Waste opportunties: Past and Future Climate Benefits from Better Municipal Waste Management in Europe

Transcription

1 Waste opportunties: Past and Future Climate Benefits from Better Municipal Waste Management in Europe 2011 GMI Partnership-Wide Meeting 13 Oct 2011 Ioannis Bakas European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 1

2 Contents Objectives Project structure Waste projections Waste management GHG emissions Future scenarios Main messages European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 2

3 Objective 3 main questions Are waste volumes decreasing? Is waste management improving? Is there GHG mitigation potential from better waste management? Investigation of MSW European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 3

4 Response Projections of MSW volumes Projections of MSW management Modelling of GHG emissions but Use of Life Cycle Thinking European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 4

5 Objectives Project structure Waste projections Waste management GHG emissions Future scenarios Main messages European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 5

6 Structure Eurostat data on MSW generation Forecast based on econometric parameters Are waste volumes decreasing? Eurostat data on MSW management Forecast based on legislation incentives and expert judgement Is waste management improving? Waste composition Emission factors Is there GHG mitigation potential from better waste management? European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 6

7 Objectives Project structure Waste projections Waste management GHG emissions Future scenarios Main messages European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 7

8 Projections of municipal waste Key explanatory variables: Private final consumption No of households/population Projection of explanatory variables based on scenario for the European Commission EU-27* European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 8

9 Projections of municipal waste EU in 2020: Around 280 million tonnes 558 kg/cap 6.9 % growth Differences among MS European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 9

10 Objectives Project structure Waste projections Waste management GHG emissions Future scenarios Main messages European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 10

11 Municipal waste management In 2020: Landfilling 28 % - Recycling 49 % European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 11

12 MSW management projection assumptions Existing data in Eurostat (9) Backcasting based on expert judgement Incentives from legislation Forecasting Expert judgement Historical data European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 12

13 Objectives Project structure Waste projections Waste management GHG emissions Future scenarios Main messages European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 13

14 Estimating GHG emissions Direct emissions Landfill: IPCC Incineration: IPCC, carbon mass balance Recycling: LCA data Indirect emissions All options: LCA data European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 14

15 Modelling GHG emissions from landfills First order decay method IPCC recommended 0,008 1 kg municipal waste CH4 emissions (kgch4/kg waste/yr) 0,007 0,006 0,005 0,004 0,003 0,002 0,001 food garden paper wood years from landfilling European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 15

16 Projection of methane emissions Gg methane/yr 16,00 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 Methane emission contributions using FOD, food waste European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP)

17 Methane capture Most critical parameter for landfill emissions Countries report in UNFCCC Controversy over maximum value Hard to measure Our model < 50 % European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 17

18 Net GHG emissions results (I) European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 18

19 Net GHG emissions results (II) European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 19

20 Influencing factors for GHG estimation 1. MSW composition from 6 countries 2. Methane recovery cap (50 %) 3. Average energy mix per country 4. Emission factors (LCA data) European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 20

21 Objectives Project structure Waste projections Waste management GHG emissions Future scenarios Main messages European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 21

22 Scenarios 1. Business-as-usual 2. Landfill Directive full compliance 3. Implementation of Landfill Ban across all countries European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 22

23 Scenario results European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 23

24 Objectives Project structure Waste projections Waste management GHG emissions Future scenarios Main messages European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 24

25 Main messages (I) No decoupling of MSW generation from GDP growth MSW management expected to improve: Recycling Landfilling EU legislation to stimulate management improvement EU legislation has side-effects European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 25

26 Main messages (II) 48 mio tonnes CO 2 -eq reduction between 1995 and 2008 Main factors: 1. Reduced methane emissions 2. Increased avoided emissions through recycling Significant contribution of MSW management to EU GHG targets Landfill Directive fulfillment: 62 mio tonnes reduction between 2008 and 2020: 42 % more than BAU scenario Landfill Ban: 78 mio tonnes reduction between 2008 and 2020: 76 % more than BAU scenario European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 26

27 Publications EEA at ETC Working Paper at European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 27

28 Thank you for your attention For more information please visit our website: European Topic Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (ETC/SCP) 28