Climate change and water resources: Floods and drought management

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1 Climate change and water resources: Floods and drought management Dr. Amir Givati Israeli Hydrological Service - Water Authority

2 Major Climate Change threats: The water sector Decrease in total water volumes (quantity and quality) Inter-annual variability (decision makers would prefer to plan according to the average. This is not the case in the EM. Climate extremes (floods and drought)

3 Climate change is already effecting the Eastern Mediterranean Region were drought and floods are becoming more frequent and intense. Precipitation and annual recharge at the Mountain Aquifer has decreased slightly during the last decades. However, at the Northern basins, the Israeli Hydrological Service has detected a much more significant and sharp decrease in water recharge: Observed Hydro-Climate trends in the Eastern Mediterranean region Decrease in precipitation, increase in evaporation, dramatic decrease in spring flow, stream flow and incoming water into lake Kinneret. There is a wide agreement among the international Hydro-Climate community that those trends are due to climate change.

4 Observed Hydro-Climatic trends in Northern Israel Drought index for the Dan spring Petersen et al., 2016: DROUGHT IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL SOUTHWEST ASIA DURING WINTER 2013/14, BAMS

5 Incoming water volumes into the lake of Galilee

6 Lake of galilee levels with respect to pumping Total pumping to the national water carrier: 30 MCM Total pumping to the national water carrier: 300 MCM

7 The recent years reflect extreme droughts A century drought event U.K, January 2014 Serbia, May 2014

8 precipitation trends for the 21th in the Middle East Evans et al. 2012

9 Change in mean precipitation vs in 3 different climate models

10 Hydro- meteorological Trends: Evapotranspiration Precipitation Stream flow at the Jordan River Evapotranspiration [mm] Precipitation [mm] Stream flow - Jordan River

11 Changes in percentages at the period and with respect to Evapotranspiration [mm] Precipitation [mm] Stream flow -Jordan River [mcm]

12 Israel: National water supply and consumption

13 In a changing climate floods and droughts are the two sides of the same coin צילם: מיכאל שמידט 2013/14: 1% flood events across the country 2013/14: The most severe drought in Israel in a century

14 flood forecasting modeling Increase in Natural Disaster Events

15 Surface Water Modeling 1. Real time flood forecasting models 2. Seasonal precipitation models 3. Down scaling of climate models to evaluate the effect of climate change and land use changes on water resources and the hydrological cycle

16 Israeli Early Warning System for Floods and drought

17 The major water resources in Israel Western Galilee Carmel Kinnert Eastern Aquifer Costal Aquifer Mountain Aquifer Negev Arava

18 Using ensemble of climate models for seasonal precipitation in Israel

19 Tools for early waring system for floods Rain Converter :Management tool developed by IHS

20 Expected precipitation animation Expected flood animation 20

21 Special HIS cellular application אפליקציית for early waring from floods השיטפונות: מסך כניסה

22 The Israeli Model of Integrated Management of Natural and Manufactured Water Resources has proved itself! All the water needs for all the sectors were supplied during the most severe drought year ( ) in the modern history of the State of Israel - 24/7! Water shortages obliged Israel to face the challenges and become a world leader in water reuse, conservation and sea water desalination and integrated management of the water sector. Continuous governmental lead and support and nationwide efforts combined with innovative cost-effective methods have played a vital role in stabilizing the Israeli water sector.