Water resource problems in Mongolia

Transcription

1 Water resource problems in Mongolia G.Davaa Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia

2 Water cycle variations possibly impacted by the climate change

3 Introduction Hydrological changes caused by: Direct impacts as anthropogenic pressures such as land uses (agriculture, farming, mining, timbering and etc). Direct and indirect impacts: Climate change

4 Reconstructed and observed air temperature and water level of the Uvs lake H, cm Huvs = *(dendro_ind.5) R 2 = T air, oc t air = *(dendro_ind.5) Year t air annual mean, observed at Ulaangom Dendro_index (moving average of 5 years) H uvs, cm Year H uvs. Est., cm H uvs., cm

5 Total Table numbers 1. Total of rivers, numbers springs, of rivers, lakes springs, and mineral lakes and waters mineral Mongolia, waters in in Mongolia, 2003 in 2003 Name of provinces Rivers and streams Springs Mineral waters Lakes and ponds /Aimag/ total dried total dreid total dried total Dried Arkhangai Bayan-Ulgii Bayankhongor Bulgan Gobi-Altai Gobisumber Darkhan-Uul Dornogobi Dornod Dundgobi Zavkhan Orkhon Uvurkhangai Umnugobi Sukhbaatar Selenge Tuv Ulaanbaatar Uvs Khovd Khuvsugul Khentii Total in provinces Total in the country

6 Table 1. Total numbers of rivers, springs, lakes and mineral waters in Mongolia, in 2003 Hydrological inventories were organized in 2003 and Y 2003 Y River lakes Spring Mineral water Number of water sources dried out in 2003 and 2007 Many changes occurring in water regime: Increase in flood peak discharge, shortening its duration, increase in low flow duration, late ice phenomena in autumn, yearly spring ice clearance, ice break occurs in winter and etc.

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8 t 0 C y = x R 2 = y = x R 2 = y = x y = x R 2 = R 2 = y = x R 2 = y = x R 2 = H, m V VI VII VIII IX X H max, m (t=0 o C) H max(t=0oc) = (T) R2 = H max, m (t=0oc) Linear (H max, m (t=0oc)) Monthly average height of 0 o C, determined from radio sonde data May 1386 m June July m August Sep m. Annual maximum height of 0 o C in It is increasing by 17.3 m/year. Total increase is estimated as m in period.

9 Changes in glacier areas, sq.km 1940-th 25 June, 10 Sep. Glacier massif map Aug Kharkhiraa Turgen Munkhkharhan * Tsambagarav Sair Changes in glacier areas, % in comparison with area of 1940-th Glacier 1940-th 25 June, Sep Aug Kharkhiraa Turgen Tsambagarav

10 = V, KM River water 34.6 øîî êì OH Precipitation (P), runoff depth and evaporation (P-h), mm Tuul river Year h, Tuul-UB P Basin E=P-h H, m Ground water level y = -1E-04x R 2 = Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 date Moron Oct-95 Mar-97 Jul-98 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct H = x R2 = H = 6E-05x R2 = Ekh gol Arvaikheer

11 P, E, mm & H, cm Uvs lake V total, km OH H, Uvs E, mm P,mm V total, km3 R, dv, E, dgw, mm Khar-Us lake OH Chonokharaikh Evaporation Khovd river inflow Buyant river inflow Chang e in vo lume Delta GW Precipitation H annual aver.,cm H, cm, P, mm Water balance elements, mm P = T R 2 = E = T R 2 = Surface inflow Groundwater inflow Surface outflow Chang e in vo lume Evaporation Difference of ground water inflow and outflow Precipitation Linear (Evaporation) Buir lake Linear (Precipitation) Precipitation mm

12 Mongolia's strategy and countermeasures (ongoing and/or planning) Government Policies: National Water Program, National Program on Reduction of Natural Disasters, National Action Plan on Climate change, National Action Plan for Combating Desertification etc. Government Policy on Ecology In the article under 3.1 states that Water resources, its proper use and protection are key policy of the Government and needed to upgrade and improve water resources monitoring; National Program on Reduction of Natural Disasters ( ), Paragraph 3 states Policy on reduction of natural disasters, in its 14.1 states to improve monitoring activities for natural disaster prevention; National Action Plan on Climate change: Adaptation measures, Natural disaster and infection diseases, and herewith focused to strengthening capacity building Law on Environmental protection, Law on fees for water resources and mineral water uses, Law on hydrological, meteorological and environmental monitoring, Law on Water, and Law on Protection against natural disasters and others.

13 Comparison of current climate and simulation results of GCM using bilinear interpolation method Annual mean air temp. in HadCM3- U.K. ECHAM4- Germany GFDL- USA CCGM3 - Canada CSIRO-Australia bias = N o m ( X n X ) n 1 N n= 1

14 Runoff depth and its future changes, mm/year Rainfall intensity parameter (I) equals to 0.40 in AOB, 0.27 in POB, 0.5 in IDB. Runoff change: A2: 2020, dy= 10 mm in Khentei Mts., 2-5 mm in other mountain areas, -2 mm in intermountainous valleys, steppe and Gobi regions. Increase in runoff is 10 times less than increase value in potential evaporation.

15 River water formation zone Ã. Äàâàà, 2002 National program on protection of head water and water sources

16 Current protected area and the area where forms 70 % of river water resources

17 Strengthening Integrated water resource management: Major river basins where proposed to establish river basin Consuls

18 Needs for the above strategy and countermeasures Socio-economic scenarios (detail) Climate change scenarios at regional scale Land use scenarios (options) Impact assessment results on ecosystems and vulnerability analysis Adaptation policy (real financed) Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressures on water resources and its integrated management

19 What we expect from GEOSS Use of GEOSS products (MOLTS, Satellite (GPM, soil moisture (MAVEX), glacier (ALOS), lake, natural disaster monitoring), water and energy budget monitoring, modeling and prediction) Capacity Building Programs Use of training and workshops organized within AWCI and others Public awareness: Dissemination of knowledge for water resources management and application to practices Shearing with best practices in IWRM, experiences, technologies Application of IWRM to National and regional levels (Demonstration project : Selbe River basin, Mongolia )

20 Updated CEOP Ref. site configuration in Mongolia Satellite image region ULB radar (run by MAVEX) since the former CEOP grassland Ulanbaataar semi-desert desert Taiga MOLTS points newly implemented Selbe river basin Northern Mongolia taiga forest to semi-arid grassland Mongolia (run by MAVEX) since the former CEOP semi-desert Source: Dr. J. Asanuma, University of Tsukuba