Disaster Risk and Climate Change

Transcription

1 1 The Ocean Accounts Issue 3: Disaster Risk and Climate Change Sanjay Srivastava, ESCAP

2 2 The Ocean Accounts Connecting the dots.. Sendai Framework SDGs Paris Agreement, COP23 (Ocean Pathways) System of Environmental Economic Accounting Disaster Related Statistical Framework Policies Statistics Science Ocean-genic disasters

3 3 The Ocean Accounts Understanding risk of tsunami, cyclone, storm surge, El Nino etc. using SEEA-EEA framework Spatial Area Classification of ecosystems Ecosystem condition Characteristics and indicators SEEA Environmental Ecosystem Accounting Ecosystem services Description and classification Accounting for ecosystem capacity, degradation and enhancement

4 4 WN Pacific and South China Sea Cyclone Tracks Spatial Area Every year, 50 to 60 tropical cyclones occur in three Asia-Pacific ocean basins whose coastlines are shared by multiple countries. Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea South West Pacific

5 5 Tropical cyclone increasing complexity Tropical cyclones will have shorter return periods with increasing storm surges and wind speeds. In the Pacific basin, the track of tropical cyclones may shift eastward or northward. Three times increase in the number of people and economic assets exposed

6 6 Tsunami Drivers (fault in ocean bed)

7 7 Tsunami hazard (RP of 475 years)

8 8 Storm Surge run-up height 10 years

9 Intensity of El-Niño, The strongest intensity of El Niño Very strong, or up to 3 Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

10 Observed Sea-Surface Temperature in The highest observed sea-surface temperature: November and December 2015 ENSO-neutral condition: June

11 11 Tsunami and cyclone Spatial mapping of risk hot spots

12 Ecosystem condition Characteristics and indicators (Hazard assessment) 12 NASA IMERG Estimates Rainfall over SE Asia During Typhoon Damrey, 31 Oct -6 Nov 2017 The Ocean Accounts

13 13 Chlorophyll <2005> Degradation of ocean conditions No Chlorophyll <2015/2016 El Nino year> El Nino erodes natural resource based livelihoods Impact of El Nino on natural resources and livelihoods (i.e. plankton, coral etc.) Source: Workshop material: Approaches for assessing risk and losses on fisheries and agriculture, ESCAP NASA:

14 14 The Ocean Accounts Ecosystem Services- Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST)

15 15 The Ocean Accounts Accounting for ecosystem Degradation: Impact forecasting

16 16 The Ocean Accounts Ocean Accounting for DRR and CC: Existing approaches Disaster Risk: SEEA-EEA provides a spatial framework for delineating ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, coastal beaches) that mitigate or are affected by ocean-related disasters. The Sendai Framework provides several disaster-related definitions and indicators. The Disaster-Related Statistical Framework (DRSF) (ESCAP 2017) provides guidance on measuring disaster risk and impacts. Climate change: The SEEA Central Framework provides guidance on calculating GHG emissions. The SEEA-EEA includes guidance on tracking biocarbon (Carbon Account) as a component of ecosystem condition. The UN Economic Commission for Europe has developed a set of key climate-change related indicators, many of which can be derived from the SEEA.

17 17 SDG 14 not a direct link that connects the Sendai Target with respective SDGs Target A B C D E F G Number of deaths, missing persons and persons affected by disaster per 100,000 people Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global domestic product (GDP) Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global GDP, including disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services Number of countries with national and local disasters risk reduction strategies Proportion of local governments that adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Goal/Target Goal 1 Target 1.5 Goal 11 Target 11.5 Goal 11 Target 11.b Goal 13 Target 13.1

18 18 The Ocean Accounts System analysis of SDG 14

19 19 Deaths Missing persons Injured, ill Dwellings Livelihoods Agricultural Productive assets Housing sector Critical infrastructure Cultural heritage Health and educational Critical infrastructure Disruptions to services National DRR strategies Local DRR strategies Iinternational support Support to tech. Capacity building, etc. Early warning (EW)systems People covered by EW Local gov. and EW Risk information available Evacuated people #1: Recommendation In alignment with the Sendai targets, determine a core set of statistics common to ocean, disaster risk and climate change, viz., coastal communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, and ocean conditions (temperature change, storms, phytoplankton..) And fill in existing data gaps Target A The availability of data to monitor and report on the indicators measuring the global targets of the Sendai Framework (and disaster-related targets of the SDGs) Target B Target C Target D Target E Target F Target G

20 20 The Ocean Accounts #2: Recommendation Promote ocean account to establish the coherence between the SDG 14 and the Sendai targets SDG 14- Target 14.2 By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, strengthening their resilience.. Indicator: Proportion of national exclusive economic zones managed using ecosystem based approaches Link to ocean accounts: SEEA Aquatic Resources, Ecosystem Extent, Environmental Protection Expenditures, Aquatic resources, Ocean Services Target 14.5 By 2020, conserve at least 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas, based on the best available scientific information Indicator: Coverage of protected areas in relation to marine areas Link to ocean accounting: SEEA Aquatic Resources, Ecosystem Extent, Environmental Protection Expenditures, Aquatic resources, Ocean Services

21 #3: Recommendation Support policy actions through ocean account for nature based solutions, coastal ecosystem based DRR/CCA approaches Coastal ecosystem and wave height reduction Absolute wave reduction extents are plotted against incident wave heights for coral reefs, salt marshes, mangroves and sea grass Source: 21 The Ocean Accounts

22 22 The Ocean Accounts #4: Recommendation Innovative means of data capture: Adapting and applying global oceanographic and weather satellite datasets/products to climate monitoring and operational ocean forecasting Global Sea Surface Temperatures: Merging data from various sensors; Studies of spatial and temporal variability including fronts nad upwelling; Validation using shipbased infra-red radiometry. Oceanographic data products from remotely sensed ocean colour and their assimilation into numerical ecosystem models. Using satellite observations to improve estimates of air-sea fluxes of momentum, heat and gases. Group for high resolution sea surface temperature

23 23 #5: Recommendation Link ocean account with national statistics for DRR and CCA Methodology for developing visual product map for estimating cost of agriculture damage during Typhoon Haiyan in Philippines

24 24 #6: Recommendation Key Entry Point for Ocean Accounting: Impact based forecasts- Ocean-genic disasters Trigger Probabilistic Forecast Risk Scenarios Impact Outlook

25 25 The Ocean Accounts Acknowledgements Prepared by: Sanjay Srivastava Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction, ESCAP Thank you: UNESCAP. Contact: