Using Prometheus weather files. Andrew Cripps Sustainable Development Group AECOM

Transcription

1 Using Prometheus weather files Andrew Cripps Sustainable Development Group AECOM

2 Contents AECOM SDG Our work on Climate Change Adaptation Modelling approach and weather data summary Wellcome Trust Building London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Next steps 2

3 Sustainable Development Group Bridge between research and design Design low carbon buildings and developments Developed and integrated approach to mitigation and adaptation Adaptation experience focused on planning and strategy development, capacity building

4 In-house Capabilities and Experience

5 SDG Environmental BREEAM Assessment Energy Strategy Energy Modelling Bespoke Eco Ratings Sustainability Champion Sustainability Statements Climate Change Adaptation Policy Development & Review Sustainability Statements Research & Development Building Regs Updates

6 Policy Development, Research and Review

7 Climate Change Adaptation Experience 7

8 AECOM and climate change Technology Strategy Board projects 2012 Olympics Legacy Adaptation Strategy Partnership for Schools Adaptation Study Hertfordshire Building Futures Adaptation Module LCLIPs for North Yorkshire (local climate impact profile) 8

9 Current projects Funded by TSB The Hub at Hinxton LSHTM Welland School nr Peterborough NW Cambridge Masterplan

10 What is Climate Change Adaptation? Reducing risks from anticipated changes in climate Overheating Flooding Ground changes Storm damage Water shortages

11 Methodology Identify key climate risks Model impacts Identify adaptive solutions Assess costs and benefits Develop adaptation strategy Incorporate into design Feedback and review Feedback and review

12 Risk analysis Consequence Likelihood Risk = Likelihood x Consequence Insignificant (1) Minor (2) Moderate (3) Major (4) Catastrophic (5) Very unlikely (1) LOW LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM Unlikely (2) LOW LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH Moderate (3) LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH EXTREME Likely (4) LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH EXTREME Almost certain (5) LOW MEDIUM HIGH EXTREME EXTREME

13 Modelling approach and weather data summary 13

14 Dynamic Thermal Modelling DT models use: Building description Weather data Equations for air and heat movement We mainly use IES Probably the market leader We helped create it! 14

15 Weather data summary To run models we need to know for each hour of the year: Air temperature Humidity level Wind speed and direction Solar radiation (cloud cover) Weather tape also includes Rainfall 15

16 Where does Prometheus come in? UKCP09 gives climate information We need weather tape Prometheus provides it 16

17 Drybulb temperature for Hinxton, now and Dry bulb temperature [ C ] Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Baseline 2080future 17

18 Humidity levels: kg/kg 18

19 Solar radiation: not much change Average cloud cover, 0 is clear sky 19

20 Cooling degree days Daily averaged Cooling degree-day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Baseline 2080future Cooling degree-days comparison between baseline and 2080

21 Wellcome Trust EBI 2, Hinxton 21

22 IES model Many zones complex building 22

23 Ventilation approaches Air conditioned (fan coil system) Air conditioned (IT Hub) Mechanical extract (includes transition spaces) Mainly air conditioned, so main issue is to reduce cooling loads... 23

24 Heating/Cooling Loads Plant demand [ MWh ] Space heating load Baseline 2080future Space cooling load Chillers will have to operate at higher capacity for longer Less efficient due to higher external temperatures Impacts on energy use and CO2 emissions

25 Adaptive measures Improve glazing and external shading Room layout planning Improving building fabric Use of thermal mass and night purging Additional allowance in cooling capacity Efficient lighting and controls, thin-client PCs Plant sizing, more efficient system and smarter controls 25

26 Impact of solar control glazing 600 Plant demand [ MWh ] Reduction in cooling with SKN Baseline 2080future Baseline 2080future With SKN154 Heating Increase in heating with SKN154 Without SKN154 Cooling Reduction in cooling with SKN154 26

27 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine 27

28 LSHTM Design Constraints Planning Constraints Grade II listed (i.e. conserving character): Windows Facade Conservation area: (i.e. aesthetics) Windows Facade Roof visibility

29 Physical Constraints: Existing external plant...

30 Weather Projections for LSHTM from Prometheus Dry bulb temperature [ C ] Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Baseline 2050future 2080future Daily-averaged baseline, 2050Future and 2080future external dry-bulb temperature comparison

31 Climate summaries: London Environmental parameters Units Baseline 2050future 2080future Annual cloud cover Oktas Average global radiation W/m² Annual precipitation mm Average air moisture content kg/kg

32 IES model 32

33 Cooling degree days Daily averaged Cooling degree-day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6190baseline 2050future 2080future 33

34 34

35 What can we do about it? Improve glazing: reduce g-value from 0.87 to 0.38 (U-value improves from 3.67W/m²K to 1.6W/m²K) Reduce lighting from 15W/m² to 10.8W/m² including occupancy sensing Reduce equipment loads in offices 25W/m² to 10W/m² 35

36 Over-heating Hours > Hours > now 2050 now 2050 Current Better Windows Lower lighting Less small power All 3 measures

37 Some rooms have cooling: impact on loads Building cooling load MWh now MWh 2050 Original state no upgrade Improve window g-value Reduce lighting load Reduce equipment load All 3 steps

38 Thermal comfort theory (ISO EN 7730) 38

39 Thermal comfort theory cont... 39

40 Predicted mean vote / Predicted % dissatisfied Hours for > 10% > 50% now 2050 now 2050 Now Windows Lower lighting Less small power All 3 measures

41 Conclusions / next steps 41

42 Next steps / Conclusions Projects: Test other solutions e.g. Clothing Cost assessments Client decision and implement Looking at other impacts (flood, ground, storms) General Prometheus helps us bridge the gap between UKCP09 and modelling Expect CCA to be more important in future 42