RISC-KIT: Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts toolkit

Transcription

1 RISC-KIT: Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts toolkit Ap van Dongeren Deltares This project has received funding from the European Union s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demostration under Grant Agreement No This presentation reflects the views only of the authors, and the European Union cannot be considered liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

2 Flood risks in Europe and beyond Recent and historic low-frequency, high-impact events demonstrated coastal risk (Xynthia, 2010; Xaver/St. Nicholas storm, 2013; St. Agatha storm in the Adriatic, 2014; Mediterranean flash floods 2014, 2015) La Faute sur Mer, FR Sandy, NY Cinque Terre, IT 1953 Flood, NL, BE, UK

3 Flood risks in Europe and beyond This is only to get worse, because risk (prob. hazard * consequences) is increasing due to (IPCC, 2014) 1. Increase in hazard intensity/frequency due to increased winds, extremes in rainfall sea level rise 2. Increase in consequences due to increased coastal development Without adaptation, flood damage on European coasts increase up to 11 billion Euros per year (IPCC, AR 2014)

4 IPCC 2014: three key risks of climate change for Europe FLOOD High confidence in likelihood of DROUGHT increased hazards and consequences = increased risk HEAT High confidence in effectiveness of adaptation measures Obstacles: Cost (3.5 billion Euros per year by 2100) Land use/ environment Regional differences 4 Upshot: Risk can be reduced through adaptation measures.

5 Risk reduction through adaptation Adaptation requires a re-evaluation of coastal disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies and a new mix of prevention (e.g. dike protection), mitigation (e.g. limiting construction in flood-prone areas) and preparedness (e.g. Early warning systems, EWS) measures.

6 Questions to ask: Where on the coast are hotspot areas of higher risk? What is the impact of future coastal hazard scenarios? What are effective Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures at a hotspot? How can DRR measures best be implemented? And What are the socio-cultural and historic aspects of DRR measures? Can a generic approach be applied across Europe, in data-rich and data-starved environments?

7 RISC-KIT Concept and context Develop a Toolkit of methods, tools and management approaches to reduce risk and increase resilience Fits in supranational efforts: EU Floods Directive Hyogo and Sendai Framework for Action Both are not specific on coastal risk, specifically: Hazards of overtopping, breaching, erosion. Non-stationarity of surge and flash flood events. Morphodynamic response EWSs are recommended, but are not implemented

8 Project time line November 2013: Start of project 2014: Data collection, interviews 2014-mid 2015: Tool development Mid 2015 Fall 2016: Tool application Winter May 2017: Evaluation and synthesis May 2017: End of project Meeting, Venue, Date

9 The RISC-KIT Toolkit 1. Storm Impact Database of present and historic socio-economic and physical data. 2. Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) to identify - at the regional scale (100 s km) - present and future hot spot areas of coastal risk 3. Web-based Management Guide offering innovative, cost-effective, ecosystem-based DRR measures; 4. Quantitative, high-resolution Hotspot Tool (EWS/DSS) to evaluate the effectiveness of DRR measures in hot spots (with a scale of 10 s of km) and 5. MCA Guide to assess alternative DRR measures with stakeholders

10 Case study sites and partners 10 case study sites in Europe, 1 in Bangladesh 17 partners of different backgrounds Local end-user at each case study site

11 1. Storm impact database Database at risckit.cloudapp.net/risckit/#/

12 2. Coastal Risk Assessment Framework Identify - at the regional scale (100 s km) - present and future hot spot areas of coastal risk CRAF1: phase 1 to identify potential hotspots using empirical (simple) rules CRAF2: phase 2 to select hotspot using advanced tools Results stored in a web-viewer.

13 2- CRAF Phase 2 Hotspots comparison using impact assessment model and MCA Hotspot 1 Hotspots Hazard process-based modelling (XBeach) and vulnerability assessment Receptors Vulnerability Library Impact assessment model Hotspot 2 Hotspot selection

14 3 - Web-based management guide Background information for coastal management approaches at all the study sites feed into the development of web-based management guide and policy briefs

15 4. Hotspot (EWS/DSS) tool Quantitative, high-resolution Hotspot Tool to be used Ex-ante: evaluate the effectiveness of DRR measures in hot spots (with a scale of 10 s of kms) ex-ante Real-time: as part of Early Warning System Based on FEWS system, but now for seas and coasts. Results stored in Bayesian Net: no need to run expensive models operationally

16 4. Evaluate effectiveness of DRR measures Compute effect of DRR measures on consequences of storms with model system Measures that affect the hazard pathway (flood defences) Measures that affect exposure and vulnerability (evacuation) DRR measure: dune nourishment Flood extent without and with DRR measure (RISC-KIT site Kristianstad) Results of model simulations and measured data are stored in a Bayesian Network

17 4. Bayesian Network During planning/assessment phase 100s of model simulations can be run, describing Changes in storm conditions (small-large return periods, climate change and sea level rise scenarios) Changes in the physical setting Varying DRR measures Results of all model simulations and measured data are stored in a Bayesian Network Interactive, fast and efficient communication tool

18 4. FEWS - Early Warning System Example Ria Formosa, Algarve Local hazards model

19 5. Multi-Criteria Analysis Guide MCA will help evaluate the combinations of DRR measures and prioritize options in each of the RISC-KIT case studies together with stakeholders. MCA guide to provide facilitators with all steps involved in the implementation of the Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA).

20 Synopsis: RISC-KIT tool kit contains 1. Coastal risk database of current and historic data 2. CRAF: Regional-scale assessment of coastal risks 3. Web-based management guide of potential DRR measures and management practices 4. Evaluation of DRR measures and Early Warning with Hotspot Tool 5. Multi Criteria Analysis guide to evaluate solutions All software is free-ware and/or open-source See for details