The Present Status and the Future Prospect of Fossil Fuels

Transcription

1 The Present Status and the Future Prospect of Fossil Fuels Yuka Sato, Shigeki Kobayashi (billion ton C) 6 Carbon Emissions Others 4 yy yy yy yyy Natural gas 2 ;y yy Oil Coal The increase in global CO 2 emissions ( ) % OECD 55% OECD4.6.5 ( 1993 ) OECD : 12 (billion) 1 World Population Developing Countries 2 yyyyyyyyyy Developed Countries World population ( ). R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )

2 Fig. 1 IPCC ( ) C 125cm 212 C 1 ( ) 53% 7%16%13% 73% 16%28%37% 8% 5cm Nuclear yyyyyyyyy 3 ( N. America yyyyyyyyy Oil Coal yyyyyyyyyyyyy ) C.&S. America yyyyyyyyyyyyy Hydro Europe yyyyyyyyy Former Soviet U. ;yyyy Natural Gas yyyyyyyyyyyyy M. East yyyyyyyyyyyyy Africa yyyyyyyyyy yyyyyyyyyy Asia & Oceania yyyyyyyyy WORLD yyyyyyyyy % Primary energy consumption pattern by area (1995). billion ton (oil equivalent) Electricity 5 Generation Primary Energy Final Consumption ; Losses etc. 4 Industry section OECD yy (.96 b. ton) Oil Electricity 3 (1.55 b. ton) Transport sector (1.3 b. ton) 44.6 ( Coal Residential & ) Commercial & ; Natural ;yother sector 42.5% ( 19.8% ) 1 Gas (1.1 b. ton) ; ( 2.6% ) Non-energy Use Nuclear (.12 b. ton) 82.9% Others (4.46 b. ton) (3.12 b. ton) 35% Primary energy flow in OECD countries (1994). ; ; ; ; R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )

3 ( ) CO 2 SO x NO x /Production (R/P) Ratio [year] Oil 64.7 Natural Gas 228 Coal Production Consumption ;y ;y C.&S. America ;y ;y ;y ; ; ; ; ;y ;y C.&S. America Production Consumption Oil Middle East Coal Natural Gas Africa F.S.U. Asia & Oceania ;y ;y ;y N. America Europe N. America F.S.U. Africa Middle East Europe Asia & Oceania ;y ;y F.S.U. Middle East C.&S. America y Africa Production y y N. America Europe Asia & Oceania Consumption y Proved [b. ton oil equivalent] Comparison of fossil fuels reserves (1995) % Distribution of fossil fuels reserves, production, and consumption by area (1995). R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )

4 3 ( ) 7% 8% ( ) ( ) ( ) Fig. 9I CH H 2 O ( ) 1% 8 ; ; Gasoline Germany Japan USA LPG Naphtha Heavy Oil Jet Fuel Kerosene Light Oil Gasoline Others % Comparison of oil products consumption pattern (1995) Kerosene Light Oil Heavy Oil Daqing (China) Arabian Arabian Light Heavy (Saudi Arabia) Difference of oil ingredients by producing area. R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )

5 (1) ( )(2) 25 ( ) ( ) m 3 m 3 ( 1/1 2m m 3 ) 44m 3 ( 6m 3 ) ( ) Diameter:.86nm Diameter:.788nm Indian Ocean Crystal structure of gas hydrate (structure I). Antarctic Continent Arctic Ocean Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean Map of methane hydrate discovery. 4% 58%? : Oil-in Place 7 trillion bbl Cumulative Production 74 b. bbl Recoverable by EOR Unrecoverable by Current Technologies Proved 1 b. bbl Undiscovered 51 b. bbl 2-7 b. bbl Ultimately Recoverable 2.25 trillion bbl bbl:barrel (159 liter) The difinition of oil reserves. R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )

6 : ( ) : ( ) ( 1159 ) EOR ( Enhanced-Oil-Recovery ) EOR EOR 2 7 EOR ( ) 5 Proved ( billion bbl) 16 R/P Ratio Proved R/P Ratio (year) Amount of Oil (trillion bbl) Estimates of Ultimately Recoverable Proved EOR Heavy Oil Ultimately Recoverable Cumulative Production Various Projections of Oil Consumption Range of Major Projections Projection of Cumulative Production Proved reserves and R/P ratio of oil. Forecasting oil exhaution by estimates of reserves, and projections of consumption and production. R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )

7 ( ) ( ) ( ) Fig EOR (1)GDP (2)GDP (3) (4) GDP ( ) GDP 1993 GDP ( GDP199 GDP ) 25, 53361/5 1/7 GDP GDP GDP NIES ( ) GDP Energy Consumption / Population 8 6 (oil equivalent ton) Singapore 4 France Korea 2 China Taiwan Japan Hong Kong India Thailand GDP / Population (199 US$) US Germany Relation between primary energy consumption per capita and GDP per capita ( ). R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )

8 GDP GDP 8593log-log GDP GDP25IPCC2 3 ( ) Fig. 15 Fig Log [Oil Consumption / Population] (ton) Log [GDP / Population] (199 US$) Oil consumption per capita and GDP per capita. Oil Consumption GDPFig GDP ( ) (billion ton) IS92e (High Growth case) IS92a (Standard case) IS92c (Low Growth case) China Year Forecast of oil consumption up to 25. India R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )

9 Atomospheric CO2 Concentration (ppm) Global Temperature Change( C) High Growth Low Growth Data from Ice Core at the Antarctic Pole ppm 2.5 C High Economic Growth Forecast by IIASA Low Economic Growth CO 2 emissions and temperature change (IIASA). 1) :, (1993), 298, 2) : '96, (1996), , () 3) Bos, Eduard., et al. : World Population Projections , (1994), World Bank 4), (1993), 38, 5) : IPCC2, (1996), 48, 6) The British Petroleum Company : BP Statistical Review of World Energy, (1996) 7) OECD : Energy Balances of OECD Countries , (1996), 75 8) :, (1996) 9) OECD : Energy Balances of OECD Countries , (1996), ), 2 : 21, (1994), 11) : "",, (1996), 116, 12) BP : BP Statistical Review of World Energy DISKETTE, (1995) 13) :, (1991), 91 14) : 1995/96, (1995), 157, 15) : 1995/96, (1995), , 16), 7 : ":,, ", Y941, (1994), 63 17) OECD : Energy Balances of OECD Countries , (1995) 18) OECD : Energy Statistics And Balances of NON- OECD Countries , (1995) 19) : IPCC2, (1996), 68, 2) IIASA : Working Paper WP-95-12, (1995), Ph. D. R&D Vol. 32 No. 2 ( )