Vulnerability of the U.S. Electricity Grid to Climate and Water

Transcription

1 Vulnerability of the U.S. Electricity Grid to Climate and Water Presented by Jordan Macknick Energy - Water Land Lead Analyst National Renewable Energy Laboratory April 5, 2018

2 Vulnerability of the US Electricity Grid to Climate and Water Jordan Macknick, Ariel Miara, Matthew O Connell, Charles Vörösmarty, Robin Newmark, Greg Brinkman, Josh Novacheck, Vince Tidwell, Balazs Fekete Payne Institute Colorado School of Mines April 5, 2018

3 Energy and Water are interconnected Energy production requires water Thermoelectric cooling Hydropower Extraction and mining Fuel Production Emission controls 2011 U.S. interconnected water and energy flows Water production, distribution and treatment require energy Pumping Treatment Transportation Heating (End use) Source: The Water-Energy Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities, DOE, July, 2014 NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 2

4 Addressing energy-water resilience challenges requires integrated approaches Energy Technology Pathways How We Use Our Energy Improved water efficiency in bioenergy systems, fuels extraction Water-efficient cooling for electricity generation Influences/Forces on the System Responding Challenges/ to Technology in the Energy-Water Solutions System Coupled water and energy efficiency Climate Change (Mitigation and Adaptation) Treatment, management, and beneficial use of nontraditional waters Sustainable water utilities Policy and Institutional Changes Land Use & Land Cover Change Stakeholder and Consumer Preferences Population/ Migration Urbanization & Infrastructure Dynamics Regional Economic Development Sources: U.S. EIA, 2015, Bauer, 2015 NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 3

5 NREL Integrated Research Energy-Water Analysis System co-evolution and performance (techno-economic/environmental/policy) Focus on resilience and efficiency Multifunctional Materials New water filter elements and membranes, utilizing computational materials and process design to functionalize for selective separations Low-cost, roll-to-roll manufacturing Renewable-powered and zero-emission flexible desalination technologies Co-optimizing energy and water systems Renewable Water Purification Water-Grid Integration Smart water and energy systems Dynamic water infrastructure/operations, providing electric grid services, flexibility Advanced microgrid designs and operations to manage energy and water loads Evolving a dynamic, co-optimized system

6 Power plants have shut down due to water constraints in the past Macknick et al., 2016; DOE 2014; Averyt 2016; Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014 NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 5

7 What about the future? Up to 16% average reduction in power plant capacity Questions 1. Is this real? 2. What if we use higher resolution models? 3. What if we used a multimodel framework and power systems knowledge? NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 6

8 How do we measure power sector vulnerability to climate and water? Three Metrics to Assess Performance: Traditional Approach: 1. Adjusted available capacity of individual units as a percentage of nameplate capacity Power Systems Context: 2. Probability of meeting current (2015) peak power output 3. Thermoelectric reserve margins at 19 NERC regions Steam, once-through Steam, recirculating Steam, dry Combined-cycle, once-through Combined-cycle, recirculating Combined-cycle, dry Models: Water Balance Model + Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (WBM-TP2M) River Network Resolution: 3 minute, ~25km 2 grid cells Time Resolution: Daily, May-September (days=153) Control climate ( ) Future RCP8.5 climate ( ) Power Plant Infrastructure: 1,080 cooling-based power plants (year 2015) Cooling-based Capacity (2015) NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 7

9 How do current climate and water affect individual power plants? Current climate impacts on individual power plants Temperature + Water Changes Miara, A., Macknick, J.E., Vörösmarty, C.J., Tidwell, V.C., Newmark, R., Fekete, B., Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply. Nature Climate Change 7, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 8

10 How will future climate and water affect individual power plants? Change in Condenser Inlet Temperatures Under Future Climate Temperature + Water Changes Miara, A., Macknick, J.E., Vörösmarty, C.J., Tidwell, V.C., Newmark, R., Fekete, B., Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply. Nature Climate Change 7, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 9

11 How will future climate and water affect individual power plants? Future climate impacts on individual power plants National: ~2.5% reduction Range: -31% to +6% Miara, A., Macknick, J.E., Vörösmarty, C.J., Tidwell, V.C., Newmark, R., Fekete, B., Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply. Nature Climate Change 7, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 10

12 How do climate and water affect individual power plants expected requirements? Miara, A., Macknick, J.E., Vörösmarty, C.J., Tidwell, V.C., Newmark, R., Fekete, B., Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply. Nature Climate Change 7, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 11

13 How do climate and water affect power system regions? LEFT: Contemporary RIGHT: RCP Reserve Margin (Percentage) POWER SYSTEMS CONTEXT: RELIABILITY (%) % reduction 2-7% reduction 0 BASIN CAL N CAL S DES SW NWPP RMPA ERCOT FRCC Central Delta SE SPP VACAR Gateway MISO MRO ISO NE NY PJM Reserve margins characterize regional power supply reliability, representing excess capacity of expected peak (2015) demand Despite constraints on individual plants, power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates Climate water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, highlighting the need to integrate climate water constraints on power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and systems management Western Interconnection ERCOT Eastern Interconnection NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 12

14 Key Findings from this exercise This study is the most comprehensive (1,080 power plants) and uses highest spatial resolution (0.05 river network spatial resolution vs. coarser 0.5 resolution) This study is unique in its approach of considering power systems context Climate change could reduce available capacities of 99% of individual power plants But power system as a whole appears adaptable to future climate impacts Regional impacts and adaptation strategies can differ substantially Without a power systems context, studies addressing climate impacts on the power sector could overstate the extent of power system vulnerability Is this good enough to address power sector vulnerability? NO! What else is needed? Future infrastructure, future climate, future electric loads Grid operations modeling Additional metrics Multiple energy pathways NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 13

15 The Largest Coordinated Power System in the World 14

16 NREL s ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) Model - a premier tool for U.S. electricity system capacity expansion modeling Projects electric sector growth to 2050 under different economic, technology, and policy assumptions Spatially resolved into 356 wind/solar regions, 134 balancing areas (BAs) for demand and other renewables Generation technologies Coal (pulverized, IGCC, & IGCC-CCS) Nuclear Natural Gas (combustion turbine(ngct), combined cycle(ngcc), & CC-CCS) Biomass (dedicated, cofired with coal, landfillgas/msw) Geothermal (hydrothermal & EGS) Hydropower, Marine Hydrokinetic Solar (concentrating solar power & PV) Wind (onshore & offshore) Storage: pumped hydropower storage, CAES, batteries Demand-side technologies: plug-in hybrid/electric vehicles (PHEVs), thermal energy storage in buildings, interruptible load Serves load, meets planning and operating reserves requirements, and obeys physical constraints See also: Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Mai, T.; Mowers, M.; Uriarte, C.; Blair, N.; Heimiller, D.; Martinez, A. (2011). Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS).NREL Report No. TP-6A NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 15

17 Freshwater availability and cost have recently been defined at the national level Groundwater Availability Appropriated Water Unappropriated Water Wastewater Brackish Groundwater Cost (Unappropriated Water Cost is negligible) Sources: Tidwell, V.; Zemlick, K.; Klise, G. (2013). Nationwide Water Availability Data for Energy-Water Modeling. SAND Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Laboratories. SNL: Tidwell et al., Mapping water availability, projected use and cost in the western United States. Environmental Research Letters 9: NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 16

18 Two primary types of power plant cooling systems Low Withdrawal High Consumption High Withdrawal Low Consumption Source: Union of Concerned Scientists NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 17

19 Changes in runoff (annual) ( ) under scenarios of climate change Moderately Hot Climate Scenario: increases in annual unappropriated water availability in many parts of the West, with decreases in the Southeast Hot and Dry Climate Scenario: widespread reductions in annual unappropriated water availability, with increases in the Northeast Percent changes in runoff in each climate scenario on an annual basis NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 18

20 Changes in unappropriated water availability ( ) under scenarios of climate change Moderately Hot Climate Scenario: increases in annual unappropriated water availability in many parts of the West, with decreases in the Southeast Hot and Dry Climate Scenario: widespread reductions in annual unappropriated water availability, with increases in the Northeast Unappropriated water availability in the Southwest remains zero as there are many over-appropriated basins The Southeast is projected to have lower water availability under both climate scenarios New England is projected to have higher water availability under both climate scenarios Blue indicates more unappropriated water available under climate scenario Red indicates less unappropriated water available under climate scenario NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 19

21 Regional differences in capacity builds under scenarios of climate change for PV, Wind, NGCC, and Coal: climate-induced changes in water 2050: Hot-Dry climate - no Constraints PV Wind Preliminary results NGCC More PV is built in the SE Wind is built throughout the U.S. Coal NGCC is built throughout the U.S. Coal is retired in the South and West Green = more Red = less NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 20

22 The Largest Coordinated Power System in the World 21

23 Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) Bloom et al., 2016 NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 22

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25 ERGIS Study Outcomes What ERGIS demonstrated: o High RE system can operate reliably and cost-effectively o Tradeoffs and feasibility of balancing High RE systems Curtailment, interchange, ramping, energy storage What ERGIS did NOT do: o Climate-water induced vulnerability 24

26 Evaluating future climate impacts on future infrastructure Climate-driven impacts on water resources (Water Balance Model) Electricity Production Cost Model (PLEXOS) Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (TP2M) NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 25

27 Business as Usual Scenario Current State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Regional transmission upgrades ~10% Renewable Generation 26

28 High Renewable Scenario 30% of all electricity demand is met by wind (20%) and solar (10%) Same transmission as BAU A future where large scale transmission is difficult and solar grows significantly 27

29 Climate-Water Impacts on ERGIS Generation What are generation differences due to climate under BAU? Natural Gas Combustion Turbine (Peaker) Natural Gas Combined Cycle (Flexible) Coal (Baseload) Nuclear (Baseload) Coal: 4-6% reduction in summer months Nuclear: 5-8% reduction in summer months NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 28

30 Climate-Water Impacts on ERGIS Generation What are generation differences due to climate under High RE? Natural Gas Combustion Turbine (Peaker) Natural Gas Combined Cycle (Flexible) Coal (Baseload) Nuclear (Baseload) Coal: 2-3% reduction in summer months Nuclear: 4-7% reduction in summer months NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 29

31 Climate-Water Impacts on Regional Generation (BAU) Every region shows a change in generation mix and total generation Some regions increase (or decrease) exports due to national dynamics Some regional increases in coal generation NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 30

32 Climate-Water Impacts on Regional Generation (High RE) Different impacts from the BAU scenario for some regions Changes in magnitude and sign Regional interplay is important NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 31

33 Climate-Water Impacts on Contingency Reserves Climate impacts combined with other planned outages and grid dynamics can lead to shortage in reserves The High RE scenario shows fewer and less extreme cases of reserve shortages than BAU NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 32

34 Initial Takeaways from BAU vs. High RE Scenarios High RE scenario is less affected by climate o Solar and wind can be drought proof technologies Total system cost increases due to climate are lower for High RE scenario ($1.1B/yr vs. $1.6B/yr) Regional interactions play a key role Some (of many) remaining questions: o What happens under higher penetrations of renewables? With improved transmission? Under a nuclear/coal renaissance? o What is the full range of potential outcomes using a suite of climate scenarios? o How do different systems respond to extreme events? o What would happen with the inclusion of environmental or energy policy? o What happens further out into the future? NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 33

35 Broader Conclusions Climate-water vulnerability studies of the power sector must o Use a power systems context o Consider the evolution of power sector infrastructure and demand o Model grid operations, constraints, and connectivity Power sector operations and capacity expansion models must consider climate and water impacts Much research to do to better link energy models with climate and water models o Appropriate spatial resolution, temporal resolution, degree of modeling coupling, uncertainties, etc. Caution regarding definitive and extreme statements NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 34

36 Thank You NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

37 Operational water withdrawal rates (gal/mwh) Source: Macknick, J., Newmark, R., Heath, G., and Hallett, KC Operational water consumption and withdrawal factors for electricity generating technologies: a review of existing literature. Environmental Research Letters. 7 (045802). NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 36

38 Operational water consumption rates (gal/mwh) Source: Macknick, J., Newmark, R., Heath, G., and Hallett, KC Operational water consumption and withdrawal factors for electricity generating technologies: a review of existing literature. Environmental Research Letters. 7 (045802). NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 37

39 Operational water consumption rates (gal/mwh) Low Carbon Technologies Natural Gas Combined Cycle Source: Macknick, J., Newmark, R., Heath, G., and Hallett, KC Operational water consumption and withdrawal factors for electricity generating technologies: a review of existing literature. Environmental Research Letters. 7 (045802). NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 38

40 Life cycle water consumption across life cycle stages for representative electricity generating technologies Manufacturing Fuel Cycle Operations Source: Meldrum et al., 2013 NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 39

41 In Colorado, agriculture is the dominant water user Source: CFWE, 2013 NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 40

42 Water use by power plant in Colorado Source: CFWE, 2013 NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 41

43 CUNY Modeling Tools Water Balance Model + Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (WBM-TP2M): River flow and temperature Power plant operations Power output and losses associated with climate-water constraints, environmental regulations Thermal pollution NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 42