Grand Transformation toward Sustainable Future for All

Transcription

1 Grand Transformation toward Sustainable Future for All Nebojsa Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology ALPS International Symposium, RITE, Tokyo 7 February 2017

2 Global Transformations Years before present People Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #2

3 Global Transformations Neolithic Revolution Years before present People Million Neolithic 1700 A.D Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #3

4 Global Transformations Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions Years before present ,000 Million Industrial People Million Neolithic 1700 A.D Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, #4

5 Global Transformations People Anthropocene - Toward Sustainability ,000 Million Million 10 8 Neolithic Years before present after present Anthropocene Industrial Sustainability 1700 A.D Billion 5 Billion Million 5000 B.C. Hunter-Gatherer Source: Lutz & Scherbov, 2007; #5

6 Stockton Darlington Steam Railway 2017 #6

7 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #7

8 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #8

9 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #9

10 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #10

11 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #11

12 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #12

13 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #13

14 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #14

15 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #15

16 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #16

17 The Great Acceleration Rockström Source: Steffen et al IUCN, 2017 #17

18 The Paris Agreement Bildquelle: Limiting global Achieving net-zero Regular review and Mobilizing $100 warming to GHG emissions by mid of improvement of nationally billion a year in well below the 21st century determined contributions support by degrees celsius through 2025 Source: Schellnhuber, #18

19 100,000-year ice-core record Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen Rockström IUCN, 2017 #19

20 Holocene Temperature Profile Adapted from Shakun et al and Marcott et al Rockström IUCN, 2017 #20

21 Tipping Elements & Paris Adapted from Schellnhuber et al Rockström IUCN, 2017 #21

22 The Natomo Family, Kouakourou, Mali 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY 2017 #22

23 The Ukita Family, Tokyo, Japan 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY 2017 #23

24 Source: Tellus Institute 2017 #24

25 Japan SDG Implementation Guiding Principles & Specific Measures to Achieve SDGs 2017 #25

26 Integrated Systems approach to SDG-Pathways We lack a truly integrated, comprehensive quantitative understanding of sustainable development pathways, accounting for the inter-linkages between the economy, technology, environment, climate, human development and planetary boundaries #26

27 The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com) How to achieve global development within a safe and just operating space Safe space of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives and integrated models e.g. SSP1, GEA, DDPP Multiple-benefits and tradeoffs of transformation toward sustainable futures 2017 #27

28 The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com) 2017 #28

29 The World in 2050 Consortium AIMES Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES) Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative Earth Institute, Columbia University Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Future Earth German Development Institute (DIE) Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) Indian Institute International Futures Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) International Energy Agency (IEA) International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Joint Research Centre, European Commission Joint Global Change Research Institute at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (JGCRI/PNNL) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK) PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) Stanford University Stockholm Resilience Centre Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) The City University of New York (CUNY) Tsinghua University UN Population Division UN DESA UNEP- World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) University of Hamburg World Bank 2017 #29

30 The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com) Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries Transformation Diffusion Growing number of actors of change: green businesses cities civil society science IGOs (UN etc.) Legitimacy of BAU eroding New values and norms 2050: Sustainability transformation 2030: Achievement of SDGs Vision: Sustainable Future Incremental Radical Transformational Source: After WBGU, #30

31 The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com) Doing More with Less within Planetary Boundaries Transformation Diffusion Legitimacy of BAU eroding New values and norms 2050: Sustainability transformation 2030: Achievement of SDGs Vision: Sustainable Future Incremental Radical Transformational Source: After WBGU, #31

32 Transformational Change Source: After Granger Morgan, #32

33 Technological Change Dynamic, Cumulative, Systemic and Uncertain Incremental gradual (continuous) and cumulative improvements Abrupt radical, discontinuous and disruptive as gales of creative destruction Add as many mail-coaches as you please, you will never get a railroad by so doing. [Schumpeter, 1935/1951, #33

34 Disruptive Change Darum geht zu allen Völkern [ ] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt. Source: Campanale, Carobntracker 2017 #34 34

35 Incremental & Disruptive Technologies transformational cost performance Steam-powered Cugnot (1769) Benz Motorwagen (1885) We seek technologies that lead to fundamentally new learning curves existing technology disruptive Ford Model T (1914) time Source: Steve Chu, #35

36 UK Replacement within Vehicle Fleets 2017 #36

37 NET Power Breaks Ground on Demonstration Plant for Oxyfuel, Nantural Gas ZEP, La Porte, Texas 2017 #37

38 Possible transformational technologies 2017 #38

39 Learning Through Scale Economies of scale, US wind turbines Source: Grubler et al. ALPS-2012t 2017 #39

40 Pictures: Courtesy of Charlie Wilson 2017 #40

41 Fast vs. Slow Transformations slow fast systemic discrete technologies novel concepts, formative phases lumpy technologies & infrastructures early adopting markets weak adopter benefits (mainly less externalities) market-ready substitutes granular technologies & social networks late adopting markets strong adopter benefits, high relative advantage co-ordination problems, vested interests strong co-ordination and policy direction Source: Grubler et al, Energy Research, #41

42 Global Coal Power Plants 1627 GW and further 1112 GW are in planned to be installed until 2035 which gives a total of 2739 GW Source: IEA, #42

43 Urban Embodied Emissions Compared to Global Budget of 800 GtCO 2 for 2 o C Source: Müller et al., #43

44 SuperGrid and MagLev Trains 2017 #44

45 North-African Desertech Source: Hasni, #45

46 TNT Agent-Based Models Evolution of Technological Complexity: Technologies as agents in co-evolution and re-combination of systems Technology Development and Adoption: Type of agents: producers, consumers, institutions, all heterogeneous & interacting Main implications for Technology Transitions and SDGs: High complexity slows transitions and requires strong coordination and lengthy formative phases Ma, T., Grubler, A.,, N., Arthur, W.B.: 2008, Technologies as agents of change: A simulation model of the evolving complexity of the global energy system, IR , IIASA. Social interactions and coordination key in fast transitions, social network and peer effects as accelerators Grubler, A., Krey, V., Ma, T., and McCollum, D, 2016, New Approaches for Modeling Energy End-use Technology Adoption and Behavior in IAM Frameworks. RITE, Kyoto, Japan #46

47 Technology Diffusion Compared (# of cellphones, people with access to safe sanitation) 1.6E E E E E E E E+08 OECD Toilets Δt = 72 yrs K = Billion Cellphones Δt = 13 yrs 0.0E E+09 6E+09 5E+09 4E+09 3E+09 2E+09 1E+09 K = Billion Non-OECD Toilets Δt = 52 yrs Cellphones Δt = 11 yrs Why could cell phones reach 4 billion people within 10 years while 4 billion still lack access to safe sanitation after 100 years? Data: ITU, 2014, WB WDI, var. vols #47

48 THANK YOU