Developing pathways for zero poverty and zero emissions Presentation to Our Common Future under Climate Change Conference Paris, 8 July 2015

Transcription

1 Developing pathways for zero poverty and zero emissions Presentation to Our Common Future under Climate Change Conference Paris, 8 July 2015 Prof. Harald Winkler Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town 1 ERC

2 Zero poverty and zero emissions Poverty eradication top priority of developing countries for long time Global goal on mitigation framed as net zero emissions by 2050/70 SDG end poverty in all its forms everywhere How to achieve zero poverty and zero emissions? 2 ERC

3 Easy problem? hard solutions! Oxfam make poverty history For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong. H.L. Mencken 3 ERC

4 Material conditions shape ideas Poverty and inequality shape agenda in South Africa Many developing countries, climate action needed at same time as reducing poverty and inequality National Development Plan poverty and inequality = foremost priorities Emissions peak, plateau and decline trajectory Very challenging in economy dominated by coal, with low skills base, electricity crisis, 550 Peak Plateau Decline 4 ERC

5 Model multiple development-climate objectives Information that is credible, analytically rigorous and therefore relevant Story to enable interest to imagine themselves in different future = relevant and legitimate Long-standing energy model development at ERC now linked with economy-wide model Technically plausible, but has negative welfare effects Phase 1 Winkler, H., et al., Information for a developmental approach to mitigation: Linking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa. Joint paper for CDKN project on Linking sectoral and economy-wide models. 2014, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town: Cape Town. Merven, B., et al., The socio-economic implications of mitigation actions in the power generation sector and carbon taxes in South Africa. Working paper for CDKN project on Linking sectoral and economy-wide models. 5 ERC

6 Deep decarbonisation, jobs, eductions, energy, agriculture and more. ERC undertook deep decarbonisation pathways project case study on South Africa 14 Gt CO 2 -eq in SA s energy sector from and meeting the multiple development objectives is possible to a point From history of minerals-energy complex, focused on energy intensive sector growth But how to replace jobs lost in mining, energy supply and beneficiation? Economic Structure scenarios decrease unemployment by incentivizing growth in sectors with low carbon emissions and high levels of labour absorption High Skills scenario Assume better education; high skilled labour 6 ERC

7 More inclusive development, but Both scenarios more inclusive development Income increases by 170% from 2010 to 2050 Popuation in low-income bracket from 50% to ~18% by 2050 Unemployment reduced from current 24% to 12% in Economic Structure, 18% in High Skills High Skills needed anyway but hard to achieve Reducing poverty and emissions is a wicked problem Cannot wait for complete solution 7 ERC

8 Implement SD policies Sustainable development policies and measures (SD- PAMs) Recognise these are not business-as-usual Winkler, H., et al., Sustainable development policies and measures: starting from development to tackle climate change, in Building on the Kyoto Protocol: Options for protecting the climate, K. Baumert, et al., Editors. 2002, World Resources Institute: Washington DC. p Winkler, H., N. Höhne, and M. Den Elzen, Methods for quantifying the benefits of sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs). Climate Policy, (2): p Winkler, H., M. Howells, and K. Baumert, Sustainable development policies and measures: institutional issues and electrical efficiency in South Africa. Climate Policy, (3): p Höhne, N. and S. Moltmann, Linking national climate and sustainable development policies with the post-2012 climate regime: Proposals in the energy sector for Brazil, China, India, South Africa and South Korea. 2007, Ecofys: Cologne. RSA, Dialogue working paper 18: Submission from South Africa: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures. 2006, Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism: Pretoria. p. 3. Baumert, K. and H. Winkler, SD-PAMs and international climate agreements. Chapter 2, in Growing in the greenhouse: Protecting the climate by putting development first, R. Bradley and K.A. Baumert, Editors. 2005, World Resources Institute: Washington, D.C. p ERC

9 If there is no zero poverty, we cannot expect ambitious action in developing countries If zero poverty cannot be achieved, then? Mathematical models will NOT provide solution space Co-producing knowledge with stakeholders Long-term mitigation scenarios for South Africa Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru, Use this approach for transition to zero poverty and zero emissions societies. 9 ERC

10 A new social contract? To realise zero poverty and zero emissions, a new social contract is needed GHG emissions Income (GDP/capita) 10 ERC

11 Thank you ERC