ( scale) 1,6 8 7,5 Cultivated land (scale ) Gross yield (scale ) 1,2 6 5,,8 4 2,5,4 2 g database with slides Graph 11, , Figure 6-1: Food Production World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 15

16 Discussion of the 252 forecast 1. Growth in population and GDP will slow by itself because of human decision making, not because of planetary constraints 2. But growth will not slow fast enough to avoid a climate crisis 3. There will be enough resources including energy, water and food to cover demand (which is not the same as need) 4. There will be more poverty both in the rich and the poor world J Randers 16

17 There will be huge regional differences 4 35 After-tax income per person (in 25 PPP $ per person-year) World 3 BRISE 25 China 2 15 OECD less US 1 USA 5 ROW Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 17

18 Main conclusions from the 252 forecast World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 252 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis Consumption will stagnate because world society will have to spend ever more on repair and adaptation The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development J Randers 18

19 What should be done? - Ideally 1. Further slow population growth Introduce 1-child policy first in rich world 2. Cut CO2 emissions first in the rich world Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from Reduce poverty in the poor world Give them a climate-friendly energy system 4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate compulsory vacation 5. Temper national short termism Establish supra-national institutions 6. Reduce the focus on income growth Establish increase in well-being as a new goal J Randers 19

20 What should be done? Realistically (1 of 2) 1. Further slow population growth Give moral support to women with < 2.1 children Increase the pension age Explain that support burden will stay constant 2. Cut CO2 emissions first in the rich world Subsidize energy efficiency in all sectors Build no new fossil capacity in the rich world Introduce a high carbon price 3. Reduce poverty in the poor world Use most development aid to build renewable energy capacity Copy the rise of Japan, South Korea, and China and their use of strong government J Randers 2

21 What should be done? Realistically (2 of 2) 4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate more compulsory vacation Give each person the right to a certain amount of paid work ( ration paid work ) 5. Temper national short termism Establish a global agreement where all nations promise to emit less CO2 than the US Evolve IPCC to IPCC3 (funded to execute the most effective cuts) 6. Reduce the focus on income growth Start measuring change in well-being alongside change in GDP J Randers 21

22 Time to turn! J Randers 22

23 What can you do on your own? Fight short-termism in the following ways: 1. Accept that the root problem is human short-termism My greed today damages my grandchildren! 2. Tell the world that you will do your fair share once the majority agrees to act I am ready if you are! 3. Admit that the simplest solution is strong government I am in favour of tax-financed, collective action! Or at the very least:. Buy CO2 emission rights in the European quota trading system and burn them! J Randers 23

24 Slowing growth in total productivity - USA % / yr 1, 8, 6, Rate of growth in GDP per person 15 to 65 years of age 4, 2,, -2, -4, g database with slides Graph 3c -6, Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 24

25 Fertility decline in EU to 21 2,5 Total fertility 2, Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman 1,5 Long term trend 1,,5, Figure A4-1 Total Fertility EU to 21 Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_12522.xls Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 25

26 Enough land but less of it undisturbed Ggha 12,5 1, Total biocapacity ( scale) gha / person 1,5 1,2 7,5 Non-energy footprint ( scale),9 5,,6 2,5 Unused biocapacity per person (scale ) g database with slides Graph 12a, ,3, Figure 6-2: Biological Capacity World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 26

27 OECD outside the US 197 to 25 1, State of Affairs Population,8 GDP CO2 emissions,6 Consumption,4,2 Temperature rise g database with slides Graph 13, Max values.8 Gp, 3 G$/yr, 7 GtCO2/yr, 3 G$/yr, 2.5 deg C Figure 8-1_o: Past and future OECD-less-US State of Affairs 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 27

28 OECD outside the US 197 to 25 1, Production Energy use,8,6 Unused biocapacity Food production,4 Investment share of GDP Fraction renewable,2, Max values 3.2 Gtoe/yr, 5%, 4%, 1.2 Gt/yr, 5% Figure 8-2_o: Past and future OECD-less-US Production 197 to 25 g database with slides Graph 14 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 28

29 OECD outside the US 197 to 25 1, Standard of Living GDP per person,8,6 Energy use per person Food per person Consumption per person,4,2 Sea level rise g database with slides Graph 15, Max values 5 toe/person-yr, 4, $/person-yr, 4, $/person-yr, 2 t/person-yr, 1.5 m Figure 8-3_o: Past and future OECD-less-US Standard of Living 197 to 252 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 29