Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution

Transcription

1 Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution IPES 2011 Madison, Wisconsin Michaël Aklin New York University Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 1 / 17

2 Introduction Introduction How does trade affect the global environment? Efficiency vs. pollution haven hypothesis. Hypotheses based on space and time support the pollution haven hypothesis. Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 2 / 17

3 Introduction Introduction How does trade affect the global environment? Efficiency vs. pollution haven hypothesis. Hypotheses based on space and time support the pollution haven hypothesis. Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 2 / 17

4 Context Introduction Trade and the environment: Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 3 / 17

5 Introduction Context Environment and development: the EKC Environmental Kuznets Curve - CO2 CO2 per Capita (t) GDP per capita (k) US Spain India France China Brazil Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 4 / 17

6 Time Timing of Development Time: late developer should: Pollution haven: pollute more. Efficiency hypothesis: pollute same or less. Are late developers polluting more or less than early developers ceteris paribus? Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 5 / 17

7 Time Timing of Development Time: late developer should: Pollution haven: pollute more. Efficiency hypothesis: pollute same or less. Are late developers polluting more or less than early developers ceteris paribus? Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 5 / 17

8 Results Time CO2 per capita i,t = γlate Developers i,t + X i,t β + ε i,t OLS P-Match Late Developer 0.494*** (0.155) GPD per capita 0.249*** 0.173*** (0.051) (0.041) (GDP per capita) *** (0.002) (0.002) Control var. y y Continent FE y y Year FE n n Obs Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 6 / 17

9 Results Time CO2 per capita i,t = γlate Developers i,t + X i,t β + ε i,t OLS P-Match Late Developer 0.494*** (0.155) GPD per capita 0.249*** 0.173*** (0.051) (0.041) (GDP per capita) *** (0.002) (0.002) Control var. y y Continent FE y y Year FE n n Obs Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 7 / 17

10 Space Spatial Diffusion of Pollution Space: trade shifts production across borders. Efficiency hypothesis: no effect on environmental Kuznets curve. Pollution haven: environmental Kuznets curve disappears. Spatial modeling. Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 8 / 17

11 Space Spatial Diffusion of Pollution Space: trade shifts production across borders. Efficiency hypothesis: no effect on environmental Kuznets curve. Pollution haven: environmental Kuznets curve disappears. Spatial modeling. Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 8 / 17

12 Results Space CO2 per capita i,t = ρw i,j,t CO2 per cap j,t + X i,t β + ε i,t FE S-2SLS Spatial CO 2 per capita *** (0.000) GDP per capita 0.212*** 0.147*** (0.018) (0.015) (GDP per capita) *** 0.001** (0.001) (0.000) Control var. y y Country FE y y Obs Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 9 / 17

13 Results Space CO2 per capita i,t = ρw i,j,t CO2 per cap j,t + X i,t β + ε i,t FE S-2SLS Spatial CO 2 per capita *** (0.000) GDP per capita 0.212*** 0.147*** (0.018) (0.015) (GDP per capita) *** 0.001** (0.001) (0.000) Control var. y y Country FE y y Obs Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 10 / 17

14 Conclusion Conclusion Developing countries are pollution havens Industrialized countries outsource their pollution Gains in the North appear to be a trade-related artifact Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 11 / 17

15 Conclusion Thank you for your attention. Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 12 / 17

16 Conclusion Appendix Control variables Income per capita (and squared term) Democracy Population and population density Oil prices Continent, country, and year fixed effects Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 13 / 17

17 Appendix Conclusion Table 2: Summary Statistics (1) count mean sd min max CO2 per Capita (t) GDP per capita (k) GDP per capita (squared) (k) Democracy (Polity IV) Industry (% GDP) Service (% GDP) Population (K) Population density (people per sq. km) Oil Prices (2009 USD) OPEC Member CO2 per capita (s-weighted) GDP per capita (s-weighted) e e e+10 Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 14 / 17

18 Appendix Conclusion Mean Standard Deviation 34 Variable Sample Treated Control Treated Control GDP per capita (k) Unmatched Matched GDP per capita (square) (k) Unmatched Matched Democracy Unmatched Matched Table 3: Balance of covariates, post-matching. Compares the mean and standard deviation of the unmatched s the matched sample on the three covariates of interest. Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 15 / 17

19 Appendix Conclusion Table 6: Carbon Dioxide Consumption (1) (2) (3) (4) FE PCSE 2-SLS S-2SLS GDP per capita (k) (0.065) (0.075) (0.073) (0.077) GDP per capita (squared) (k) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) Democracy (Polity IV) (0.013) (0.013) (0.013) (0.013) Industry (% GDP) (0.009) (0.009) Population (K) (0.000) (0.000) Population density (people per sq. km) Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development & The Environment: The Diffusion of Pollution 16 / 17

20 Appendix Conclusion Table 7: Spatial 2-SLS Second Stage (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) FE PCSE 2-SLS S-2SLS S-2SLS SO2 per capita (s-weighted) (0.000) (0.001) (0.001) GDP per capita (k) (0.001) (0.001) (0.000) (0.001) (0.001) GDP per capita (squared) (k) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Democracy (Polity IV) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Industry (% GDP) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Population (K) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Population density (people per sq. km) Michaël Aklin (New York University) Trade, Development (0.000) & The Environment: (0.000) The Diffusion(0.000) of Pollution (0.000) 17 / 17