Business as Usual (BAU) Preliminary Scenario Results

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1 6 th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook Business as Usual (BAU) Preliminary Scenario Results Cecilia Tam Deputy Vice President, APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

2 This presentation is for review purpose. Citation is not allowed. 2

3 Business as Usual: Energy Demand 3

4 Mtoe APEC Total Final Energy Demand Non-energy Agricultural and non-specified Commercial Residential Transport Industry Energy demand rises 5% by 24, led by higher demand in transport 4

5 Mtoe Growth in Final Energy Demand Compared to South East Asia Oceania Other Americas Other NE Asia Russia US China China and South East Asia account for nearly 9% of all additional demand Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other North East Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) 5

6 APEC s Final Energy Consumption Fuel mix remains relatively stable with electricity s share rising and coal s share declining 6

7 Mtoe Share in Total Industrial Energy Demand Changes in Industrial Energy Consumption 25 58% 2 56% % 52% 5% 48% 46% increments from All other sectors All other sectors increments from 3 most energy-intensive sectors 3 most energy-intensive sectors Share of non energyintensive sectors % -5 Energy consumption in Cement and Steel decline as China s production peaks 42% 7

8 Mtoe Regional Changes in Transport Energy Demand South East Asia Oceania Other Americas Other NE Asia Russia US China Transport energy demand rises sharply in China and South East Asia, while declining trends are seen in US, Russia and Other North East Asia thanks to slowing economic growth and tighter fuel efficiency 8

9 Final Energy Demand in Residential, Commerical and Agriculture Mtoe 12 1 Coal 8 Oil Gas 6 Renewable Electricity 4 Heat Coal Oil Gas NRE Electricity Heat AAGR(212~24).78% 1.27%.92%.15% 2.6% 1.59% Electricity dominates energy use in residential, commercial and agriculture 9

10 Business as Usual: Energy Supply 1

11 Mtoe APEC Projected Energy Supply Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables Gas Oil Coal Year Energy supply in APEC region will be more than double by 24 from 199 level. 11

12 Mtoe APEC Energy Demand Growth China SEA Other APEC 212 China SEA Other APEC 24 Year Energy demand in China will continue to grow while new demand in South East Asia will increased by more than 2 fold from 212 to 24 as compared to level. 12

13 APEC ENERGY SUPPLY GAP Net Exporter Net Importer China Russia Other NEA US Other Americas Oceania SEA Mtoe Supply gap is define as demand minus production. SE Asia becomes net importer of energy as Malaysia and Vietnam move from net exports to net importers. Mexico also becomes a net energy importer. 13

14 Mtoe APEC Net Oil Imports Oceania 15 South East Asia China 1 US Other NEA Net oil imports will continue to rise as China & SEA add over 7 million cars 14

15 Mtoe Mtoe High Coal Demand In Asia Pacific Coal demand for selected economies Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam 5 China US Other APEC SEA

16 Electricity Will Drive Gas Demand Industry Domestic Transport RCA Non Energy Electricity Refi & Own Use Heat Mtoe RCA: Residential, Commercial & Agriculture 16

17 Business as Usual: Power Sector 17

18 kwh/capita Electricity Demand Electricity demand [TWh] Electricity consumption per capita Southeast Asia 14 China 25 Oceania 12 United States 2 Other Americas 1 Russia 15 1 Other Northeast Asia Russia 8 6 Other Northeast Asia Other Americas 4 Oceania 5 United States 2 Southeast Asia China Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other North East Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei), South East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) 18

19 TWh APEC Electricity Results 12 Power generation by fuel type Nuclear Renewables share in power mix 1% Other fuel 1 8 Coal Gas 8% 6% Other renewables 6 Hydro 4 Oil 4% Doubling level 2 Hydro 2% Other Renewables %

20 Regional Electricity Generation 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Oil Gas Other Renewables Hydro Coal Nuclear APEC China USA Russia Other NE Asia Other Americas Oceania SE Asia Power mix varies across APEC with coal and gas dominating in most regions 2

21 TWh TWh Nuclear and Renewables by Region Nuclear generation 6 Renewables generation Other Northeast Asia Oceania Russia Southeast Asia Other Americas USA China Modest growth expected in nuclear and renewables under BAU 21

22 Emmssions [Gt] CO 2 Emissions and Intensity Emissions and intensity by region, 212 and APEC emissions intensity (212) APEC emissions intensity (24) China USA Russia Other NE Asia Other Americas Oceania SE Asia. Emissions (212) Emissions (24) APEC (212) APEC (24) Emissions Intensity (212) Emissions Intensity (24) Most regions show improvements in emissions intensity 22

23 APEC Total Energy Investment in Energy Supply (In USD Trillion) Total Energy Investment by Sub-Sector Low Cost Investment Case USD 24 Trillion High Cost Investment Case USD 73 Trillion Investments in power and upstream dominate the energy sector. Power sector investments are estimated to range from US$ 8 trillion to US$ 36 trillion, while those for upstream production range from US$ 14 trillion to US$ 3.5 trillion Note: Upstream (oil, gas and coal production), Downstream (refinary, LNG import and expoert terminals), Transport (oil, gas and coal) and Power (generation, transmission and distribution 23

24 We appreciate your review and feedback on APERC s Outlook!