Partly based on the IEE Ecoheatcool project findings,

Transcription

1 Making an inefficient energy system in Europe more efficient Sven Werner, professor Halmstad University, Sweden Partly based on the IEE Ecoheatcool project findings, Brussels, Dec 1,

2 Outline 1. Inefficient energy system in Europe 2. Heat recycling can increase the system efficiency 3. Expansion of current district heating systems and the available resources 4. Two time horizons: 2020 and Barriers for expansion of district heating systems 6. Some concluding proposals Brussels, Dec 1,

3 1. Input-output analysis in 4 steps EJ European Union - 27 during 2006 Total Primary Energy Supply = 76,3 EJ Heat losses, central conversion (energy sector) Heat losses, local conversion (consumers) Heat losses, end use inefficiency Combustible renewables and waste Solar/wind/other Geothermal 50 Hydro 40 Nuclear 30 Natural gas Total Primary Energy Supply (IEA statistics) Total Final Consumption (IEA statistics) Total End Use (estimated) Total Efficient End Use (estimated with 30% inefficiency) Petroleum products Coal and coal products Transportation Electricity Heat Brussels, Dec 1,

4 1. Some activities are more inefficient than others EJ Input-Output analysis for various parts of the energy system EU27 in Output: Consumer end use of energy Input: Total primary energy supply Electricity District heat Fuel for heat - Industrial sector Fuel for heat - Other sectors (buildings) Fuel for transportation Brussels, Dec 1,

5 1. Some activities are more inefficient than others EJ Input-Output analysis for various parts of the energy system EU27 in 2006 Heat losses Output: Consumer end use of energy Input: Total primary energy supply Electricity District heat Fuel for heat - Industrial sector Fuel for heat - Other sectors (buildings) Fuel for transportation Brussels, Dec 1,

6 1. Some activities are more inefficient than others EJ Input-Output analysis for various parts of the energy system EU27 in Recycling of heat losses Heat losses Output: Consumer end use of energy Input: Total primary energy supply 0 Electricity District heat Fuel for heat - Industrial sector Fuel for heat - Other sectors (buildings) Fuel for transportation Brussels, Dec 1,

7 1. Inefficiency conclusions The EU27 energy system generates large amounts of conversion heat losses (60 % of the input) due to energy inefficiency. Inefficient parts dominate the energy system. The most efficient part is small: The district heating systems recycle only 2 EJ. Hereby, the total conversion heat losses are reduced from 48 to 46 EJ. Brussels, Dec 1,

8 2. Heat recycling and renewable resources today in European district heating systems Thermal power plants, also called Combined Heat and Power (CHP) or Cogeneration, using 8% of total available heat resources Waste incineration in Waste-to to-energy plants, using 7% of total available non-recycled waste Industrial processes having useful waste heat flows, using less than 3% of total available heat resources Biomass, using 1% of the current potential Geothermal, using 80 ppm of the current potential Brussels, Dec 1,

9 2. The fundamental idea Heat recycled from combined heat and power, waste incineration, and industrial surplus heat Renewables as geothermal heat and biomass Fossil fuels The fundamental idea of district heating District Heating System Heat delivered for low temperature heat demands Heat losses Brussels, Dec 1,

10 2. Heat supply composition PJ/year EU27 - Heat sources for district heating etc 100% 80% Fossil fuels, direct use 60% Renewables, direct use (geothermal, biomass, and waste) 40% Recycled heat, renewable CHP (waste and biomass) 20% Recycled heat, fossil CHP and industries 0% Brussels, Dec 1,

11 3. Expansion possibilities Current district heat market share is less than 10% in EU27 Doubling market share and improving the energy supply will give substantial benefits: Lower carbon dioxide emissions, 400 million tons per year Lower import dependence, 4.5 EJ Lower primary energy supply, 2.1 EJ Brussels, Dec 1,

12 3. District heating: The five strategic heat flows Heat flows in EJ during 2003 for the target area of 32 countries Residual heat from all thermal power generation 19,2 Potential for direct use of geothermal heat 370 Industrial CHP 1,8 1,6 0,03 Biomass potential 2,3 District heat generated ,17 0,14 0,03 1,1 Surplus heat from industries 0,5 Waste incinerated Brussels, Dec 1, ,0 Non-recycled waste

13 3. Expansion possibility geothermal resources Brussels, Dec 1,

14 3. Use of combustible renewables vs forest growth Total Primary Energy Supply of Combustible Renewables, GJ/capita 100 Blue line for 100% of net annual increment Latvia Sweden Finland Green line for 20% of net annual increment 10 Greece Denmark Spain Portugal Austria Slovenia Lithuania France Poland Czech republic Estonia Norway 1 Netherlands United Kingdom Italy Belgium Ireland Croatia Luxembourg Slovak Republic 0,1 1,0 10,0 100,0 Net annual increment of the forest growing stock, m3 ob/capita Figure 18. National per capita combinations of total primary energy supply of combustible renewables (excluding the biomass part in municipal waste) and the net annual increment of the forest growing stock. Reference lines added for 20% and 100% fuel use of the net annual increment, assuming a net calorific value of 7,3 GJ/m 3 ob. Brussels, Dec 1,

15 3. Expansion potential Half of the short term expansion potential in EU27 can be found in Germany, France and United Kingdom. The corresponding residential market shares for district heating are currently 13 %, 5 %, and 1%, respectively. Brussels, Dec 1,

16 4. Two time horizons 2020, short term mitigation time horizon: Most changes must be fulfilled within the existing energy system with a low share of new technology 2050, long term mitigation time horizon: Possibility to create a completely new energy system with a high share of new technology Brussels, Dec 1,

17 4. Short term example: Fast extensive natural gas substitution by heat recycled from a large pulp mill The extension of the district heating system in Varberg has increased the district heat market share from 6% to 45%. The corresponding carbon dioxide emissions have decreased with 40%. Annual sales, TJ/year 600 Varberg, Sweden Natural gas District Heat, mainly based on recycled industrial waste heat Brussels, 2002 Dec 1,

18 Market share 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 4. Long term example: Everything is possible in 40 years The Swedish heat market for buildings in the residential and service sectors District heat Electric heating incl heat pumps Others as firewood and natural gas Fuel oil 0% Brussels, Dec 1,

19 5. The main barriers for higher energy efficiency Low cost fossil fuels Our legislations relate mostly to use of fossil fuels and do not recognise energy efficiency Carbon taxes and carbon dioxide trading are in general not strong enough City mitigation projects requires often local actors, not always present today Short term investment horizons in energy companies Brussels, Dec 1,

20 6. Some concluding proposals Redesign all legislation to consider energy efficiency Do not allow large heat losses without heat recycling in new power or industrial plants, according to the best available technology (BAT) principle in the IPPC directive Redesign all international energy statistics to consider energy efficiency and distributed generation Use only Joule (J) as energy unit, giving a more transparent energy market Brussels, Dec 1,

21 The End Thank you for your attention! Brussels, Dec 1,

22 Some back-up slides Brussels, Dec 1,

23 Final consumption by customers before local conversion losses EJ 25 European Union - 27 during 2006 Total Final Consumption = 53,9 EJ Combustible renewables and waste Solar/wind/other 20 Geothermal 15 Natural gas 10 5 Petroleum products Coal and coal products Electricity 0 Total Industry Sector Total Transport Sector Total Other Sectors Heat Brussels, Dec 1,

24 Our common history USD/barrel Crude oil, import price to Europe until August real 2008 USD jan-60 jan-65 jan-70 jan-75 jan-80 jan-85 jan-90 jan-95 jan-00 jan-05 jan-10 jan-15 Brussels, Dec 1,

25 Electricity och gas dominates in Europe (2003) EJ heat Final end use of net heat and electricity for EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 with origin of supply Solar/Wind/Other Combustible Renewables and Waste Coal and Coal Products Industrial sector Residential sector Service sector Petroleum Products Natural Gas Electricity Geothermal Heat Brussels, Dec 1,

26 2003: Residential electricity och heat demands Residential end use of net heat and electricity, MJ/m ACC4 EFTA3 Luxembourg Latvia Finland EU15 NMS10 EU15 average line Belgium Austria Slovenia Hungary Germany Poland United Kingdom France Czech republic Estonia Sweden Lithuania Norway 400 Greece Italy Croatia Romania Denmark Cyprus Bulgaria Turkey 200 Malta Portugal Spain European heating index for the capital in each country, C % Brussels, Dec 1,

27 German cities District heat share of city heat demands in some German cities 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Augsburg Berlin Bielefeld Bochum Bonn Bremen Darmstadt Dortmund Dresden Düsseldorf Erfurt Essen Frankfurt (Oder) Frankfurt am Main Freiburg im Breisgau Göttingen Halle an der Saale Hamburg Hannover Karlsruhe Kiel Koblenz Köln Leipzig Magdeburg Mainz Brussels, Dec 1, Mülheim a.d.ruhr München Mönchengladbach Nürnberg Potsdam Regensburg Saarbrucken Schwerin Trier Weimar Wiesbaden Wuppertal

28 French cities District heat share of city heat demands in some French cities 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ajaccio Amiens Besancon Bordeaux Caen Cayenne Clermont-Ferrand Dijon Fort-de-France Grenoble Le Havre Lille Limoges Lyon Marseille Metz Montpellier Nancy Nantes Nice Orleans Paris Brussels, Dec 1, Pointe-a-Pitre Poitiers Reims Rennes Rouen Saint Denis Saint-Etienne Strasbourg Toulouse

29 Dutch cities District heat share of city heat demands in some Dutch cities 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Amsterdam Arnhem Eindhoven Enschede Groningen Heerlen Rotterdam Brussels, Dec 1, s' Gravenhage Tilburg Utrecht