Abel Mejia. World Water Week 2009, Stockholm Seminar on Financing Adaptation

Transcription

1 Abel Mejia World Bank World Water Week 2009, Stockholm Seminar on Financing Adaptation Structure of the presentation 1) How big is the challenge? 2) How much (additional) funding is available? 3) What is the World ldbank doing?

2 Estimates of GlobalInfrastructure Cost for Adaptation are in the 10 to 70 billion USD per year range World Bank (2006): $9 41 billion per year Adaptation Costs = Baseline x % Exposed to x % Increase in costs to Investments Climate Risk climate proof Stern (2006): $4 37billion / yr UNDP (2007): $5 67 billion / yr by 2015 UNDP (2007): billion / yr by 2015 includes social ilprotection ti + disaster response Oxfam (2007): NGO adaptation projects at least $50 billion / yr UNFCCC (2007): First sector based estimates $28 69 billion / yr by 2030 of which 8 billion is for water supply in developing countries Sectorbased cost of adaptation estimate prepared p for UNFCCC Sector Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Global Need (billion USD) Share of developing countries 14 50% Water supply 11 80% Human health 5 100% Coastal zone 11 40% Other infrastructure % Source: Stratus Consulting presentation to Dialogue on Long Term Cooperative Action, Vienna August 28, 2007

3 But when specified in NAPAs the adaptation costs look very small (current estimates from NAPAs) USD million Bangladesh Mozambique Ethiopia Samoa Total Coastal Zones 23 2 NA NA 166 Disaster NA Preparedness Health NA NA Infrastructure 2 NA Ecosystems NA NA Tourism NA NA NA Water Resources Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries NA Definition of Adaptation is a major challenge to have measures identified and financed Estimates for 40 out of 49 LDCs Stakeholder consultations Urgent, shortterm adaptation prioritiesriti Total costs, not annual costs Limited sectoral economic analyses Fund GEF FCPF Adaptation Fund EU GCCA Global Environment Facility Vehicles for Climate Finance 10 implementing agencies: UNDP, UNEP, WB, FAO, IADB, UNIDO, ADB, AfDB, EBRD and IFAD Grants for projects related to six focal areas: biodiversity, climate change, international waters, land degradation, the ozone layer, and persistent organic pollutants Forest Carbon Part of World Bank Carbon Finance Mechanism. Two mechanisms: 1) Technical assistance 4 Partnership REDD reference scenario and strategy 2) Purchases certified emission reductions from selected Facility countries Adaptation Fund created td under UNFCCC EU Global Climate Change Alliance World Bank is trustee. GEF provides Secretariat. Adaptation fund is funded by a tax of 2% of certified emission i reductions (CERs) on investors proceeds from CDMs. Adaptation ti Fund monetizes CERs and spends the proceeds on climate change adaptation projects. Sales in May and June approx. 12 million USD The Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) aims at supporting the poorest and most vulnerable countries with respect to their capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change. It will provide a platform for dialogue and financial and technical support for adaptation measures and the integration of climate change into development strategies. (Committed: 250 million EUR for plus funds for CC under European Development Fund) GFDRR Global Facility for The GFDRR is managed by the World Bank on behalf of the participating donor partners and Disaster Reduction and Recovery other partnering stakeholders. The GFDRR provides technical and financial assistance to high risk low and middle income countries to mainstream disaster reduction in national development strategies and plans to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Donors pledged 82 million USD over 4 years ( ). Contribution so far 79 million USD. WBG RR&EE program Seems to be several under the Climate Investment Funds, notably the Scaling up Renewable Energy in Low Income Countries and the Energy Efficiency component under the Clean Technology Fund. The volume of 3.4 billion may reflect WBG lending to renewable energy and energy efficiency

4 Vehicles for climate change finance: Large Commitments, but so far small amounts mobilized for adaptation Mitigation (Total Needs est. $220bn+ / year) GEF $ 0.25 bn Adaptation funding FCPF $0.2 bn REDD (Total Needs est. $30bn / year) Funds ~$1.2 Bi Carbon Market: GEF CDM&JI $ 0.25 bn WBG RE & ~ $ 8 bn for FY09 EE Progam for FY09 (IBRD/IDA/ IFC/MIGA) $3.4 bn for FY09 Resources to address Climate Change Both M&A Climate Investment Funds (MDBs) $6.1 bn Adaptation Fund $ bn Oh Other MDBs UNDP $3 bn $ bn for FY09 for adaptation Private EU Bilateral Donors Global Climate GFDRR Adaptation Change Alliance Donors $? $ 0.07 bn 0. 3 bn $? FY09 estimates are projections Source: World Bank (2009) Climate Investment Funds ~6 billion committed Clean Technology Fund Finance scaled-up demonstration, deployment and transfer of low carbon technologies Strategic Climate Fund Targeted programs with dedicated funding to pilot new approaches with potential for scaling up Country Investment Plans Support countries development strategies Leverage financial products of International Financial Institutions Stimulate private sector engagement Pilot Program for Climate Resilience Mainstream climate resilience into core development planning Forest Investment Program Reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation Scaling Up Renewable Energy in Low Income Countries Begin transformational change by use of renewable energy under design just approved ±$5 billion ±$1 billion

5 Contribute to strengthening the knowledge base WDR 2010 on Development and Climate Change (climatesmart development policies) Economics of Adaptation (global adaptation costs with case studies in seven countries) Sector & Region specific studies: Agriculture, Water; Transport, Forests, Biodiversity, Social Low Carbon High Growth report in LCR, Adaptation study in ECA; Economics of CC series in Africa, etc. Low-carbon growth country studies: Brazil; China, India, Indonesia; Mexico, Poland, South Africa State and Trends of the Carbon Market Contribute new tools and delivery mechanisms Climate Change for Development Professionals (CCDP) learning program Global Expert Team (GET) on Climate Change Adaptation Guidance Notes on climate proofing and adaptation Greening Infrastructure guidance note (to support INFRA Platform) Guidance on the use and leverage of various climate finance instruments ESMAP Energy Efficiency initiative Climate Change Data Portal New Climate Change website WB pilot of new web governance GHG Accounting (Energy, Transport, Forests, real sector at IFC) Global City Indicators Program Tracking of CC-related investments in WBG portfolio

6 Different types yp of p projects j are exposed p to climate change in different ways Climate change model (22 GCMs) Alternative Scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) Projections of 5 hydrologic indicators H d l i indicator Hydrologic i di t W t system Water t affected ff t d Change in annual net irrigation deficit Irrigation and drainage Change g in run off reliabilityy (drought) ( g ) Urban water supply pp y & sanitation Change in minimum base flow Rural water supply and sanitation Change in run off reliability (flood) Flood control Change in basin yields River basin management and multi purpose infrastructure E Exposure in i year 2030 middle iddl GCM, GCM scenario i A1B Irrigation and Drainage Systems Change in net irrigation deficit Flood control Change in run off reliability (flood) Rural Water Supply & Sanitation Change in minimum base flow Urban Water Supply & Sanitation Change in run off reliability (drought)

7 Indicators have been evaluated for 7,000 basins in the Bank s regions, for all GCMs and for three scenarios This will allow Bank Staff to bring fairly detailed climate data to bear on their project preparation the aim is eventually to make this material publicly available Evaluation of consequences for Bank portfolio tments of water invest % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2030 AFR MNA LCR ECA EAP SAR Bankwide A significant share of the World Bank s Water Portfolio is at risk from exposure to climate change A screening tool is being developed to identify at risk projects at design stage % of water inves stments 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2050 AFR MNA LCR ECA EAP SAR Bankwide Low Med High

8 Next steps Make the large database available Initially to Bank Staff later publicly Integrate this type of information in planning at river basin or national / regional level A pilot on best practice has been initiated Integrate this type of information in project design A methodology has been prepared p that may be used for multi purpose infrastructure Evaluate robustness of treaties and institutional arrangements for transboundary basins Work is underway Develop a screening tool for at risk projects Initially for hd hydropower later for other at risk sectors Reprogramming Water Supply Project in Quito Glacier reduction Drying D i moorlands and high lagoons Change in flow pattern 35% reduction on base flow from glaciers Population Growth Advance Rios Orientales project (Antisana)

9 Take away messages 1) How big is the challenge? 2) How much (additional) funding is available? 3) What is the World Bank doing? Large in absolute amounts Should be manageable when compared to total flows key challenge seems to be identification of good projects Large pledges Additionality is a difficult issue So far limited money paid in Strengthening the knowledge base New tools and delivery mechanisms Climate Change as part of assistance strategies Climate adaptation in projects