FAIRMODE Forum for air quality modelling in Europe. Leonor Tarrasón (NILU) and Philippe Thunis (JRC)

Transcription

1 FAIRMODE Forum for air quality modelling in Europe Leonor Tarrasón (NILU) and Philippe Thunis (JRC)

2 Outline 1. What is FAIRMODE? 2. Activities under FAIRMODE Urban Emissions in FAIRMODE 4. Cooperation with ERMES

3 1. What is FAIRMODE?

4 Terms of reference To provide a permanent European forum for air quality modellers and model users To provide guidance and promote competence-building activities on the use of air quality models for the purposes of implementation of the AQ Directive To study and set-up a system (protocols and tools) for quality assurance and continuous improvements of AQ models To make recommendations and promote further research in the field of air quality modelling

5 FAIRMODE review of air quality legislation In 2012, FAIRMODE identified the following major applications of models within the Air Quality Directives: 1. Assessment of air quality levels to establish the extent of exceedances and establish the population exposure 2. Forecasting air quality levels for short term mitigation and public information and warnings 3. Source allocation to determine of the origin of exceedances and provide a knowledge basis for planning strategies 4. Evaluation of plans and measures to control AQ exceedances reflected in today s FAIRMODE structure

6 Major applications of models in the AQD I. Assessment of air quality levels to establish the extent of exceedances and establish the population exposure WG1: Assessment II. Urban Emission inventories WG2: Emissions III. Source allocation to determine of the origin of exceedances and provide a knowledge basis for planning strategies WG3: Source Apport. IV. Assessment of plans and measures to control AQ exceedances WG4: Planning

7 Fairmode work plan Steering Group [JRC, DG ENV, EEA, WG leaders] WG1 Assessment WG2 Emissions WG3 Source App. WG4 Planning S. Janssen P. Thunis L. Tarrason J. Lumbreras C. Belis G. Pirovano A. Clappier P. Thunis Benchmarking (Methodology) Guidelines & Guidance CCA Spatial Repres. O. Kracht CCA Forecasting F. Meleux CCA Monit. & Model. A. Miranda Capacity Building and communication

8 2. Activities under FAIRMODE

9 WG1: Assessment Model Quality Objectives Start of a CEN standardization process Extension to other species Contribution to e-reporting DELTA applications: Centralized repository Further development of DELTA

10 WG2: Emissions Focus on urban emissions (city vs. city & city vs. national) Focus on traffic emissions in urban areas (first stage) More involvement of city level experts Benchmarking for selected cities (2015) Bridge the gap between city scale climate gas and air quality emission methodologies.

11 WG3: Source Apportionment 1. Harmonised Receptor model protocol Start of a CEN standardization process Median 25%-75% Min-Max selected factors (preliminary tests applied) 1. Inter-comparison for receptor-oriented and source-oriented models in collaboration with EURODELTA ABS (z-score) APCFA ME2 PMF3 PMF2 PCA COPREM CMB MODEL Development of indicators and evaluation methodology 3. Development of website with repository for European source profiles 4. Capacity building initiatives

12 WG4: Planning Region 1 Towards a common and simple methodology What is the potential for local action? Which are the key emission precursors? 0.3 Region 2 Which are the key activity sector? How robust/non-linear is the modeled response 0.45 Work-plan: participants contributions to be received by end 2014, analysis early 2015 Check availability of reference database

13 3. Urban Emissions in FAIRMODE

14 FAIRMODE WG2: Urban Emissions Benchmarking Traffic emissions Traffic emissions methodologies review GHG and AQ emissions from traffic Link to TFEIP Determination of good practices for traffic emissions Link to ERMES and MACC Differences between national and urban traffic inventories Link to ICLEI Guidance on traffic emissions methodology

15 Top down approach: DOWNSCALING APPROACH TO URBAN SCALE INVENTORIES MACC / MEGAPOLI 2005 PM10 total Using national EIs and spatial distribution proxies we make a down-scaled emission map

16 ALTERNATIVE APPROACH: bottom-up BU emission models, with information on the traffic volume, vehicle stock, and vehicle emission factors

17 Traffic volume information In BU urban scale inventories. Traffic volume information comes from Traffic models (Milan) or Actual traffic counts (Barcelona, Oslo)

18 Vehicle stock information from Urban statistics (Oslo) or Actual traffic observations (Milan, Barcelona) Limitations associated with data privacy legislation Vehicle stock information

19 EF emission factor information from COPERT Model Motor type CO 2 (g/km) NO x (mg/km) NO 2 (mg/km) HP Toyota Prius Gasoline/EL Hybrid ,6 136 VW Golf 1,4 TSI aut Gasoline ,5 122 Audi A3 2,0 TDI aut Diesel ,5 140 BMW 118 d aut Diesel SmartForTwo Diesel NO 2 NO2 emissions: Hybrid vs Gasoline, a factor of 4 Gasoline vs Diesel, a factor of 30 Hybrid vs Diesel, a factor of 125 conservativte share 10% for gasoline, 50% for diesel.

20 Emission factors Difference between EDC tests and actual driving conditions for diesel cars Laboratory tests at statutory and urban driving conditions at + 23 C Laboratory tests with actual urban driving conditions at -7 C Hagman, 2011; Alvarez et al, 2008

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22 Correlation (R 2 ) NORTRIP PM10 Daily mean correlation (R 2 ), with and without moisture modelling 1 Net daily mean PM 10 correlation 0,9 0,8 0,7 Uncoupled model Coupled model 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 0,33 0,60 0,22 0,63 0,17 0,43 0,14 0,48 0,03 0,54 0 0,68 0,28 0,46 0,15 0,52 0,07 0,50 0,08 0,45 0,04 0,53 0,07 0,50 0,01 0,67 0,43 0,31 0,30 0,28 0,22 0,44 0,29 0,46 0,13 0,24 HCAB 2011* HCAB 2010* HCAB 2009* HCAB * HCAB * Runeberginkat u 2004 Mannerheimint ie * NB 2002 RV RV RV Essingeleden Hornsgatan * Hornsgatan Hornsgatan Hornsgatan Hornsgatan Hornsgatan 2000

23 4. Cooperation with ERMES

24 vkm (millions) WG2 focuses at present on the compilation of good practices for urban emission compilation, with focus on mobile sources Identification of best available data sources and methods Methodologies to understand emission processes Comparison of emission factors Time of day Work Transit Tourin Social Shoppi Service Other Leisure Home Freigh Bring/

25 FAIRMODE Emission Benchmarking General overview MACC 7km sector/pollutant maps Population map Precursor ratios Info request to participants Pro Capita comparisons

26 FAIRMODE Emission Benchmarking Current benchmarking activities focus on Comparability and Consistency issues In 2015 we will begin discussing accuracy issues Computer CPC DRX OPC

27 Cooperation topics Cooperation with ERMES program with focus on testing their emission factors (EF) a) feedback to ERMES labs b) comparability analysis c) requests for new Efs Possible questions to address jointly 1. Real world emission measurements 2. Repository of European source profiles ( shipping emissions, crustal emissions )

28 Questions for discussion 1. How would you like to see cooperation evolve after this meeting? 2. Are there any specific aspects that ERMES would like FAIRMODE WG2 to focus on?

29 Thank you fairmode.jrc.ec.europa.eu

30 Annex

31 WG1: Assessment WG2: Emissions WG3: Src. App. WG3: Planning Median 25%-75% Min-Max selected factors (preliminary tests applied) 7 ABS (z-score) APCFA ME2 PMF3 PMF2 PCA COPREM CMB MODEL Model Quality Obj. Perf. Report templ. DB repository Guidance / training Urban emissions Focus on traffic Review of compilation methodologies Benchmarking for selected cities Inter-comparisons (incl. CTM) Develop indicators for assessment Develop services (webbased data repository) Training activities to disseminate best practices. Review methodologie Develop a methodolog and indicators to test model responses Template for reporting model performances