The Challenges of a Sustainable Future Alex Baitch FTSE HonFIEAust, CPEng Principal BES (Aust) Pty Ltd

Transcription

1 The Challenges of a Sustainable Future Alex Baitch FTSE HonFIEAust, CPEng Principal BES (Aust) Pty Ltd 2014 National President Engineers Australia 1 A Sustainable Future World Environment Australian Scene Energy scenarios Outline 2

2 A Sustainable Future Purpose Engineers Australia and its members are committed to creating and delivering outcomes that will ensure the long term survival of life on earth in a fair and equitable manner. For our members, sustainability means that future generations will enjoy environmental, social and economic conditions that are equal to or better than those enjoyed by the present generation. Our Code of Ethics requires us to develop engineering solutions that repair and regenerate both natural and social capital, while maintaining economic health. Engineers Australia s Sustainability Policy Nov EA Sustainability Policy Principles In implementing sustainability across any engineering activity, members of Engineers Australia should: 1. Objectively apply engineering knowledge, skill, and experience to achieve measurable outcomes that enhance both natural and social capital. 2. Maintain an up to date knowledge and understanding of sustainability principles, and practices relevant to their area of practice. 3. Seek outcomes that deliver fairness and equity within the present generation as well as between present and future generations. 4

3 EA Sustainability Policy 4. Think holistically, and innovatively, and account for externalities and whole of life impacts, such that there is a net sustainability benefit. 5. Be proactive in addressing risks to the environment, society and the economy. 6. Build shared community value, robustness, and resilience. 7. Always practice within the Engineers Australia Code of Ethics. 5 Sustainability Indicators Wellbeing of society maintained or improved over time: Social and human capital: Skills and education; health; Institutions, governance and community engagement; employment; security Natural Capital Climate and atmosphere; land ecosystems and biodiversity; water; waste; natural resources Economic Capital Wealth and income; housing; transport and infrastructure; productivity and innovation Australian National Sustainability Council Sustainable Australia Report Conversations with the future 6

4 The World Environment World population approx 7.0 billion (Australia now 24 million) 1.2 billion people (17%) do not have electricity 2.8 billion people (40%) rely on solid fuel for cooking and heating Majority of world population has low standard of living 7 The Future Population increase 1 billion in next 10 years Growth mostly in the undeveloped countries Population 9.6 billion by 2050 Potential demand for electricity 200% to 300% of present world capacity 8

5 GDP v Energy Use World Bank 9 GDP vs Energy Efficiency World Bank 10

6 Australian Energy v GDP 11 Energy future of a Sustainable World Australia must have a global perspective World must reduce CO 2 emissions Renewable energy must be large scale Distributed generation whole of life costs must consider life of equipment and maintenance Worldwide, nuclear energy will be a significant component of base load 12

7 Nuclear option India, China moving strongly with nuclear option Nuclear waste being stored worldwide presently in unsuitable locations Australia has vast potential for business opportunities Storage, recycling, leasing The South Australian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission has identified this major opportunity 13 South Australian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission Detailed consideration has been given to SA s participation in nuclear fuel cycle Exploration Extraction Mining Further processing and Manufacture Electricity Generation Management, Storage and Disposal of Waste 14

8 South Australian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission Interim Findings findings/ 15 SA NFCRC Key Interim Findings SA can safely increase participation in nuclear activities Nuclear power greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to other low emission technologies (solar, wind) Value having nuclear as an option for generation although not commercial at present due to NEM Highly profitable opportunity for storage of global used fuel Australia s engineering and technical workforce provides a sound basis for construction nuclear facilities 16

9 Australian Gov t Energy White Paper Green paper released 23 Sep 2014 White paper issued 8 April Australian Gov t Energy White Paper The Energy White Paper was to consider: policy and regulatory reform appropriate role for government opportunities re productive and efficient use of energy distribution infrastructure to deliver efficient national markets alternative transport fuel sources workforce issues, national skills development needs emerging energy technologies and new energy sources future growth in exports of energy products 18

10 Australian Gov t Energy White Paper 19 network transformation roadmap 20

11 transformation roadmap 21 Australian Energy Intensity Due to energy efficiency, shift in activity, reduced energy intensive industry. Large reductions in Victoria & SA 22

12 Asia Pacific Capacity Additions (GW) 23 Asia Pacific Capacity Additions 24

13 Asia Pacific Power Generation (TWh) 25 Australian Source of Energy Resources Australian Government Green Paper on Energy Sep

14 Australia s National Emissions Inventory National Electricity Price Index 28

15 Australian Energy Resource Export Earnings Australian Government Green Paper on Energy Sep Retirement Baseload Power Stations in NSW 30

16 United Nations Sustainable Energy For All initiative (2012) Energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, increased social equity, and an environment that allows the world to thrive. Development is not possible without energy, and sustainable development is not possible without sustainable energy. 31 UN Sustainable Energy for All Initiative Three critical objectives for 2030 Ensuring universal access to modern energy services Doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix 32

17 All three objectives necessary 33 UN Sustainable Energy for All Initiative Action Areas UN Sustainable Energy for All Global Action Agenda

18 Ambassador William Ramsay IEA Expected Exploitation of Renewable Energy Sources CIGRE Paris PRICE OF PHOTOVOLTAIC

19 FUTURE PRICE ENA CSIRO Electricity Network Transformation Roadmap Dec Solar Emphasis in Germany 38

20 Capacity of Utility Scale PV (GW) 25 GW 20 GW 15 GW 10GW 5GW 0 GW 39 Price of Utility Scale Solar Dropping 40

21 Asia Pacific Residential scale PV economics LCOE = Levelised cost of electricity 41 CONCLUSIONS Standard of living and energy consumption related Essential that a global view is taken re a sustainable future Energy efficiency and low CO 2 emission sources key for the future 42

22 Professor Alex Baitch FTSE HonFIEAust, CPEng Principal BES (Aust) Pty Ltd (02)