Energy Sector Development and Economic Sustainability Analysis: Lithuanian State-Funded Smart Grid Project Neringa Radziukynienė

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1 Energy Sector Development and Economic Sustainability Analysis: Lithuanian State-Funded Smart Grid Project Neringa Radziukynienė ETIP SNEP Northern Regional Workshop, October 3-4, 2018

2 Short description of the project Project title: Energy sector development and economic sustainability analysis (supportive measure for updating the National Energy Strategy); Duration: 5 years ( ); Budget: Eur.; Executor: Lithuanian Energy Institute; Status: National (Lithuanian); Final beneficiaries: Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Lithuania

3 The main overarching objectives 1. To create a planning methodology for the energy sector development and economic sustainability analysis; 2. To investigate possibilities and develop recommendations of sustainable integration of new technologies, optimisation of fuel and energy balance and compliance with climate change targets; 3. To formulate the methodological set-ups for evaluation and upgrade of energy performance on state and municipalities levels; 4. To analyse the technical possibilities of Lithuanian energy system for synchronous operation with Continental Europe (ENTSO-E) network taking into account the future generation scenarios.

4 Project Key exploitable results 1. Definition of Enhanced Functions of Smart Grid 2. Network development reference model 3. Optimal integration of future technologies into energy sector 4. Model of Load-Frequency Control of interconnected electric power system 5. Active power balancing mechanism for interconnected power systems 6. Demand side response integration approach

5 1. Enhanced Functions of Smart Grid Distributed Generation Smart customers Energy Storage Systems Flexible Electricity Market Monitoring Control Equipment Electric Vehicles New Services and Businesses 5

6 2. Network development reference model Market-based services from third parties Full-scale implementation Development of grid Pilot projects Implementation stage Evaluation studies Network demand assessment Electricity quality estimation Network reliability estimation Estimation of network stability Economical estimation Generation Energy storage New investment project network extension Voltage deviations Harmonics Surges Non-symmetrical loads new connections network rehabilitation Reliability estimation of network elements Ageing estimation of network elements General network reliability assessment network interconnections Dynamic stability Static stability Investments Operation costs Losses consumer empowerment technical upgrade, automation soft projects 6

7 3. Optimal integration of future technologies into energy sector Local resources Country Local resources Energy sector Oil, gas, other fuel, electricity (smart grids), district heating and other sectors Goods, Services, Cost Branches of economy Industry, Construction, Transport, Agriculture, Commerce and services, Household Max GDP Import/ export Import/ export Analytical framework of optimal integration of future technologies into energy sector 7

8 Dažnis (Hz) 4. Model of Load-Frequency Control of interconnected electric power system P3-2 50,1 P S3 3(KS) P2-3 AR3 ARKIII 49,9 49,8 49,7 P1-3 P1-3 P2-3 AGV3 49,6 49,5 P3-1 TL1-3 L2 L3 TL2-3 P3-2 49,4 49, f3 Laikas (s) 1(LEES) f1 f2 2(KS) PF reguliavimas su ''fuzzy'' PF reguliavimas ARKI S1 AR1 AGV1 TL1-2 L1 P1-2 P2-1 P2-1 P1-2 f1 f4 S2 AR2 AGV2 S4 4(KS) ARKII Aktyvioji galia (MW) P1-4 L4 TL1-4 P4-1 AR4 ARKIV Laikas (s) P4-1 P1-4 AGV4 PF reguliavimas su ''fuzzy'' PF reguliavimas

9 Nominal bid price Bid price with generation risk x Bid price with 5. Active power balancing mechanism for interconnected power systems transmission risk Bid energy price to provide balancing capacity DAY AHEAD/INTRA-DAY AUCTIONS to provide balancing energy ENERGY MERIT ORDER LIST Threshold 1 (P imb = 200 MW) Threshold for winning group capacity energy Threshold 2 (P imb = 350 MW) winning winning winning rejected 2:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 Reserve activation playground Transmission reliability playground Generator reliability playground Nominal prices playground BA-real-time BA-DA-win BA-ID-win BA-DA-rlb BA-ID-rlb BA-DA-nom BA-ID-nom N1 P imb A L G1N1 L-A1 G1 A ~ L G1N2 L G1N3 B G2 ~ N2 P imb B C N3 P imb C x L-A1 ~ G3 x - line not assigned to the considered routes - route-constituing line - transfer route from G1 to node N1 - transfer route G1 - system B - transfer route G1 - system C - line 1 in system A Bidder 1 Bidder 4 Bidder 2 Bidder 3 C o m p e t i t i o n p l a y g r o u n d s s t a g e s t o o l s m e r i t o r d e r l i s t s Balancing Market Design Concept with Risk Assessment // submitted to Scientific Journal

10 6. Demand side response integration approach

11 Articles and conferences in Publications in the journals (ISI) 26 Articles in journals, referred in international scientific databases 28 Chapters to books 12 Presentations in the international conferences 62 Some of them: Radziukynas V., Klementavičius A., Kadiša S., Radziukynienė N. Challenges for Baltic Power System Connecting Synchronically to Continental Europe Network Electric Power Systems Research // Electric Power Systems Research. ISSN Volume 140, November 2016, p ( Norvaiša E., Galinis A. Future of Lithuanian energy system: Electricity import or local generation? (dx.doi.org/ /j.esr ) // Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN X. Vol p Konstantinavičiūtė I., Bobinaitė V. Comparative analysis of carbon dioxide emission factors for energy industries in European Union countries ( // Renewable and sustainable energy reviews. ISSN Vol. 51. p

12 The main lessons learned In developing of mathematical models, the scope, structure and accuracy of available data is of crucial importance; The engagement of energy sector actors (TSO, DSO, companies, municipalities, associations) would be beneficial for Project development. The National Energy Strategy DataBase would be very helpful for future upgrades of this Strategy and the respective models developed in the scope of this Project; The rapid deployment of digital technologies brings uncertainties to future technology development and market designs in energy sector. The ways of how to mitigate these uncertainties should be devised and validated.

13 Needs for future R&I activities coming out of the project When developing/upgrading the mathematical models, to better identify the interplay of various influencing factors To produce more adequate future scenarios for energy transition and digital energy; To make deeper insights into disruptive, breakthrough and cutting-edge technologies To better capture future energy price uncertainties; To find equilibrium between holistic and sectorial approaches in development of energy sector models Ṫo strengthen focus on critical risk identification and contingency management plans in smart energy scenarios

14 Deployment prospects of the most promising solutions The solutions were used by Ministry of Energy for the update of National Energy Strategy (2018) The developed algorithms could be used for the investigation of frequency and power control in the analysis of operational control of Baltic Power system; Maybe, the suggested approaches will be applied in the future reactive power reserves trading platform.

15 The identification of needs for further testing Validation of sensitivity of analytical framework for integration of smart technologies to simultaneous materialization of several risks; Testing for mathematical modeling errors for non-typical scenarios and boundary conditions; The validation of the load frequency control algorithm for cascading disturbances; The validation of active power reserves trading concept for different Scheduled Time Units (0,5 h, 15 min.).

16 The identification of needs for further testing new program new Sustainable development modeling& management of energy sector, : ongoing Lithuanian State-Funded Smart Grid Project

17 Information about the use/need of an inter-regional cooperation Majority of developed models could be used on Baltic States scale; List of future technologies should be regularly reviewed and updated using contributions from European smart grid sector including European technology and innovation platforms (particularly smart networks for energy transition); The consept of active power reserve trading could be extended to cover Continental Europe (Polish) network.

18 Junior research associate Neringa Radziukynienė Lithuanian Energy Institute Tel.: Questions? 18