The Nuclear Fuel Cycle - Past, Present and Future?

Transcription

1 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle - Past, Present and Future? Presented by Mr. James J. Graham Cotter Corporation, Chairman ConverDyn, President & CEO Presented at 104th National Western Mining Conference Broomfield, Colorado September 4-7, 2001

2 Uravan

3 Ambrosia Lake

4 Gas Hills

5 South Texas

6 Why Choose Nuclear? No Greenhouse Gas or Particulate Emissions - no contribution to acid rain, no contributions to respiratory problems, no contributions to greenhouse gases High level wastes, though long lived, are controlled and concentrated. - Nuclear generation produces about 4 tons of HLW per B kwh - Fossil fuels produce 52,000 tons of solid waste per B kwh, not counting what is released into atmosphere. Utility Data Institute estimates that in 1999 electricity produced from nuclear fuel was the lowest cost (including fuel and O & M) of the major base-load fuels. Nuclear Coal Oil Gas 1.85 per kwhr 2.07 per kwhr 3.18 per kwhr 3.52 per kwhr

7 0.3 in. One enriched uranium fuel pellet produces as much electricity as: 0.6 in. 1.3 tons of coal 220 gallons of oil 27,000 cf of natural gas Just 4 fuel pellets could provide the average American household with all its electricity requirements for one year.

8 Perceived Problems Regarding Nuclear Energy!

9 Transportation Waste

10 Crash test on spent fuel transport casks - performed by Sandia National Laboratory

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14 Sources of World Electrical Power Hydro 19% Other 1% Coal 37% Nuclear 18% Oil 10% Gas 15% Source: UI, EIA, 1999

15 MWe Top 10 Nuclear Powered Countries Operating and Under Construction Reactor Capacity U.S.A. France Japan Germany Russia U.K. Korea Ukraine Canada Sweden 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000 Operating Under Construction Worldwide, 435 nuclear reactors are operating that can generate 350 GWe. 27 new reactors are under construction. Source: Uranium Institute 5/00

16 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Uranium Mining and Milling Waste Management Program U 3 O 8 Producers, world-wide, sell U 3 O 8 to utilities and traders. 55 Gal. drums = 850 lbs U 3 O 8 Spent Fuel Storage at Reactors Conversion to UF 6 Spent Fuel Light Water Power Reactors Natural UF 6 14 Ton cylinders = 8,000 kg UF 6 UO 2 Fuel Rods Enrichment Low Enriched UF 6 Fuel Fabrication Depleted UF 6 Tails

17 Typical Nuclear Fuel Cycle Mining Conversion Enrichment Fabrication Yellowcake U 3 O U=0.711% Natural Uranium Hexafluoride UF U=0.711% Enriched Uranium Hexafluoride EUP 235 U=4.0% Fabricated Fuel UO U=4.0% = 235 U Isotopic makeup of natural uranium: 238 U ~ % 235 U ~ % 234 U ~ %

18 Uranium Mining Major Nuclear Fuel Cycle Companies Cameco (CA) Cogema (FR) Conversion ERA (AU) RTZ (UK) BNFL (UK) Cameco (CA) Enrichment WMC (AU) Cogema (FR) ConverDyn (USA) Minatom (RU) Cogema (FR) MINATOM (RU) Urenco (UK) USEC (USA) Fabrication BNFL (UK) Framatome (FR) GE (USA) MINATOM (RU)

19 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Uranium Mining and Milling Waste Management Program U 3 O 8 Producers, world-wide, sell U 3 O 8 to utilities and traders. 55 Gal. drums = 850 lbs U 3 O 8 Spent Fuel Storage at Reactors Conversion to UF 6 Mining Spent Fuel Light Water Power Reactors Natural UF 6 14 Ton cylinders = 8,000 kg UF 6 UO 2 Fuel Rods Enrichment Low Enriched UF 6 Fuel Fabrication Depleted UF 6 Tails

20 World Uranium Production 1985 vs Million lbs U3O Year USA Other USSR/CIS Canada Australia Africa

21 Uranium Industry 1985 vs Uranium Requirements (M lbs U 3 O 8 ) Uranium Production (M lbs U 3 O 8 ) Supply Balance (M lbs U 3 O 8 ) Commercial Uranium Production Companies 92.5* * * Commercial Uranium Mines * Excludes former Soviet Union

22 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Uranium Mining and Milling Waste Management Program U 3 O 8 Producers, world-wide, sell U 3 O 8 to utilities and traders. 55 Gal. drums = 850 lbs U 3 O 8 Spent Fuel Storage at Reactors Conversion to UF 6 Conversion Spent Fuel Light Water Power Reactors Natural UF 6 14 Ton cylinders = 8,000 kg UF 6 UO 2 Fuel Rods Enrichment Low Enriched UF 6 Fuel Fabrication Depleted UF 6 Tails

23 Uranium Conversion - a chemical process in which natural yellowcake is changed into a fluorine gas to facilitate the enrichment process U 3 O 8 UF 6

24 Active Participants in the World Conversion Industry 1985 vs Today 1985 Today BNFL Cameco Cameco Cogema Cogema ConverDyn ConverDyn Minatom Minatom Sequoyah

25 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Uranium Mining and Milling Waste Management Program U 3 O 8 Producers, world-wide, sell U 3 O 8 to utilities and traders. 55 Gal. drums = 850 lbs U 3 O 8 Spent Fuel Storage at Reactors Conversion to UF 6 Spent Fuel Light Water Power Reactors Natural UF 6 14 Ton cylinders = 8,000 kg UF Enrichment 6 UO 2 Fuel Rods Enrichment Low Enriched UF 6 Fuel Fabrication Depleted UF 6 Tails

26 Uranium Enrichment - a mechanical process in which natural uranium hexafluoride gas is enriched with the 235 U isotope using either centrifuge or diffusion technology UF 6 UF % 235 U % 235 U

27 Active Participants in the World Enrichment Industry 1985 vs Today 1985 Today Cogema Cogema Minatom Minatom DOE Paducah USEC Paducah DOE Portsmouth Urenco DOE Oak Ridge Urenco

28 U.S. Nuclear Electrical Generation vs. Fuel Requirements 800 Nuclear Electrical Generation (BkWh) 60 Fuel Loaded into Reactors (M lbs eu3o8) Annual Growth Rate = 2.4% Annual Growth Rate = 3.8% Net Generation Fuel Loaded into Reactors U.S. reactors operating at higher capacity factors and burnup ratios.

29 Historical Uranium Prices and U.S. Production $ US$ per pound U 3 O 8 M pound U 3 O 8 60 $ $80 40 $60 30 $40 20 $20 10 $ Year Constant 2000$ U.S. Production Requirements 0

30 Major Uranium Production Facilities 2000 Million pounds U 3 O Olympic Dam (AU) Ranger (AU) McArthur River (CA) 10.7% 10.5% 10.4% Rabbit Lake (CA) 7.8% Rössing (NAM) 7.6% Krasnokamensk (RU) 7.3% McClean Lake (CA) Akouta (NI) Cluff Lake (CA) Zholtye Vody (UKR) 3.3% 4.1% 5.4% 6.4% Percentage of Total World Production Top 10 sites account for over 70% of world production, concentrated in the hands of just 6 companies.

31 Secondary Uranium Supply World 100 Million pounds U 3 O Inventories Tails Re-enrichment Russian HEU Kazakh LEU MOX/Reprocessing Year Inventories are not inexhaustible!

32 Supply/Demand Balance World 200 Million pounds U 3 O 8 Requirements Secondary Supply Primary Supply Year Demand and Primary Supply expected to remain steady.

33 Scheduled Uranium Production World 200 Million pounds U 3 O Requirements Inventories Russia/CIS Canada Australia U.S.A. Other Africa Year An unsustainble future. Market must improve!

34 Classification of Scheduled Production 200 Million pounds U 3 O Requirements Marginal Subsidized Low Cost Year Only 60% of scheduled production is truly economic in today s market. Only at prices well above $30/lb is ALL scheduled production at breakeven (cash basis)

35 Uranium Industry Uranium Requirements (M lbs U 3 O 8 ) Uranium Production (M lbs U 3 O 8 ) Supply Balance (M lbs U 3 O 8 ) 92.5* * * Commercial Uranium Production Companies Commercial Uranium Mines * Excludes former Soviet Union

36 World Nuclear Generating Capacity 500 GWe Year Actual Reference Case High Case Low Case In light of climate change and energy supply concerns, capacity anticipated to be above Reference Case Source: The Uranium Institute Market Report 2000, EIA 2000

37 Guess What! $$ Inventories down! Production level! Demand up!

38 Recent U 3 O 8 Price Movement $12.00 $ per pound U 3 O 8 $12.00 $10.00 $10.00 $8.00 $8.00 $6.00 $6.00 Sep-00 Oct-00 Nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Restricted Long Term Unrestricted Price trend upward MUST continue to encourage new production. Source: NUEXCO/TradeTech

39 My early days as a Utah uranium miner...

40 have changed to this!

41 South Texas

42 Today s ISL Technology

43 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle - Past, Present and Future!