CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN TURKMENISTAN. World Bank August 6, Outline. Facts Impacts Response Strategic support

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN TURKMENISTAN World Bank August 6, 2012 Outline Facts Impacts Response Strategic support 1

2 Facts: Turkmenistan Over the last decade: average annual air temperature has risen by C : increase of 2ºC across the entire territory of Turkmenistan 2100: from 2-3ºC to 6-7ºC By 2100: precipitation (already low) will be reduced by 8-17% Amu Darya river runoff the main source of Turkmenistan s surface waters - will reduce by 10-15% by 2050 Sources: National Climate Change Strategy; 2012; UNFCCC 2 nd Communication, 2010 Impacts A simplified index of vulnerability to climate change among Europe and Central Asian countries Turkmenistan (8 th /30 ECA countries) Source: Fay and Patel (2008) A simple index of vulnerability to climate change. Background paper prepared for World Bank report. Washington, DC. 2

3 Impacts Drivers of vulnerability Turkmenistan: its mostly sensitivity to climate change Source: Fay and Patel (2008) A simple index of vulnerability to climate change. Background paper prepared for World Bank report. Washington, DC. Impacts Sensitivity is defined by: Available renewable water resources per capita Share of agriculture in the economy (share of employment and value of assets) Share of electricity derived from hydroelectric plants Overall quality of infrastructure since in poor condition is more likely to fail during an extreme event Share of population over 65, who tend to be more sensitive to climate shocks Extent of air pollution (since particulate matter in the air worsens the impact of heat waves) 3

4 Impacts: Turkmenistan Sensitivity is defined by: Available renewable water resources per capita Share of agriculture in the economy (share of employment and value of assets) Share of electricity derived from hydroelectric plants Overall quality of infrastructure since in poor condition is more likely to fail during an extreme event Share of population over 65, who tend to be more sensitive to climate shocks Extent of air pollution (since particulate matter in the air worsens the impact of heat waves) Impacts: Turkmenistan Agriculture: 91% of water allocated to agriculture Current arable land = 1.7 million ha Current water allocation = 21 billion m 3 Water intensity = 12,500 m 3 /ha Arable land by 2030 = 2 million ha Implied water requirement = 25 billion m 3 Impossible to meet without: Water conservation and efficiency measures Greater use of drought resistant varieties Shift patterns of production other crops 4

5 Impacts Impacts on water supply for other economic uses: Surface water for domestic and industrial i use Impacts on health: Direct effects through heat stress, death or injuries from floods or storms Indirect effects through changing patterns of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, pathogens in water, and deteriorating air quality Response: Mitigation Energy Intensity 2007 Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (Constant 2005 PPP $) Turkmenistan ECA Countries Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Kazakhstan Russian Federation Moldova Low income South Africa China ECA (developing only) Kyrgyzstan Belarus Bulgaria Estonia Serbia Tajikistan Finland India Azerbaijan Czech Republic World Korea, Republic of FYR Macedonia United States Slovakia Poland Romania OECD members Hungary Slovenia Brazil Latvia European Union Germany Turkey 5

6 Response: Mitigation Energy: Efficiency savings through technological modernization Oil and gas sector Residential buildings (3 rd largest consumer) Industry Diversification of energy generation by promoting renewable energy options Turkmenistan s annual solar potential is 23.5 MTOE or 1.4 times annual energy consumption Gas flaring: 1 billion m 3 flared annually worth $US200 million Recovery or recycling schemes Response: Adaptation Agriculture & water Seed varieties, i drought resistance Irrigation efficiency Canal and pumping station rehabilitation Disaster risk management and prevention HydroMet upgrading for improved forecasting Building codes in seismic-sensitive areas 6

7 Strategic support: Gas flaring and carbon finance Turkmenistan is participating in the work of the ECA Regional Coordination Committee, established by the World Bank led Global Gas Flaring Reduction (GGFR) Partnership in Potential cooperation with the Bank/GGFR: 1) review of the current regulatory framework regarding rational use of associated gas and propose measures on further development of existing legislation; 2) assessment of current practices and provision of recommendations on the improvement of flared APG volume measurement and reporting systems; 3) assistance to prepare the country s strategy on efficient use of APG, identification, preparation and further implementation of APG utilization projects Carbon finance/ CDM options for gas flaring World Bank s carbon finance unit (CFU) - Uses money contributed by governments and companies in OECD countries to purchase project-based greenhouse gas emission reductions in developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The emission reductions are purchased through one of the CFU's carbon funds on behalf of the contributor, and within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol's Carbon Development Mechanism Strategic support: National Climate Change Strategy In collaboration with the UNDP develop the National Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan Formulate specific adaptation measures for the water and agricultural sectors For example: Climate change and agriculture sector notes summarizing stakeholder consultations developing realistic adaptation options given the agro-ecological zone, crop type and constraints (e.g. water) Albania, Macedonia, Moldova, Uzbekistan 7

8 Strategic support: National Climate Change Strategy Regional Climate Change Center Develop an institutional i i mandate for the center Develop functions: Knowledge center bringing together regional experience on climate change issues Draws on the collective knowledge of academia, Government and the private sector (both inside and outside the region) Strategic support: Caspian Environment Program Began in 1998 multi-donor sponsored initiative aiming to preserve unique ecosystems in the Caspian Sea 2006: Framework Convention for the Protection of the Environment of the Caspian Sea (Tehran Convention) ratified by all five littoral states Various projects implemented on restoring depleted fisheries and improving environmental governance; with new initiatives such as compliance with international environmental standards for construction and operation of sea transport; pipelines In collaboration with other donors, continue support to Turkmenistan in meeting objectives of the CEP 8

9 The End? 9