CCSP Product 2.1A: An Application of Integrated Assessment Modeling. Leon Clarke Joint Global Change Research Institute

Transcription

1 CCSP Product 2.1A: An Application of Integrated Assessment Modeling Leon Clarke Joint Global Change Research Institute

2 Integrated Assessment Modeling 2

3 Integrated Assessment: A Comprehensive Paradigm Atmospheric Chemistry Links may be formal or informal depending on the application Atmosphere - Ocean System Climate Oceans, Carbon Cycle, Sea Level, Temperature IA models are comprehensive. IA models are used to inform climate decision-making. IA models have their roots in energyeconomic modeling. Human Systems Ecosystems Energy System Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Unmanaged Ecosystems & Animals Other Human Systems Anthropogenic Coastal Zone Managed Ecosystems Hydrology 3

4 Integrated Assessment Modeling: IA Research and IA Models at JGCRI Atmosphere - Ocean System Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Oceans, Carbon Cycle, Sea Level, Temperature MAGICC/ Scengen Human Systems Energy System Other Human Systems Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry Anthropogenic Coastal Zone MiniCAM Energy /Economic SGM Energy/ Economic AGLU HUMUS EPIC BIOME3 Ecosystems Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Managed Ecosystems Unmanaged Ecosystems & Animals Hydrology 4

5 14 MiniCAM Regions 5

6 Schematic of MiniCAM Primary Production Coal Oil Gas Biomass Energy Supply Secondary Fuels Solids, Liquids Gases Electricity Hydrogen Energy Prices Total Energy Demand (Economic activity, population, efficiency, prices) Energy Demand Demand for specific forms (Service preferences, prices) The The final final equilibrium equilibrium is is based based on on equating equating supplies supplies and and demands. demands. Biomass Production Land Prices (food& fiber demands) & Biomass Price Biomass Price Ag Land-Use Land-Use & Production Crops Animals Biomass Wood Emissions GHG Emissions Carbon Dioxide Sulfur Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Others. MAGIC Temp Change SLR SCENGEN Climate Change Patterns Climate Climate and and carbon carbon cycle cycle inform inform the the paths/approaches paths/approaches to to stabilization. stabilization. 6

7 $/tonne C ($) $2, $1, MINICAM_Level1 $1, MINICAM_Level2 MINICAM_Level3 $1, MINICAM_Level4 $1, $1, $ $ $ $ $ The value of carbon Cumulative Global Compliance Cost (Trillion U.S. $, 5% Discount Rate) $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Cumulative Carbon Emissions and Cumulative Compliance Cost across Scenarios Reference Technology Advanced Technology All Advances Cumulative Emissions 45 ppmv 55 ppmv 65 ppmv 75 ppmv The value of technology 1, 1, 1, Cumulative Carbon Emissions (GTC) Net Terrestrial Em issions GtC/yr MINICAM_Level1 MINICAM_Level2 MINICAM_Level3 MINICAM_Level4 MINICAM_REF Emissions Pathways 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal Energy systems Natural Gas Oil GTC/Year MINICAM_Lev el1 MINICAM_Lev el2 MINICAM_Lev el3 MINICAM_Lev el4 MINICAM_REF Year Feedbacks/Dynamics

8 The CCSP Scenarios 8

9 The CCSP Strategic Plan called for 21 synthesis and assessment products Product 2.1: Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with the CCTP. Review of integrated scenario development and application. 9

10 Three modeling teams Study Design MIT (IGSM) Henry Jacoby, John Reilly PNNL (MiniCAM) Jae Edmonds, Hugh Pitcher EPRI (MERGE) Rich Richels Coordinator Leon Clarke From each team: One reference scenario Four stabilization scenarios Explore the emissions, energy, and economic implications of stabilization 1

11 Study Design Stabilize greenhouse gases, not just CO 2 Stabilize total radiative forcing from CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4, HFCs, PFCs, and SF 6 Other radiatively-important substances (e.g., aerosols) not included Long-term (many century) stabilization; study period through 21. Four stabilization scenarios roughly consistent with 45 ppmv through 75 ppmv CO 2, along with one reference scenario. Total Radiative Forcing from GHGs (Wm -2 ) Approximate Contribution to Radiative Forcing from non-co 2 GHGs (Wm -2 ) Approximate Contribution to Radiative Forcing from CO 2 (Wm -2 ) Corresponding CO 2 Concentration (ppmv) Level Level Level Level Year

12 CCSP Product 2.1A stopped at radiative forcing Uncertainty in climate sensitivity has important ramifications for carbon emission pathways to stabilization. From Edmonds, J. and S. Smith (6), The technology of two degrees, Chapter 41 in Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Shellnhuber, H., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T., and Yohe, G., eds., Cambridge University Press. 12

13 Study Design All modeling groups assume existing climate programs (Kyoto, U.S. intensity target) but then assume perfect where, when, and what flexibility going forward. Assumptions (e.g., population, economic growth, technological change) developed individually by the modeling groups. No likelihoods assigned to any scenarios or parameters. Teams directed to develop assumptions they consider plausible and meaningful. These are not the only sets of assumptions that these three modeling teams could have developed. 13

14 THIS IS NOT A COST- BENEFIT ANALYSIS 14

15 The Reference Scenarios 15

16 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal Natural Gas Oil 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal Natural Gas Oil MiniCAM IGSM , 1, 1, 1, Coal Natural Gas Oil MERGE Primary energy grows to between three and four times today s levels by the end of the century. All models envision penetration of fossil alternatives for conventional oil Substantial growth in sources that don t emit carbon But fossil fuels remain the dominant energy source. 16

17 Continually increasing CO 2 emissions over the coming century with important transitions in emitting countries. 17

18 Radiative forcing trajectories are not consistent with stabilization at any of the four levels considered in the exercise CO 2 takes on an increasingly large share of radiative forcing in all three scenarios Contributions of non-co 2 GHGs vary among the models 18

19 Stabilization Scenarios 19

20 Fossil and Other Industrial Emissions ultimately decline toward the rate at which emissions are balanced by removal processes. Stabilization at 45 ppmv is has fundamentally different implications than stabilization at 55 ppmv and above. Emissions pathways are not identical across models. 2

21 CO 2 emissions mitigation during 5 to 25 is just the start Emissions Mitigation 5 to 25 and 25 to 295 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 5 to to ppm 65 ppm 55 ppm 45 ppm From Edmonds, J., Wise, M., Dooley, J., Kim, S., Smith, S., Runci, P., Clarke, L., Malone, E., and Stokes, G., 7, Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public- Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute. The time scale of emissions mitigation is a century or more. Energy technology will be needed to help control emissions in the NEAR-, MID-, and Long-term to address climate change. 21

22 CO 2 emissions pathways vary across models : Radiative Forcing in 21 Differing contributions from non-co 2 greenhouse gases 22

23 CO 2 emissions pathways vary across models Relationship between cumulative emissions and concentrations 23

24 NET TERRESTRIAL EMISSIONS 24

25 OCEAN UPTAKE 25

26 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS IGSM 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MiniCAM , 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Reference) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 26

27 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS IGSM 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MiniCAM , 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Level 4, 75 ppmv) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 27

28 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS IGSM 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MiniCAM , 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Level 3, 65 ppmv) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 28

29 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS IGSM 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MiniCAM , 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Level 2, 55 ppmv) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 29

30 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS IGSM 1, 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MiniCAM , 1, 1, 1, Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Level 1, 45 ppmv) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 3

31 1 CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil 1 CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil IGSM - - MiniCAM CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Level 4, 75 ppmv) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 31

32 1 CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil 1 CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil IGSM - - MiniCAM CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Level 3, 65 ppmv) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 32

33 1 CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil 1 CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil IGSM - - MiniCAM CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Level 2, 55 ppmv) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 33

34 1 CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil 1 CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil IGSM - - MiniCAM CCS Coal Natural Gas Oil MERGE PRIMARY ENERGY (Level 1, 45 ppmv) Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy system The models present very different approaches to this evolution All of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix 34

35 The Challenge of Scale near term CO 2 Storage 55 ppm Stabilization Case 8 7 Millions of Tons of Carbon per Year Monitored CO2 Storage Today 22 (55 ppm) From Edmonds, J., Wise, M., Dooley, J., Kim, S., Smith, S., Runci, P., Clarke, L., Malone, E., and Stokes, G., 7, Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute. 35

36 In the long-term the challenge grows , CO 2 Storage Rate Level 2 (~55 ppm) TgC/y Monitored CO2 Storage 22 (55 ppm) 6, 5, TgC/y 4, 3, 2, 1, Monitored CO2 Storage 22 (55 ppm) 25 (55 ppm) 295 (55 ppm) From Edmonds, J., Wise, M., Dooley, J., Kim, S., Smith, S., Runci, P., Clarke, L., Malone, E., and Stokes, G., 7, Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute. 36

37 Carbon Prices rise until stabilization is reached. Expectations about the future (e.g., technology) influence carbon prices today THESE SCENARIOS ASSUME PERFECT WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT FLEXIBILITY NOTE: All carbon prices are in $/tonne C Prices in $/tonne CO 2 would be 3/11 as large 37

38 The Effects on GDP have similar characteristics to the carbon price Economic impacts would be higher without perfect where and when flexibility 38

39 Variation in Economic Implications 1. Required Emissions Reductions Cumulative Emissions Reduction, 21 (GtC) 2. Assumptions about future technology 39

40 Sources of Differences in Emissions Mitigation Reference case emissions Wm CH4 Long-Lived F-gases CO2 Forcing in 21, Level 2 (4.7 W/m 2 ) N2O Short-Lived F-gases Carbon cycle Non-CO 2 GHG s GtC/yr IGSM MERGE MiniCAM IGSM_REF MERGE_REF MINICAM_REF 5 Reference CO 2 Emissions

41 The Role of Post-25 Technology While While the the technology stories stories for for the the three three modeling teams teams are are similar similar through 25, 25, they they are are different in in the the far far future. future. 41

42 Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS IGSM Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MiniCAM Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS MERGE All of the models have ample opportunities for decarbonizing electricity. The ability to switch to low- or zero-carbon fuels in end use sectors plays an important role in cost differences

43 End 43