Some Perspectives from EPA

Transcription

1 Some Perspectives from EPA Presented by Terry Keating, PhD U.S EPA Office of Air & Radiation AQAST 5 University of Maryland, College Park 5 June General Comments 2. Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) 3. Regulatory Modeling Issues within EPA/OAR/OAQPS 1

2 Some General Comments EPA is very appreciative of NASA/ESD Applied Science Program s investment in this flexible approach AQAST member s outreach to the air quality management community and responsiveness to our needs. EPA Working Group on Satellite (and Above-Boundary Layer) Observations for Air Quality Management Representatives of Air & Radiation (OAR), Research & Development (ORD), and Regions (6,8,9,10) Conveners: Jim Szykman (EPA/ORD) and Terry Keating (EPA/OAR) Can serve as point of contact for EPA for atmospheric science satellite community 2

3 Some General Comments Moving forward, AQAST should seek a balance of activities that: Generate policy-relevant insights What findings are robust and generalizable? Develop capacity within the air quality management community to use NASA products, through training, guidance documents, software, value-added datasets How can you make it easy for air quality analysts to perform analyses? How can we build upon on tools/methods that the air quality community already uses? (e.g. RSIG) Create awareness of AQAST-developed resources and their applications within the air quality community Prioritize national, state, and local agency audiences. 3

4 Some Questions for Discussion Europe is moving forward with the operational Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service. Formerly known as the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Atmospheric Service and developed under the MACC II project. Services include daily atmospheric composition observations, near-real time observational data, 3-day forecasts at global and regional scales, historical reanalyses. What can the U.S. community learn from this operational effort? What will be AQAST s legacy? 4

5 What is the TF HTAP? Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution An expert group established in 2004 by the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) Co-Chaired by the European Commission (Dr. Frank Dentener, Joint Research Centre) & the United States (Dr. Terry Keating, EPA/OAR) Phase 1: , culminated in first comprehensive assessment of HTAP, addressing ozone, fine particles, mercury, and persistent organic pollutants.

6 Current Work Plan Work Plan for The focus of the Task Force s work remains on characterizing regional vs. extra-regional influences on air quality and its impacts. While HTAP 2010 presented the significance of intercontinental transport with very coarse resolution, our goal now is to improve the resolution of that picture by linking analyses at the global and regional scale. Overall Objectives of Work Plan 1. Deliver Policy Relevant Information to the LRTAP Convention, Other Multi-Lateral Forums, and National Governments 2. Improve Our Scientific Understanding of Air Pollution at the Global to Hemispheric Scale 3. Build a Common Understanding by Engaging Experts Inside and Outside the LRTAP Convention

7 Work Plan Themes of Cooperative Activities Under TF HTAP 1. Emissions & Projections 2. Source/Receptor & Source Apportionment 4. Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, & Climate 6. Data Network & Analysis Tools 3. Model/Observation & Process Evaluation 5. Impact of Climate Change on Pollution Policy-Relevant Science Products & Outreach > 35 Work Packages identified, each with a volunteer leader.

8 Work Plan Some Key Elements 2008 & 2010 Global Emissions Mosaics (WP1.1) JRC is compiling a new global emissions consistent with regional modeling inventories being used in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Expecting model ready emissions information by July 1, Emissions Scenarios (WP1.2) IIASA is developing 3 benchmark scenarios with explicit air pollution controls: Current Legislation, No Further Control, Maximum Feasible Reduction Will serve as basis for discussion about available control strategies 2-Tiered Set of Regions for Analysis

9 2010 HTAP Results Parameterizations of HTAP Experiments Elucidate Past Trends Annual Regional Mean Ozone Based on 14 HTAP Models Wild, et al. ACP (2012)

10 2010 HTAP Results Parameterizations Applied to Future Scenarios Annual Regional Mean Ozone HTAP Ensemble Mean Model applied to RCP and SRES Scenarios Wild, et al. ACP (2012)

11 Work Plan Source-Receptor Analyses Nesting of Regional Analyses Within Global Analyses Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase II, covering regional domains in North America and Europe Led by Christian Hogrefe (EPA/ORD) and Stefano Galmarini (EU/JRC) Model Inter-Comparison Study Asia Phase III (MICS-Asia 3), covering nested regional domains in Asia Led by Greg Carmichael (U Iowa), Zifa Wang (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Hajime Akimoto (Asian Center for Air Pollution Research, Japan) Comparison of Source Apportionment and Sensitivity Techniques Led by Daven Henze (U Colorado) Emission Perturbation Analysis Adjoint Modeling Pollutant Tagging Artificial Tracers

12 Work Plan Model-Observation Evaluations Identified Inflow to Western North America Coordination with AQMEII Coordination with MICS-Asia Coordination with AEROCOM Coordination with CCMI Hindcast Coordination with POLMIP Global ozone and other surface concentrations Coordination with GMOS Model evaluation of POPs simulations Model evaluation using satellite observations Additional Proposed Analysis of regional budgets or import/export fluxes Comparison to vertical profiles Comparison of optical properties at specific sites Black Carbon focused evaluation Sulfate & nitrate budget and evaluation Biomass Burning Sensitivities Further analysis of local-scale sensitivity Comparison of Ozone Deposition and Stomatal Flux Coordination with EuroDelta3? Comparison to EMEP Intensives (2008-9)?

13 Work Plan Work Flow and Timeline Emissions Deliver July Scenarios Deliver July Global Base Modeling Regional Base Modeling Start July Start Sept Global Regional Perturbations Method Comparison Model-Obs Analysis Parameterization Start Oct Workshop, December before AGU, San Francisco Start Oct-Jan Start Jan 2014 Impact Assessments Impacts of Mitigation Start Oct-Jan Start Jun 2014

14 Work Plan How can AQAST participate? Conduct global (and regional) simulations for Compile observational data for that can be used to evaluate the ensemble of chemical transport models. Organize the evaluation of 2008 and 2010 emissions and base simulations to satellite observations. Incorporate methods of satellite/model comparison into EPA s Remote Sensing Information Gateway for use by EPA and States Conduct emission perturbation simulations for 2008 and 2010 to derive parameterized S/R relationships Develop estimates of the sensitivity of nonattainment to regional and extraregional sources based on observations to compare to model estimates. Link on-line tools and data sets under the fledgling GEO Air Quality Community of Practice network.

15 Perspective from EPA/OAQPS air quality modeling group Prepared by Kirk Baker and Pat Dolwick Functions of AQMG Conduct modeling for national rules (e.g., Tier-3, CSAPR) Conduct modeling to support NAAQS reviews and implementation Write guidance for SIP attainment modeling Inform others in OAQPS on emerging AQ issues OAQPS gateway to external scientific community On-going participation in AQAST AQ management contacts on several teams Stratospheric influence on surface ozone in Western U.S. Estimating climate penalty for U.S. ozone Satellite retrievals and emissions estimation Hosted 2 nd semi-annual meeting in

16 Snapshot of current challenges There is never a shortage of challenges associated with modeling air quality over the U.S. Sample issues include: Improving model performance in periods with high concentrations of PM 2.5 Improving model performance for ozone over the southeastern U.S. Developing a better understanding of the cause/contribution to high winter time ozone levels in certain parts of the western U.S. Developing a better understanding of the source-receptor relationships (regional and by sector) that lead to poor air quality. Often leads to focus on quantifying emissions better. Wanted to highlight three issues in particular to see if AQAST expertise could be (further) leveraged: Quantifying contribution of background ozone (esp. international sources) Quantifying emissions and AQ impacts of the oil and gas sector Developing better simulations for mercury transport and deposition 16

17 Background Ozone / International Transport Have made considerable progress in estimating role of background ozone via global and nested regional models AQAST analyses are key element in 2013 O 3 Integrated Science Assessment (Lin et al., 2012) and have been invaluable in plotting course of analysis for next steps in on-going NAAQS review. Next phase of the regulatory analyses on this subject will likely be focused on two specific questions: What are the benefits of reducing international ozone precursor emissions for NAAQS attainment and ozone-related mortality within the U.S.? What is the role of international transport on local ozone exceedances relative to U.S. sources? Is it possible to model with greater specificity the expected changes in Asian ozone/pm export over the next 1-2 decades? What are the international health benefits of reducing U.S. ozone precursors? Is it possible to model with greater specificity the expected changes in U.S. ozone/pm export over the next 1-2 decades and quantify its impact on global health? 17

18 Oil and Gas Sector There is increasing national concern about the AQ impacts from the high growth emissions sector of oil & gas exploration Cause of winter ozone NAAQS exceedances? Contribution to summer O 3 and PM? HAP impacts? Next phase of the regulatory analyses on this subject will likely focus on: Need accurate basin-specific emissions inventory of NOx, speciated VOC, and primary PM Basic-specific temporal characterization of these emissions Basin-specific projections to multiple future years Nighttime Detection and Characterization of Combustion Sources: Development of algorithms to make monthly and annual site specific estimates of flared gas volume and CO2 emissions 18

19 Mercury transport and deposition The Mercury and Air Toxics rule was promulgated based on recurring requirement of the Clean Air Act to evaluate hazardous air pollutant impacts from specific sectors (such as power plants in this instance). Regional scale photochemical models (like CMAQ) are used to estimate local to regional total mercury deposition from specific sources Possible next steps in regulatory process and where AQAST could help Need to continue to improve characterization of the local to regional total (wet and dry) mercury deposition from anthropogenic sources; Hg speciation is of critical importance given the different propensity for deposition in chemical form Need to continue to improve global speciated ambient mercury inflow to regional/urban scale models Need to review in-plume chemistry to better understand whether elemental mercury (slow depositing form) is oxidized quickly (to fast depositing form), or if oxidized mercury is quickly reduced to elemental mercury. 19

20 AQMG Summary AQMG greatly appreciates the AQAST process and its proven ability to inform EPA policy. We would like to be involved in as many projects as possible that relate to AQ modeling. Other EPA offices/groups likely share that sentiment for projects that are relevant to their regulatory areas. Key AQMG contacts from AQAST perspective Tyler Fox: group leader Kirk Baker/Pat Dolwick: AQAST liaisons Kirk Baker: source apportionment, fine-scale modeling, mercury Pat Dolwick: background O 3, impacts of fire on ozone Carey Jang/Susan Anenberg: background O 3 /international transport Jim Kelly: any/all PM2.5 issues Sharon Phillips: model evaluation Norm Possiel/Brian Timin: regional transport of ozone Heather Simon: any/all ozone issues 20