Leapfrogging electrification in Tanzania. wishful thinking or a reasonable option?

Transcription

1 Leapfrogging electrification in Tanzania wishful thinking or a reasonable option? Sverker Molander Environmental Systems Analysis Energy & Environment Chalmers University of Technology

2 Why electrification?

3 Why leapfrogging?

4 What is there? Large and quickly growing rural populations Non-commercial and inefficient energy systems Typically few BIG hydropower plants Very low electrification rates in rural regions Very slow grid extension, often not a viable solution for rural electrification

5 Several developing countries have launched programs for introduction of RET Many failures often due to sociotechnical mismatches (Murphy 2001; Brent & Kruger 2009) Needs production, growth, education, health services Unexploited fossil resources

6 Renewable energy sources (RES) are there! Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro & biomass Solar energy Wind speed Tidal currents Tidal range Illustrated data compiled from published local measurements and remote sensing data (NASA Eosweb)

7 What should be there? Productive commercial ( modern ) energy systems - electrification! (e.g. Dalal-Clayton et al. 2003)) Development of small solitary grids (Molander et al. 2008) Combinations of several renewable energy sources (RES)/ technologies (increased reliability in small grids) (Ehnberg 2007) Self-sufficiency and increasing returns - development & growth!

8 How to leapfrog?

9 Global climate change drives interest and efforts for renewable energy International instruments may economically support RET in developing countries financing! (Duic et al. 2003; Duokas et al. 2009) For technology absorption, an energy system has to meet local demands and preconditions (Murphy 2001; Mulder & Tembe 2008)

10 Technical and economical prerequisites tech-knowledge : Appropriate scale Accessible & Affordable Maintenance Infrastructure for installation Profitable Theft and vandalism Generation reliability

11 Social/institutional prerequisites - innovation: Access & Acceptability Gender issues Ownership Risk/benefit sharing Initiative/motivation Management/Organisation Power

12 Productio n of renewable energy Productiv e use of energy

13 So There are significant efforts towards expansion of renewable energy sources even among the most poor countries Where resources are abundant, appropriate renewable energy technologies may find niche markets Specific technical and business model adaptions may be important to meet the preconditions of developing country markets A productive use is a key for development! Institutional arrangements are very influential energy systems are socio-technical systems! 13

14 Leapfrogging energy systems - a reasonable option!

15 Investigating prerequisites and consequences Socio-technical-ecological evaluations of potential renewable energy systems STEEP-RES Chalmers in collaboration with University of Gothenburg University of Dar es Salaam, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane, Luleå University of Technology ACRA, SKF, students... Helene Ahlborg, Erik Ahlgren, Frida Boräng, Jimmy Ehnberg, Linus Hammar, Sverker Jagers, Cuthbert Kimambo, Birger Löfgren, Andrea Nightingale, Joseph Maskara Ngowi, Patrik Söderholm, Luca Todeschini