Climate Stabilization Scenarios New Integrated Assessment Approaches (for IPCC AR5)

Transcription

1 Climate Stabilization Scenarios New Integrated Assessment Approaches (for IPCC AR5) Nebojša Nakićenović Technische Universität Wien xx International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx 10th IAEE European Conference, Hofburg, Vienna 10 September 2009

2 Scenarios: Provide a framework for decision making which illuminates the impact associated with alternative courses of action Facilitate the interpretation of possible future states Include elements that cannot be formally modeled Aimed at challenging prevailing mind sets Nakicenovic #2 2009

3 Years Before Present New Worlds: Grand Transformations Years Before Present 10 9 Industrial 5000 B.C. A.D A.D Industrial Agricultural Tool Making Source: R. Kates (1997) after E. Deevey (1960) Years Before Present Nakicenovic Source: Kates & Deevey #

4 Global Change Challenges Sustainable energy and food services (a prerequisite for reaching MDGs) Security and reliability of systems Deep CO 2 and GHG reductions Investment in R&D and deployment Climate, Economy, Investment Crises Nakicenovic #4 2009

5 Urbanization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nakicenovic Source: Grübler, 2007 #5 2009

6 Education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nakicenovic Source: Lutz, 2007 #6 2009

7 Democratization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nakicenovic Source: Modelski, 2002 #7 2009

8 Source: Paul Raskin, 2002 Dimensions of Transformtion Governance Technology Economic Social Demographic Values Knowledge

9 GDP Growth Rates and Affluence Annual growth rate of GDP, percent A1 China B1 DCs B2 India A2 Case A Case B China, Taiwan REFs Japan Germany Italy Case A OECD Case C GDP per capita, US(1990)$ Nakicenovic #9 2009

10 GDP Growth Rates and Affluence Annual growth rate of GDP, percent A1 China B1 DCs B2 India A2 Case A Case B China, Taiwan REFs Japan Germany Italy Case A OECD Case C GDP per capita, US(1990)$ Nakicenovic #

11 Global Primary Energy A2r EJ Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Nakicenovic #

12 Global Primary Energy B1 EJ Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Nakicenovic #

13 Surface Temperature Change AOGCM projections for illustrative SRES scenarios INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

14 Reasons for Concern Red Amber 2 o C INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Source: Smith IPCC TAR, et al PNAS, 2009

15 Long-Term Stabilization Profiles A2 B1 ~$100/tCO 2

16 Cumulative Emissions and Exceedance of 2 o C Source: Meinshausen et al., 2009

17 Implications for Cumulative Emissions The carbon budget for staying below 2 C with likely (25%) chances is tight. Too tight to have much flexibility on peaking years. The carbon budget: 1000 GtCO 2 between 2000 and 2050 for total CO 2. Or 1500 GtCO 2 -eq for Kyoto-GHGs. More than 50% reductions needed by 2050 relative to Nakicenovic #

18 Initial Scenarios 4 RCPs few stabilization targets (3) All modeling groups Sensitivity Scenarios with specific research focus Selected group of models for each topic Baseline Uncertainty Interim-targets and Overshoot Limited regional participation Technology (e.g., limited portfolio)??... Climate and ESS Models Baseline and stabilization climate projections Carbon fluxes and other feedbacks Source: After Keywan Riahi, 2006

19 Intended uses Input to CMs Intended uses and limits To facilitate pattern scaling To explore ranges of socioeconomic conditions To explore climate implications of spatial forcing patterns Limits Not forecasts or absolute bounds Not policy prescriptive Socioeconomics underlying each RCP are not unique; and, across RCPs, are not a set 19

20 Central IAM Data Repository IAM working environment & data dissemination Nakicenovic #

21 Towards a more Sustainable Future The magnitude of the change required is huge. The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues simultaneously. A paradigm shift is needed: energy enduse efficiency, new renewables, and, if concerns can be resolved, carbon capture and storage and nuclear.

22 Nakicenovic #