BRILLIANT project: Activities and expected results of the WP3 Role of nuclear energy in long-term sustainable energy supply in the Baltic region

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1 BRILLIANT project: Activities and expected results of the WP3 Role of nuclear energy in long-term sustainable energy supply in the Baltic region Leading institution: Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI), Kaunas, Lithuania Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union Dr. Arvydas Galinis WP3 leader

2 WP3: Role of nuclear energy in long-term sustainable energy supply in the Baltic region WP3 objective : Investigation of technical and economical attractiveness of electricity generation from nuclear fuel; identification of positive and negative sides of such activity; examination of power system behaviour having large nuclear units; capacity building of personnel involved into planning of power system development and operation. Approach: learning by doing 2

3 WP3: Role of nuclear energy in long-term sustainable energy supply in the Baltic region Tasks 3.1 Overview of current power systems in Baltic region 3.2 Elaboration of tools for demonstrative analysis of technical and economic attractiveness of nuclear power to be introduced into the power system 3.3 Initial analysis of the role of nuclear power in the long-term sustainable energy supply for the small power system and for regional power system 3.4 Impact of nuclear energy on national and regional security of energy supply 3.5 Training on modelling of energy system development and operation 3

4 Energy demand and it s variation Current situation Factors affecting the energy sector Availability of energy resources Fuel prices and their variation Energy sector Electricity importexport possibilities, prices Environmental situation and obligations Legal environment Modernisation options for existing technologies Technological progress and options for new technologies Energy security requirements Other factors

5 WP3.1. Overview of current power systems in Baltic region. Work to be performed and results achieved Work content: structure of existing power plants, their remaining life time, ability to participate in providing reserve capacity, modernisation or expansion options; technical and economic characteristics of existing and candidate power plants; power plants with stochastic availability, pattern of their electricity production within a year; types, availability and prices of fuels used; electricity (and heat, if applicable) demand, its seasonal, weekly and daily variation, expected growth in the future; options for electricity import and export, prices of imported and exported electricity, variation of these prices within the year; environmental characteristics of energy technologies, externalities; environmental obligations of particular country for main types of pollutants; country energy policy objectives; incentives and barriers for development of nuclear energy, etc. Outcome: Data sets characteriz ing energy sector of particular country of the region Deliverables: D3.2 Report describing activities performed in the frames of the task. Due date Month 14 5

6 NCBJ: WP3.1. Overview of current power systems in Baltic region. Responsibilities Task leader Prof. Andrzej Strupczewski Preparation of instructions and templates for data collection, Preparation of information for PL energy system, Preparation of environmental information for energy objects in order to evaluate external effects, Preparation of report for work done. 3MM LEI: Assistance of NCBJ in preparation of instructions and templates for data collection (focus on applicability of data in MESSAGE model), Preparation of information for LT energy system, Preparation of a chapter for report for work done. 3MM TARTU: Preparation of information for EE energy system, Preparation of a chapter for report for work done. 2MM UL: Preparation of information for LV energy system, Preparation of a chapter for report for work done. 2MM VAE SPB: Analysis and preparation of comprehensive information about relevant nuclear technologies for power generation, Preparation of a chapter for report for work done. 6

7 Electricity Structure of the mathematical model used for analysis of the country energy sector development Including Provisions of energy policy External impact Environmental constrains energy security Fuel District heat supply in town i Heat Heat demand in town i System of fuel supply Fuel District hear supply in town i+1 Heat Heat demand in town i+1 Electricity Fuel System of electricity supply Electricity Country electricity demand Electricity exchange with foreign countries Exchange of reserve capacity with foreign countries Taking into account energy efficiency measures 7

8 Structure of the mathematical model used for analysis of the regional energy sector development Link EE-FI MW Link LV-EE 800MW Estonian power system EE DH system LV DH system Link EE-RU Current 1000MW, 500MW since 2025 Fuel supply Latvian power system Link LV-RU 500MW Link LT-LV 1300MW LV-LT 1500MW Lithuanian power system LT DH system Link LT-BY Current LT-BY 1350MW BY-LT 1300MR, 1000MW since 2025 Link LT-SE 700MW since 2016 Link LT-RU (Ka) 680MW Link LT-PL 500MW since 2016, 1300MW since 2025 PL DH system Polish power system Link PL-SE Link PL-DE, Link PL-CZ Link PL-BY Link PL-SK Link PL-UA 8

9 Requirement of reserve capacity Installed capacity of power plants in the case of isolated system Own use of power plants Tertiary reserve Secondary reserve Primary reserve Other power plants Other power plants Final demand The biggest largest unit Losses in the network Installed capacity of power plants in the case power system has links with neighboring systems

10 WP3.2. Elaboration of tools for demonstrative analysis of technical and economic attractiveness of nuclear power to be introduced into the power system. Work to be performed and results achieved Work content: elaboration of country energy models for each Baltic country and Poland; elaboration of regional energy model; testing and calibration of developed models; preparation of tools for result analysis; Outcome: Tools for analysis of energy system operation and development Deliverables: D3.4 Report describing activities performed in the frames of the task. Due date Month 26 10

11 LEI: WP3.2. Elaboration of tools for demonstrative analysis of technical and economic attractiveness of nuclear power to be introduced into the power system. Responsibilities Task leader Dr. Egidijus Norvaiša Elaboration of country energy models, Elaboration of regional energy model, Testing and calibration of developed energy models, Elaboration of tools for result analysis, Consultation of partners in elaboration of country energy models, Preparation of report about LT and regional energy model, tools for analysis of results. 6MM NCBJ: Elaboration of energy model for PL energy system, Testing and calibration of developed PL energy model, Preparation of a chapter of report about PL energy model. TARTU: Elaboration of energy model for EE energy system, Testing and calibration of developed EE energy model, Preparation of a chapter of report about EE energy model. UL: Elaboration of energy model for LV energy system, Testing and calibration of developed LV energy model, Preparation of a chapter of report about LV energy model. 11

12 WP3.3. Initial analysis of the role of nuclear power in the long-term sustainable energy supply for the small power system and for regional power system. Work to be performed and results achieved Work content: elaboration of scenarios to be analysed; exercise on analysis of energy sector scenarios structure of generating capacities, energy balances, energy trade, need of reserve capacities, their location, investments, operation costs, impact to environment; role of nuclear energy, external effects. Outcome: Main factors influencing attractiveness of nuclear power, Obstacles for its introduction, Areas of the main attention Deliverables: D3.5 Report describing activities performed in the frames of the task. Due date Month 36 12

13 LEI: WP3.3. Initial analysis of the role of nuclear power in the long-term sustainable energy supply for the small power system and for regional power system. Responsibilities Task leader Dr. Dalius Tarvydas Elaboration of scenarios to be analysed, Assistance of partners in analysis of energy sector development scenarios, Exercise on analysis of energy sector development scenarios for LT and on regional scale, Preparation of report about results of the energy sector development in LT and the region. 6MM NCBJ: Exercise on analysis of energy sector development scenarios for PL, Preparation of a chapter of report about development of PL energy sector. TARTU: Exercise on analysis of energy sector development scenarios for EE, Preparation of a chapter of report about development of EE energy sector UL: Exercise on analysis of energy sector development scenarios for LV, Preparation of a chapter of report about development of LV energy sector. 13

14 WP3.4. Impact of nuclear energy on national and regional security of energy supply. Work to be performed and results achieved Work content: identification of factors having impact to energy security; elaboration of tools for energy security analysis; performance of energy security analysis for investigated scenarios; Outcome: Impact of nuclear energy on national and regional security of energy supply Deliverables: D3.6 Report describing activities performed in the frames of the task Due date Month 36 14

15 LEI: WP3.4. Impact of nuclear energy on national and regional security of energy supply. Responsibilities Task leader Dr. Ričardas Krikštolaitis Elaboration of tools for security analysis, Preparation of guidance materials for project partners in providing country specific information on energy security, Identification of factors having impact to energy security, Performance of energy security analysis on country and regional level, Preparation of the report about results of energy security on country and regional level. 6MM NCBJ: Analysis of situation in PL and providing country specific information for analysis of energy security, Evaluation of main energy security finding in PL. TARTU: Analysis of situation in EE and providing country specific information for analysis of energy security, Evaluation of main energy security finding in EE. UL: Analysis of situation in LV and providing country specific information for analysis of energy security, Evaluation of main energy security finding in LV. 15

16 WP3.5. Training on modelling of energy system development and operation. Work to be performed and results achieved Work content: solving of organisational matters on obtaining training materials to provide basic knowledge on energy system modelling; identification of needs for training on detailed modelling of the energy system; preparation of training materials for training on detailed modelling of the energy system; organisational matters and training delivery on detailed modelling of the energy system; Outcome: Increased capacity of experts in countries of the region in the field of modelling and analysis of energy systems operation and development Deliverables: D3.1 Training 1 Due date Month 6 D3.3 Training 2 D3.7 Report Due date Month 14 16

17 WP3.5. Training on modelling of energy system development and operation. Responsibilities KTH: Task leader Prof. Mark Howells ( Mark.Howells@energy.kth.se). Elaboration of the training program, Preparation and delivery of lectures about general features of OSeMOSYS. LEI: Preparation and delivery of lectures and practical tasks on modelling of specific issues in MESSAGE, Communication with IAEA in obtaining right to use e-training and inviting IAEA expert. Organisational matters of the training. 4.5MM NCBJ: Active participation in training events 0.5MM UL: Active participation in training events 0.5MM TARTU: Active participation in training events FTMC: Active participation in training events 0.5MM 0.25MM 17

18 D3.7 D3.3 D3.1 D3.6 MS23 D3.5 MS27 D3.4 MS22 MS18 MS9 D3.2 MS4 MS Task description 3.1 Overview of current power systems in Baltic region MS1. Instructions for data collection, analysis and conversion into necessary format, instructions for analysis of reservation options inside each power system and through power lines from neighbouring countries MS4. Preparation of the main set of information about current status of power systems in Baltic countries and Poland D3.2. Task 3.1 final report 3.2 Elaboration of tools for demonstrative analysis of technical and economic attractiveness of nuclear power to be introduced into the power system MS9. Elaboration of updated energy system model, collection of additional information, test runs of single country models Milestones and deliverables Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Responsible/ Contributing institutions NCBJ/LEI, TARTU, UL NCBJ/LEI NCBJ/LEI, TARTU, UL NCBJ/LEI, TARTU, UL LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL MS18. Calibration of single country energy models, linking of single country models into one multiregional model and calibration of the multiregional model LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL MS22. Elaboration of tools for preparation of results LEI D3.4. Task 3.2 final report 3.3 Initial analysis of the role of nuclear power in the long-term sustainable energy supply for the small power system and for regional power system MS27. Analysis of power system development and operation LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL D3.5. Task 3.3 final report 3.4 Impact of nuclear energy on national and regional security of energy supply MS23. Elaboration of mathematical model for assessment of security of energy supply in Baltic Sea region D3.6. Task 3.4 final report LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL LEI/NCBJ, TARTU. UL 3.5 Training on modelling of energy system development and operation KTH/LEI, NCBJ, TARTU, UL, FTMC D3.1. Training 1 to provide basic knowledge on energy system modelling D3.3. Training 2 on detailed modelling of the energy system LEI KTH/LEI 21 D3.7. Task 3.5 final report KTH

19 Links with other WP and desirable future steps Soft and hard links possible in future WP1 Development of roadmap identifying areas of Baltic region cooperation in nuclear research and technology fields WP2 Reactor types, type and amount of SNF and NW WP3 Detailed analysis of energy sector operation and development Analysis of grid expansion and its stability in the future WP4 Energy demand, energy prices, consumption from different energy branches 22

20 Thank you for your attention 23