Making sense of energy in a chaotic environment

Transcription

1 Making sense of energy in a chaotic environment by Chris Yelland CEng

2 Outline Economic and social landscape Financial risks and issues Power generation landscape Chaotic planning, and the chaotic future outlook Grid defection and the utility death spiral Critical success factors in an uncertain world Business continuity in a chaotic electricity environment Energy crisis? What crisis? Opportunities unlimited

3 Economic and social landscape Low GDP growth Weakening currency Low productivity Low competitiveness High levels of poverty Labour unrest Rising population Increased urbanisation Poor education Skills deficit High unemployment Poor service delivery

4 Financial issues and risks Uncertainty Rates of exchange Interest rates Oil and gas prices Changing structure of SA economy Reduced energy intensity in SA Supply and demand forecasts and planning Timing (economic, commodity cycle)

5 Power generation landscape Over dependence on coal as primary energy source Over dependence on Eskom as the dominant monopoly supplier Aging fleet of coal-fired power stations Time and cost over-runs on new mega power plants Rising electricity prices and declining electricity demand Shortages and surpluses of generation capacity Eskom financial and environmental sustainability problems

6

7

8

9

10 Chaotic planning No published Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) No published Gas Utilisation Master Plan (GUMP) Outdated Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity IRP Massive cost and time overruns at Medupi, Kusile and Ingula Poor maintenance planning Under-supply and over-capacity

11

12 The chaotic future outlook An uncertain world with an unpredictable future Inability to forecast electricity demand for even 5 years ahead, let alone 20, 30, 50 or 100 years Disruptive technologies Solar PV Energy storage Electric vehicles Smart grid ICT and Apps Price uncertainty and the learning curve

13

14

15

16 Critical success factors in an uncertain world From central planning to market driven From public sector utilities to private sector From monopolistic to competitive From mega-projects to smaller projects From central to distributed generation From inflexible to flexible From slow dinosaurs to nimble adapters From the fossil age to the knowledge economy Evolution and survival of the fittest

17

18

19

20 Grid defection and the utility death spiral Rising utility electricity prices Declining electricity demand The electricity supply cake get smaller Rising utility electricity prices Grid defection The utility share of the cake gets smaller Rising utility electricity prices More grid defection

21

22

23

24

25

26 Commercial Cactus Farming in South Africa

27

28 UHURU: BIOMASS TO 55 MWE ELECTRICITY Zero Emission Cost Effective Energy Supply UHURU Process Fermentable BioMass to Energy Fermentable BioMass BioGas Digester Compress BioGas 20 MWe +

29

30 Energy crisis? What crisis? So do we have an energy crisis in South Africa? We are rich in natural energy We are rich in human energy We have a youthful population with lots of unfulfilled potential We do NOT have an energy crisis, we have a management crisis!

31 Opportunity unlimited!