A Comparative Air Quality Modelling Analysis of Options for Management of Waste After Recycling. GVS&DD Board June 12, 2009

Transcription

1 A Comparative Air Quality Modelling Analysis of Options for Management of Waste After Recycling GVS&DD Board June 12, 2009

2 Air Quality in Metro Vancouver and the FVRD Air quality in the Lower Fraser Valley airshed is generally good, and compares favourably to other North American cities network of 27 monitoring stations from Horseshoe Bay to Hope measures outdoor air quality against objectives and standards there can be short term episodes of degraded air quality

3 Emissions Air Quality Air quality is a function of the interaction between emissions, meteorology, topography and other influences NOx, VOC PM, SOx, ammonia Emissions from inside and outside of airshed precursors Ozone Secondary particulate Smog / haze potential health effects Air quality (or airshed) models are used to predict outdoor air quality based on the emissions discharged to the atmosphere

4 2005 NOx Emissions = 61,000 tonnes Emissions Context waste managem ent 0.8% Heating 10% All Other Sources 24% Light-Duty Vehicles 24% Non-Road 17% Heavy- Duty Vehicles 11% Marine 14% waste management 0.3% 2005 PM2.5 Emissions = 7,000 tonnes wood products 5% all other sources 31% burning 15% heating 20% non-road 12% construction 6% light & heavyduty vehicles 4% marine 7%

5 Emissions Context 2005 SOx Emissions = 10,300 tonnes waste management 1% all other sources 11% non-road 3% petroleum products 23% metal industries 16% marine 47% agricultural 7% waste management 0.1% all other sources 12% 2005 VOC Emissions = 108,000 tonnes natural sources 33% solvent evaporation 20% non-road 11% light-duty vehicles 17%

6 Emissions Context 2005 NH3 Emissions = 18,500 tonnes waste management 0.3% all other sources 17% agricultural 76% light-duty vehicles 7%

7 emissions (tonnes/year) 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Volatile Organic Compounds Nitrogen Oxides Fine Particulate Matter Emission Trends Emissions of some contaminants have decreased or levelled off ,000 30,000,000 While others are forecast to increase SOx and NH3 emissions (tonnes/year) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Greenhouse Gases Ammonia Sulphur Oxides 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 GHG emissions (tonnes/year)

8 Emissions from solid waste management scenarios Percent SOx NH3 NOx VOCs PM2.5 Contaminant Emissions from waste management are a small contributor to airshed totals in 2020, and will be less than or comparable to present day Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario

9 Emissions from solid waste management scenarios tonnes/year SOx NH3 NOx VOCs PM2.5 Contaminant In absolute terms, emissions (tonnes) from waste management in 2020 will be less than or comparable to present day Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario

10 Airshed Modelling Methodology Modelling analysis conducted by RWDI AIR Inc. Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) Applied previously in the Pacific Northwest by Environment Canada; more recently for marine vessel emissions control Best used to compare alternative scenarios Considers meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions Model runs conducted under worst case summer ozone episode conditions for: 2005 base case basis of comparison to present day All eight 2020 scenarios compare the impacts of the scenarios

11 Model Domain

12 Regional Ozone Levels for 2020 Scenarios Compared to 2005 Maximum 8-hour Ozone Concentration (% of 2005 Base Case) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 2005 Base Case 86.14% 86.17% 86.19% 86.20% 86.16% 86.19% 86.27% 86.13% 1 Large New WTE 2 Moderate New WTE 3 In- Region Use of RDF from MBT 4 Out-of- Region Use of RDF Scenario 5 Waste Exported Out of Region to WTE 6 Local of MBT 7 Maximize Local Ozone precursors going down, modelling predicts from MBT improvements to 2020; No discernible difference between scenarios Maximum predicted 8 hour ozone, entire study area 8 Maximize Out-of- Region

13 Maximum 8-hour Ozone Concentration (% of 2005 Base Case) Ozone Levels for 2020 Scenarios Compared to Chilliwack 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 2005 Base Case % % % % % % % % 1 Large New WTE 2 Moderate New WTE 3 In- Region Use of RDF from MBT 4 Out-of- Region Use of RDF 5 Waste Exported Out of Region to WTE 6 Local of MBT Ozone precursors going down, modelling predicts from MBT improvements to 2020; Scenario No discernible difference between scenarios 7 Maximize Local Maximum predicted 8 hour ozone, Chilliwack 8 Maximize Out-of- Region

14 Regional PM 2.5 Levels for 2020 Scenarios Compared to 2005 Maximum 24-hour PM2.5 Concentration (% of 2005 Base Case) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 96.67% 96.72% 96.76% 96.77% 96.73% 96.74% 96.78% 96.68% 2005 Base Case 1 Large New WTE 2 Moderate New WTE 3 In- Region Use of RDF from MBT 5 Waste Exported Out of Region to WTE 6 Local of MBT 7 Maximize Local Maximum Predicted 24-Hour PM 2.5 entire study area 4 Out-of- Region Use of RDF from MBT 8 Maximize Out-of- Region PM precursors (SOx and NH3) not going down, modelling predicts about the same levels to 2020; but changes are not due to waste management emissions Scenario No discernible difference between scenarios

15 Maximum 24-hour PM2.5 Concentration (% of 2005 Base Case) PM 2.5 Levels for 2020 Scenarios Compared to Chilliwack 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% % % % % % % % % 2005 Base Case 1 Large New WTE 2 Moderate New WTE 3 In- Region Use of RDF from MBT Scenario 5 Waste Exported Out of Region to WTE 6 Local of MBT 7 Maximize Local Maximum Predicted 24-Hour PM Chilliwack 4 Out-of- Region Use of RDF from MBT 8 Maximize Out-of- Region PM precursors (SOx and NH3) not going down, modelling predicts about the same to 2020; but changes are not due to waste management emissions No discernible difference between scenarios

16 Health aspects RWDI report provides context on health benefits from ambient ozone and PM improvement, across scenarios Health and air quality study, BC Lung Association, % improvement in annual ozone and PM2.5 concentrations between 2000 and 2010 can produce health-related benefits on the order of $17 million / year Reduced mortality, fewer emergency room visits, decrease in restricted activity days, fewer asthma symptom days Scenario modelling shows 14% and 3% improvement in ozone and PM2.5 levels during an 8 day summer period It is expected that summer improvements would lead to overall annual improvements and therefore health-related benefits

17 Summary of Observations There will be emissions associated with waste management for the foreseeable future Future waste management emissions under any scenario are comparable to present day and are very low relative to airshed totals (from <0.1% to 1.2%) Airshed wide improvements in ambient levels of ozone and PM 2.5 are predicted due to declining emission levels of several precursors CMAQ modelling shows no discernible difference between scenarios