Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrochemical and Hydrological Regimes of Rivers

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1 Internatonal Journal of Envronmental Scence and Toxcology Research(ISSN: ) Vol. 4(3) pp , Aprl, 2016 Avalable onlne Copyrght 2016 Internatonal Inventon Journals Full Length Research Paper Clmate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrochemcal and Hydrologcal Regmes of Rvers L. A. Margaryan 1, H. A. Melkonyan 2, G. P. Prumyan 3 1 Envronmental Impact Montorng Center, 0046 Yerevan, Armena. 2 Hydrometeorology and Montorng State Servce of Armena, 0002 Yerevan, Armena 3 Yerevan State Unversty, Department of Ecologcal Chemstry, 0025 Yerevan 0025, Armena Receved 15 February, 2016; Accepted 18 March, 2016 Changes n water resources avalablty, stream flow and n rver ecosystems are the major expected mpacts of clmate changes n rver basns. The clmate change s expected to nfluence the quantty as well as the qualty of water resources by, for nstance, ncreasng natural polluton. Consequently, t may lead to deteroraton of water resources and destructon of ecosystems, along wth extncton of endemc speces of flora and fauna. In order to nvestgate the mpact of clmate changes on the rver flow and on the content of salt concentraton n rver water The Rver Flow Substance Quantty Transfer Index (RFSQTI) was appled. The ndex relates the surface water qualty and the hydrochemcal and hydrologcal varables, and as a result provdes flux of a gven chemcal substance by tone along the stream flow. The study was conducted n Marmark Rver, thought to have no drect anthropogenc nfluence. The results ndcated reducton n rver flow and decrease and ncrease n the concentraton of lght and heavy ons, respectvely, portrayed by the ncrease n the hardness of rver water, suggestng a change n the water rver source, wth ncrease n the proporton of the ground water to surface water source. In the absence of major anthropogenc mpacts, these changes are attrbuted to clmate change. They attrbuted these changes to clmate changes. The possble mplcatons of the observed changes n the rverne ecosystems, water supply and water demand, as well as n the agrculture n the rver basn are further dscussed. Keywords: Clmate change, Rver flow, Mneralzaton, Hardness, Hydrochemcal regme. INTRODUCTION One of the serous contemporary challenges n the World s the global clmate change, mpact whch has already felt across the globe. Due to ncrease n ar temperature and reduce of precptaton, the shortage of water supply and an ncrease n water demand are enhanced. Accordng to the World Bank assessment, Armena s among the most senstve countres n the Europe and Central Asa regon n regard to clmate change, the mpact of whch has been already revealed on freshwater resources of the country. Based on longterm meteorologcal studes, there s a decrease n the maxmum and mnmum rver flow by 3-5% for the most of the rvers n the country (UNDP, 2013; Sarksyan, 1999). In the last 80 years, the average annual ar *Correspondng Author Emal: lana_margaryan@yahoo.com temperature n the country has been ncreased by C and the average annual precptaton has been decreased by 6% (CCIC, 2009). However, changes n temperature n varous regons of Armena and durng dfferent seasons show dfferent trends, as well as the spatal dstrbuton of average annual precptaton (Hydrologcal Year Books, ). Due to these meteorologcal changes, n recent decades ( ), the ntensty and frequency of hazardous hydrometeorologcal phenomena have ncreased by cases per year (CCIC, 2009). The water resources n the central part of Armena are partcularly scarce n the densely populated Hrazdan Rver watershed, ncludng t the major trbutary of Marmark Rver (CCIC, MNP, 2009). Around 50% of the total volume of the Marmark rver flow s subject to sgnfcant annual varatons: the rver flow n dry years less than 65% of the one n an average year, as well as there are sgnfcant seasonal varatons n the rver flow.

2 Margaryan et al. 37 Around 55% of the total rver flow of the Hrazdan and Marmark Rvers n a normal year comes from sprng snow melt and ranfall, and the rato of maxmum to mnmum flow can reach to 10:1 (CCIC, MNP, 2009). The hydrochemcal regme for each rver s determned by hydrologcal parameters (feedng source, rver flow, ar temperature, precptatons, etc.), changes of whch wll nfluence by the hydrochemcal content of rver water. Thus, the global clmatc change, s expected to nfluence the quantty as well as the qualty of water resources by, for nstance, ncreasng natural polluton. Consequently, t may lead to deteroraton of water resources and destructon of ecosystems, along wth extncton of endemc speces of flora and fauna (Margaryan et al., 2010). There are several hydrologcal studes related to quanttatve assessment of rver flow condtons due to changes on clmate ndcators that are lsted n the USAID (2012) research report. Most of these studes used often, hypothetcal scenaros of possble changes of ar temperature and deposts, as a rule, due to clmate change (USAID, 2012). However, there are seldom studes on the water resources qualty changes caused by clmate change. The hydrochemcal qualtatve and quanttatve changes are lkely to occur n the case of alteraton of the hydrologcal regme. The exstng methods of water qualty assessment under clmate change are based on several mathematcal models (Smth, 1976). Sometme they are dffcult to apply, and need long-term data seres. The present study nvestgates the mpact of the clmate change on water resources, namely, the rver runoff and concentraton of the major ons, applyng new and easy assessment approach method, whch combnes the water quantty and qualty. The study was conducted n the Marmark Rver Basn (the man stream of Hrazdan Rver) n Armena, thoughtfully to have mnor anthropogenc nfluence. METHODOLOGY Study area The selecton of the Marmark Rver Basn (as a plot rver basn) s based on the followng prncples and crtera: avalablty of seres (long perod) of systematc observatons and exstence of all major hydrologcal and hydrochemcal data (Hydrologcal Year Books, ; Hydrochemcal Year Books, ), and the water basn has to be representatve for the country n terms of hydrologc, hydrochemcal and clmatc characterstcs (Chlngaryan et al., 2002). Marmark Rver Basn s locked between Tsaghkunyats and Pambak mountans (Fgure 1), on average, at an alttude of 2300 m above sea level. The basn s relef s typcal mountanous wth very fractoned valleys and gorges. Ths catchment basn s domnated wth mpervous rocks. About 12 per cent (50 sq.km) of the basn s area s covered wth forest where bg-anther oak and Caucasan hornbeam domnate. The rver s length s 37 km and ts catchment basn s area s 427sq.km. The rver head locates n Tsaghkunyats mountan chan at an alttude of 2520 m above sea level. The rver s trbutares are Gomur, Erkarget and Ulashk rvers. Marmark Rver feeds on meltng snow (55%), ran (18%) and groundwater (27%) (Chlngaryan et al., 2002). Marmark Rver s the bggest trbutary to Hrazdan Rver. The Rver s water s manly used for rrgaton, hydro energy, muncpal and santary servce and ndustral purposes (Chlngaryan et al., 2002). As of 2007, about 3.4 mllon cubc m water ntake was made n Marmark Rver basn for rrgaton, about 3.6 mllon cubc m as drnkng water and for muncpal and santary servces, about 4.7 mllon cubc m for ndustral needs and 38.4 mllon cubc m for hydro energy purposes. In fact, annual amount of water ntake n Marmark Rver basn for general purposes makes about 32.3 per cents of the Rver s annual flow, whle the rest s n free flow, 111 mllon cubc m per annum, and ecologcal flow 6.3 mllon cubc m (Statstcal Year Books, ). The long-term statstcal data of meteorologcal observaton (Hydrologcal Year Books, ; Statstcal Year Books, ) ndcated that the mean-annual ar temperature and precptaton has ncreased at the regon of Marmark Rver Basn. There s lack of data about meltng ce, whch are n a lttle amount and located hgher than 3800m sea level. However, the ncreasng ar temperature was accompaned by ncreasng evaporaton, whch may have cause the reducton n the rver flow. Also, annually ncreased precptaton has dstrbuted unequal durng the seasons. Most of the amount of ranfall occurs durng the sprng. Due to abundant precptaton n the sprng the floods n the Marmark Rver reach, very often, the envronmental rsk level. The precptaton reduces to less than 2 tmes n summer and autumn (for example, there were no any regstered ranfall on November of 2010 (Hydrologcal Year Books, )), whch leaded to low water n rver (Hydrologcal Year Books, ; Statstcal Year Books, ). The Rver Flow Substance Quantty Transfer Index (RFSQTI) Nowadays, hydrochemcal assessment of rvers s based on ntegrated methods, whch can unquely determne the ecologcal status of water body, the level of water polluton and ts change due to anthropogenc mpact. Frequently, as the general tool for expressng ntegrated assessment result of water polluton of a waterbody s the Water Qualty Index (WQI) (Margaryan, 2009). WQIs have dfferent structure, the lst of accounted

3 38 Int. J. Envron. Sc. Toxc. Res. Fgure 1. Locaton of Marmark rver basn n Armena hydro parameters and unque assessment mechansm of water polluton dependng on the purpose of water consumpton. All knds of WQIs are drected to sum up the man hydrochemcal, bologcal and/or hydrologcal data n a sngle ntegrated unt, through whch t becomes possble to classfy water body by polluton level. The calculaton of WQI s based on logarthmc modfcatons of each hydrochemcal or bologcal or hydrologcal parameter data through a set of mathematcal equatons, whch also nclude maxmum avalable concentraton and background concentraton for the parameter. Only a few amount of these WQIs can ntegrate both hydrochemcal and hydrologcal data at the same tme (USAID, 2012). In order to combne the hydrologcal and hydrochemcal parameters for ntegrated assessment of water resources changes as a result of clmatc changes of the regon, t was suggested new model The Rver Flow Substance Quantty Transfer Index (RFSQTI) (Nkanorov, 2004; Margaryan et al., 2010). Through RFSQTI t s possble to calculate annual or monthly quantty of transferrng substance by rver flow. Also, t s allowed for long-term calculaton dynamcs, usually per fve years. The model has wde spectrum of hydrochemcal parameters, such as mneralzaton, heavy metals, hardness, total ntrogen, phosphorus and etc, flux calculaton. If the absence of sgnfcant anthropogenc mpacts on water body s consdered, the annual flux of subject substance can be determned as follow (Nkanorov, 2004; Margaryan, 2009): RFSQTI W C n 1 Where W s the rver water flow durng tme perod (m 3 /sec); C s average concentraton of the hydrochemcal parameter durng tme perod (mg/dm 3 ), RFSQTI s unt s tons by year. For monthly calculaton t becomes: (1) RFSQTI W C (2) n 1 In ths case RFSQTI s unt s tons by month. If there are no any data about concentraton of subject hydrochemcal parameter (or the hydrologcal data of rver), the Index value can be calculated as comparson wth analog rver for the flux amount of the same substance. It could be determned as follow (Nkanorov, 2004; Margaryan, 2009): RFSQTI a W RFSQTI (3) Wa Where W s the rver water flow of the study rver and W a for analog rver (m 3 /sec); RFSQTI a s calculated for analog rver. The analog-rver s the rver comparable or semcomparable dscharge and geochemcal regon of flow wth the study rver. Ths knd of RFSQTI's determnaton s ndcatve, and t could become more accuracy f the analog-rver wll be chosen not only as comparable wth

4 Margaryan et al. 39 rver flow, but also comparable wth hydrochemcal content (Nkanorov, 2004). When the anthropogenc mpacts on water body are sgnfcant, they should be calculated and excluded from the (1) equaton. It can be acheved by anthropogenc component of the RFSQTI and determned as follow (Nkanorov, 2004; Margaryan, 2009). RFSQTI RFSQTI K RFSQTI (4) а p Where RFSQTI a s the anthropogenc component of flux amount of subject substance for relevant perod, RFSQTI p s the total amount of flux amount of the substance for relevant perod, RFSQTI f s the background amount of flux amount of the substance, K B correcton factor for the dfference of water flow durng the study and background perods. The background perod, n ths case, s determned as the tme, when were absent any antropogenc nfluence on rver's hydrochemcal regme or ther mpact was uncertanty. Mostly, that tme perod s consdered up to 1980, because of the human mpact on natural water resources was extremely ncreased n the comng years (Margaryan, 2009). The relatve error of calculaton of RFSQTI for (1) and (2) s determned accordng to assumptons of the theory of errors. It was determned as follows (Nkanorov, 2004): SC S S (5) 2 W 2 K Where S C s the relatve error for RFSQTI calculaton for tme perod, S W the relatve error of determnaton of rver flow for tme perod, S K the relatve error of determnaton of average concentraton of transferrng substance for tme perod. The relatve error for determnaton of rver flow (S W ) s approxmately 10%, n the case of determnaton method was defned as "velocty-area" wth usng of hydrologcal turntables, whch was the mostly used method n practce. The relatve error of determnaton of average concentraton of transferrng substance s determned as follow (Nkanorov, 2004): B ( C a ) SK (6) C n Where σ 2 B standard devaton of the tme seres of the average concentratons n the rver secton; C- the average concentraton of transferrng substance for tme perod, ν а relatve error of the method of analyss, n the number of water samples for tme perod. Summarzng, absolute error (ΔRFSQTI ) for RFSQTI calculaton for tme perod was determned as follows (Nkanorov, 2004): RFSQTI RFSQTI S (7) The suggested new model (RFSQTI) n the present study has a computer based calculaton n MsExcel program based on Margaryan et al. (2009). The scrpts B G f n Excel resolve the Equatons (1, 4, 5,6 and 7) consderng the nput varables whch are rver flow, concentraton ranges of transferrng substances, relatve error of the method of analyss, and etc. Samplng Hydrologcal and hydrochemcal measures The nvestgatons took place n a fxed pont n Marmark Rver Basn, upstream Hanqavan vllage (Fgure 2). The samplng pont was located near the rver source, where there are no major anthropogenc nfluences on the basn (Observaton statons, 2003). So, t was consdered as a water body wth natural hydrologcal regme. The hydrologcal observatons of Marmark Rver were performed durng the n the Meteorologcal Staton of Armenan State Hydrometeorologcal and Montorng Servce SNCO ( 57 samplng pont, on Fgure 1) (Observaton statons, 2003). The observaton conssted of rver runoff usng hydrologcal turntables methods (Sargsyan, 2006). The hydrochemcal observatons of Marmark Rver were performed durng n the samplng pont, at about 0.5km upstream of Hanqavan vllage ( 57 samplng pont, on Fgure 1) by Envronmental Impact Montorng Center SNCO (Observaton statons, 2003). The water samplng were made 6-7 tmes per year, manly from Aprl to November, accordng to ISO (2006). From the water samples the Mneralzaton and Total hardness was determned. The mneralzaton of the rver water were determned as the sum of major lght ons (calcum, manganese, potassum, sodum, sulphate, chlorde, bcarbonate) (Fomn, 2000). The total hardness of water was determned as the sum equvalents of calcum and manganese ons (Standard methods for the examnaton of water and wastewater, 1998). The concentratons of calcum, manganese, potassum and sodum were determned by ICP-mass spectrometrc methods on ISO (2005) va Elan 9000 devce. Concentratons of sulphate and chlorde were determned by on-chromatography method accordng to ISO (2007) va Donex 1000 devce. The concentratons of bcarbonate n water samples were determned by Turbdmetrc method on GOST :069 (02)-77 (Gudance on chemcal analyses of surface wtare, 1977). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Assessment of changes n hydrologcal regme of Marmark Rver Basn Marmark Rver flow data (Fgure 2) reveal the nterannual varablty, whch observed durng the perod

5 crops cultvaton and rrgaton: the sol s not enough warm, the felds don t need to be rrgated, 40 Int. J. Envron. Sc. Toxc. Res. due to hgh precptatons. (a) (b) Fgure 2. Long-term hydrologcal observaton results for Marmark rver, durng the perod , (a) annually changes of rver flow and (b) monthly changes of rver flow. Fgure 2. Long-term hydrologcal observaton results for Marmark rver, durng the perod , (a) annually changes of rver flow and (b) monthly changes of rver flow The hydrologcal measurements showed that the rver flow was decreased. The Rver flow was reduced by tmes durng the 13 years of study. The reducton n the rver flow was lkely caused by change n the ar temperature and precptaton. The Fgure 2b shows monthly average changes of the rver flow over the entre perod of observaton (13 years). It shows seasonal varaton n rver flow, wth mnor devaton over the tme. The comparson of study results wth hstorcal data (Hydrologcal Year Books, ) n Fgure 2a showed that clmatc parameters, especally ar temperature, evaporaton and precptaton, changes effect not only on annual changes of rver flow, but also on Marmark Rver flood perod. The rver s flood perod became about a month early n relaton to baselne values of If n the future the rver flood observed on May, n the present, t observed on Aprl. These hydrologcal regme changes of Marmark Rver may nfluence dramatcally on water use n the entre area of the rver basn. The reducton and hghly unequal seasonal dstrbuton of rver flow wll nevtably affect on water supply and water demand and lead the water shortage for rrgaton and recreaton water use. The change of rver s flood regme may also mpact on agrculture. Natural and clmatc condtons of Marmark Rver basn allow cultvatng a lmted number of crops: wheat, late-rpenng potato, vegetables n small quanttes (e.g. cabbage) and forage crops. Thus, the Aprl s not perfect tme for these crops cultvaton and rrgaton: the sol s not enough warm, the felds don t need to be rrgated, due to hgh precptatons. Assessment of the hydrochemcal regme of Marmark Rver Basn Long-term hydrochemcal studes of Marmark Rver have shown that the mneralzaton of the rver was fallng down (Fgure 3a, b). The mneralzaton reduced n 1,5-1,8 tmes over the last 8 years. Generally, the hghest mneralzaton were observed n October and November (n autumn), when the streamflow of Marmark have been on mnmal level. Meanwhle, total hardness of the water were ncreased by straght lne, whch was the opposte to water mneralzaton trend (Fgure 4a, b). However, the Fgures 5a and b says that trend of the total hardness ncrease was 1.28 tmes hgher than mneralzaton reducton. The total hardness of Marmark Rver water was ncreased by 2 tmes n the last 8 years. The hghest values of total hardness, as well as mneralzaton, were observed durng low streamflow level, bascally n autumn. In general, when the rver has mostly groundwater supply, the concentratons of calcum, magnesum and sulfate ons n rver water are hgher than concentratons of other general ons (Alekn, 1970; Sadovnkova et al., 2006). Otherwse, n the case of surface supply of rver, the concentratons of sodum, potassum and chlorde ons are domnated. Thereby, these knds of seasonal changes of mneralzaton and total hardness of Marmark Rver are the result of changes of the rver supply sources. The anthropogenc nfluence n rver and extensve geologcal changes of ths regon durng 13 and more years were not regstered, whch leads to consder that the changes of Marmark Rver supply sources mght be as the result of global clmate change (Hydrologcal Year Books, ; Chlngaryan et al., 2002). The clmatc change of ths regon has caused some devaton n hydrologcal regme of the rver n relaton to baselne of (Hydrologcal Year Books, ). If, the majorty part of the rver supply source was surface water n the past, nowadays, the rver feeds bascally on groundwater source. So, the rver feeds on groundwater source got hgher on 10% (became 37-47%

6 Margaryan et al. 41 rver supply sources. (a) (b) Fgure 3. Long-term montorng Fgure 3. Long-term data of montorng Mneralzaton data of for Mneralzaton Marmark for rver, Marmark durng rver, the durng perod the perod , (a) annual and (b) monthly changes. (a) annual and (b) monthly changes. because of ranfall shortage n summer and autumn. (a) (b) Fgure ggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg 4. Long-term montorng data of Total hardness for Marmark rver, durng hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh the perod , (a) annual and (b) monthly changes. mneralzaton) (Hydrochemcal Year Books, ). (a) (b) Fgure Fgure 5. The 5. Rver The Rver Flow Flow Substance Substance Quantty Quantty Transfer Transfer Index Index (RFSQTI) data data for for Marmark Rver Rver Flow, Flow, durng the perod the , perod , (a) RFSQTI (a) values RFSQTI for values Mneralzaton for Mneralzaton and (b) RFSQTI and (b) sum RFSQTI values sum for values Mg and for Ca. Mg and Ca. Fgure 5. The Rver Flow Substance Quantty Transfer Index (RFSQTI) data for Marmark Rver Flow, durng the perod , (a) RFSQTI values for Mneralzaton and (b) RFSQTI sum values for Mg and Ca.

7 42 Int. J. Envron. Sc. Toxc. Res. except on 27% (Chlngaryan et al., 2002)), because of ranfall shortage n summer and autumn. Due to ths knd of hydrologcal regme devaton of Marmark Rver, the hydrochemcal regme also suffers. As a result, the concentratons of chlorde, sodum and potassum ons decreased, whch cause the reducton of mneralzaton, despte of ncreasng of concentratons of calcum, manganese and sulfate ons. The trend of latest ones concentratons growth s more than reducton of concentratons of chlorde, sodum and potassum ons. These cause the ncrease of salnty of rver, whch s serous envronmental challenge that wll be able to have destructve mpact on the rver basn ecosystem. The statstc shows, that 2.1% of annual amount of water ntake n Marmark Rver s used for rrgaton (Chlngaryan et al., 2002). Thus, the ncreasng of heavy ons concentraton n rver water wll be, nevtably, effect on acceleraton of sol salnzaton process n entre area of the Marmark Rver Basn. Clmate change mpact assessment on Marmark Rver Basn va RFSQTI To nvestgate of correlaton between rver flow, mneralzaton and total hardness changes for Marmark Rver, t s necessary to combne the rver's hydrologcal and hydrochemcal data. For ths propose t was offered to use RFSQTI model. It was determned the transferrng amount of mneralzaton, Mg and Ca through RFSQTI model by Marmark Rver flow for (Fg. 5). The RFSQTI values for Mg and Ca were added. As a background concentratons for the hydrochemcal parameters the montorng data for baselne perod the were consdered (no older hydrochemcal data are avalable) (Hydrochemcal Year Books, ) (mneralzaton was 216 mg/l (RFSQTI=12tons/year), Total hardness was 0.3mmol/l (RFSQTI Mg,Ca =0.13tons/year)). Based on the assessment result, the slghtly reducton of RFSQTI values for mneralzaton were observed, that means 92.5% of mneralzaton reducton n the rver water (Fg. 3a) depends on the reducton of rver flow and remanng 7.5% s caused by other reasons. The correlaton between monthly data of rver flow and mneralzaton showed the drect relatonshp: the mneralzaton s reduced n parallel wth the rver flow. The low concentratons for mneralzaton n the rver water were concded wth rver flow low values, and vce versa. Thus, t turns out that mneralzaton of the rver dd not change and the observed varatons were natural adaptaton example of clmate change, ams to stablze to hydrochemcal regme for new reduced streamflow of the rver. In ths case, t would have not been appeared any negatve mpact on the rver basn ecosystem. However, the RFSQTI calculaton results for total hardness (Fg. 5b) have shown the hgh mpact on hydrochemcal regme of rver due to rver flow reducton. Durng process to adapt to new knds of clmate parameters (more precptaton, hgh evaporaton, less streamflow), the rver's ecosystem also seeks to mantan water balance. As a result, the rver s startng to feed more from groundwater sources. These are causng to ncrease of total hardness n water of the rver. The monthly varatons of mneralzaton and total hardness concentratons n the rver also approved that there s the process of change of rver's feedng type. If the man sources of supply for Marmark Rver were meltng water and atmospherc precptaton n past (about 55%) (Chlngaryan et al., 2002), now the underground supply became domnate. As a result the concentratons of heavy ons, such as Mg and Ca, were ncreasng (ncrease n total hardness) and lght ons, such as Na, K, Cl, were decreasng (reduce n mneralzaton) (Hydrochemcal Year Books, ). Based on the RFSQTI assessment for total hardness, the content of heavy ons n rver water ncreased n 2,5 tmes due to slght changes of the rver flow n only last 7 years. The flux mneralzaton amount for mneralzaton was reduced by 2 tmes and the flux amount of sum equvalent amount of manganese and calcum was ncreased by 4.4 tmes n relaton to baselne of ((Hydrologcal Year Books, ; Hydrochemcal Year Books, ). CONCLUSION Due to clmatc changes there were observed the slght reducton of mneralzaton and rver flow for Marmark Rver, as well as the ncrease n the total hardness was recorded over last 8 years. The RFSQTI assessment results showed that the flux mneralzaton and sum equvalent for Mg and Ca amounts were several tmes changed n relaton to baselne of These changes explaned by the changes of the rver's sources supply types. As a result, the salnty of the rver water s ncreasng, that may lead the poor water qualty for water supply and rrgaton. The reducton of rver flow and ncrease n total hardness n the long-term perod leads the water shortage and usage of poor water qualty n the entre area of the Marmark Rver. Moreover, water qualty and quantty changes of the Marmark Rver wll have hgh mpact on rverne ecosystem: change the bodversty of rver due to heavy ons concentraton ncrease, deconstructon of ecosystem. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the people at our study stes for ther generous support, wthout whch ths study would not have been possble. The authors wsh to specal thanks the Envronmental Impact Montorng Center and Hydrometeorology and Montorng State Servce of Armena staff for ther support throughout the research.

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