HGS-M A Tool to Conjunctively and Dynamically Simulate Hydrologic Processes and Multi-reservoir Systems for

Transcription

1 HGS-M A Tool to Conjunctively and Dynamically Simulate Hydrologic Processes and Multi-reservoir Systems for Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts Mary Kang 1, Varut Guvanasen 1, Kirk Nelson 2, George Matanga 2 1 HydroGeoLogic, Inc. 2 U.S. Bureau of Reclamation May 6, 2009

2 Acknowledgement U.S. Bureau of Reclamation University of Waterloo Laval University HydroGeoLogic, Inc. 2

3 Potential Impacts of Climate Change Changes in Air Temperature Changes in Precipitation and Runoff Sea Level Rise Changes in Water Demand Ecosystem Impacts Effect on Water Resources Management? Role of Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Water Resources Management? 3

4 Modeling and Water Resources Management Need capability to assess issues in an integrated and optimal manner under various water management scenarios AND under changing climatic conditions Need a tool that facilitates conjunctive and dynamic simulation of hydrologic processes and operation of multi-reservoir i systems 4

5 Central Valley of California Major Watersheds Sacramento River Basin San Joaquin River Basin Tulare Basin Water Resources Management System Central Valley Project (CVP) State Water Project (SWP) 5

6 HydroGeoSphere (HGS) T T T T T 6 Collaboratively developed by the University of Waterloo, Université Laval, Reclamation, and HydroGeoLogic Comprehensive fully Comprehensive, fullyintegrated, physically-based, and distributed numerical model A Accounts t for f 3-D 3 D variably i bl saturated subsurface flow and 2-D overland / stream flow Includes numerous techniques for improved computational efficiency Integrated with geospatial tools for modeling and visualization

7 Existing HydroGeoSphere Models in California i Sacramento Valley Model San Joaquin Valley Model Red Rock Ranch Water Storage Analysis 7

8 WRIMS (Calsim) Generalized water allocation model Joint developers: California Department of Water Resources U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Single time-step optimization technique objectives: user-specified series of objectives with relative priorities for water allocation and storage constraints: physical capacities, hydrological condition, and specific regulatory criteria 8

9 WRIMS (Calsim) Applications CVP/SWP System Calsim-II Calsim-III (to be released) Need for continued development Planning i Climate Change 9

10 Linking HydroGeoSphere and WRIMS (Calsim) Integrated representation of hydrologic / multi- reservoir system processes WRIMS (Calsim) HydroGeoSphere 10

11 General Design Considerations Maintain i an open architecture t to facilitate future additions and upgrades Linkage to various water-allocation models/programs Linkage to various optimization models/programs Adaptability to future versions and new features in HydroGeoSphere, WRIMS, and various water-allocation/optimization software Takes advantage of latest advances in computing resources 11

12 Review of Water Allocation Models and Linkage Methodologies Existing Water Allocation Models Problem Formulation Optimization Methods Methodology to Link Simulation and Optimization (S/O) Models Considerations Geospatial and Temporal Representation Communication Approaches Feedback Methodologies Direct Surrogate Models 12

13 Selected Linked S/O Models Optimization Model WRIMS (CalSim-III) Distributed Simulation Model Communication Feedback IWFM (groundwater module only) Dynamic MODSIM MODFLOW (MODRSP) Static n/a WEAP MODFLOW Dynamic n/a RiverWare MODFLOW (incl. the RIP-ET package) Dynamic n/a MODMAN MODFLOW Static n/a MF2K-GWM (MODOFC) SOMOS n/a MODFLOW Static ti / Dynamic n/a MODFLOW; MT3DMS; SWIFT; SEAWAT; ARMOS Static Yes (Cycling) 13

14 Highlights from Review of Linkage Methodologies Linked simulation models generally represent groundwater only Communication Dynamic communication is key in representing nonstationary processes Feedback needed because of discrepancies between S/O models resulting from: Differences in process representation in the two linked models 14

15 Highlights from Review of Linkage Methodologies Geospatial and Temporal Representation Simulation models are typically discretized at finer scales than optimization models Need to investigate appropriate upscaling/downscaling strategies t 15

16 System Representation Options Network-based Geospatial Trinity Lake Shasta Lake Lewiston Lake Whiskeytown Lake Keswick Reservoir Clear Creek Decision Point Communication Point CalSim-II configuration Geographical mapping 16

17 Conclusions from the Review Room for development of a new tool that Conjunctively simulates multi-reservoir systems and surface and subsurface flow / transport / thermal processes in a fully integrated manner With dynamic communication and feedback Especially yg given climate change impacts Need for collaboration and discussion to best formulate and develop the linkage 17

18 Linkage Methodology: HGS-M General Schematic HGS-MI t = 0 HGSvM HGSvM HGSvM t + Δt HGSCompile WRIMS-H Time loop 18

19 Questions??? Mary Kang HydroGeoLogic, Inc. 19