Workshop Context and Objectives

Transcription

1 Workshop Context and Objectives Air Pollution Management Workshop Ulaanbaatar, April 10, 2008 Gailius Draugelis Senior Energy Specialist, World Bank Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,

2 Ulaanbaatar is one of the coldest capitals in the world it need not be one of its most polluted. Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,

3 International Average Annual PM 10 Concentrations Beijing Ulaanbaatar Cairo London UB Annual Average PM10 Concentrations measured at National University of Mongolia and compared with other sources of information, including NAMHEM, these are estimates based on best available information to be verified in winter 2008 Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,

4 Initial Findings of WB work (1) in cooperation with UB city & Min. of Nature & Environment Air Quality Monitoring Some PM monitoring has taken place since last winter, but source apportionment capacity is lacking a critical element in identifying clearly sources of air pollution and monitoring effectiveness of measures Diverse sources of air pollution (unusual) Dust could be up to 50% of the problem Accumulated from coal burning Lack of Green Areas & Unpaved roads Construction Dust storms Ger heating, garbage burning, etc. other 50% Coordination among local agencies to share information, equipment, staff capacities is necessary to make optimal use of assistance from different d sources (France, JICA, GTZ, WB, Korea) and provide comprehensive information to the public Coordination framework under development with Korean Trust Funded program. Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,

5 Preliminary Estimated Social Costs of UB s Air Pollution* Estim ated Health and Social Costs of Excessive PM Concentrations in UB (2006) Estim ated Avg. Ann Concentrations 150 Health Effects M o rta lity 353 Chronic bronchitis 2,999 Respiratory hospital adm issions 840 Asthm a attacks 91,280 Em ergency room visits 16,478 Restricted activity days 2,817,500 Lower respiratory illness in children 35,490 Respiratory sym ptom s 8,967,000 Social Costs M o rta lity $ 57,153,600 Chronic bronchitis $ 58,476,600 Respiratory hospital adm issions $ 354,900 Asthm a attacks $ 575,064 Em ergency room visits $ 207,623 Restricted activity days $ 14,932,750 Lower respiratory illness in children $ 156,156 Respiratory sym ptom s $ 39,454,800 Total $ 171,311,493 % GDP (2006) 6% *Figures are estimates based on best available information, to be verified by more precise measurements in winter 2008 Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,

6 Initial Findings of WB work (2) in cooperation with UB city & Min. of Nature & Environment Donor Coordination Since June 2007, heightened donor interest and new programs under development. Bank side mobilized about $1 million in TA funding for various activities, of which about $350,000 spent this year. 43% executed by GOM. In UB, diversity of views exist among technical experts, politicians, and government on a sustainable approach to air pollution management UB Master Plan for Air Pollution not adopted, many resolutions on air pollution, but there is an implementation gap some promising developments Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,

7 Initial Findings of WB work (3) in cooperation with UB city & Min. of Nature & Environment Market Research 60% households live in larger single family homes with larger energy needs, more families will move into SFH Households clearly willing to switch to apartments, better fuels and better stoves but cost is a major concern Heating expenditures 42 % of total income in poorest quintile; 26% in second poorest quintile Fuel and Stove Testing Combustion efficiency focus lacking in previous stove programs refocus on emissions performance of appliances rather than fuel efficiency is needed Laboratory and staff capacities inadequate to carry out full compliance testing for emissions standards (PM emissions / MJ fuel use) a critical gap in clean, affordable heating strategy With current equipment, initial findings suggest no heating appliance / solid fuel combination meets current emission (<2% CO/CO 2 ) standards. Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,

8 Sequencing Issues Options: Housing, Fuel Switch, Insulation, Better Heating Appliances, Road Paving, Greening, Better sector performance (solid waste, district heating) Issues to consider are economic cost/benefit, affordability, Short or Long Term? Time to market: capital intensive solutions take time Sustainability Technical and financial feasibility Emissions performance of old appliances with new fuels Market penetration and payback Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,

9 Workshop Objectives Learn of new Central and UB City Government s s policies on air quality improvement Discuss Options and Issues to Address to ensure sustainable policy outcomes, share views & international experiences Update on donor support programs and share findings Air Pollution Workshop, April 10,