Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resources Systems

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGY SERIES Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resources Systems Edited by Janos J. Bogardi Division of Water Sciences, UNESCO, Paris, France Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Research Centre ofagricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznan, Poland and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

2 Contents List of Contributors page xiii 1 1 Janos J. Bogardi and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Aspects of uncertainty, reliability, and risk in flood forecasting systems incorporating weather radar Robert J. Moore Integrated regional risk assessment and safety management: Challenge from Agenda 21 Adrian V Gheorghe Uncertainty in flood forecasts 4.3 Reliability and system complexity 4.4 Risk and ensemble forecasting 4.5 Conclusion Regional safety planning On some organizational aspects Techniques for interactive decision processes in IRRASM The use of DSS for integrated risk assessment studies The use of GIS technology for IRRASM The Kovers approach 3 Risk analysis: The unbearable cleverness of bluffing V Klemes For practical purposes... Climate-change-impact scenarios: From bluffing to metabluffing In praise of theory and robust results A reality check, or a tale about unkunks, kunks, and skunks Pn Probabilistic hydrometeoroiogical forecasting 41 Roman Krzysztofowicz < i j. i 5 J J. J C A S ft J.U 41 Probabilistic forecasts 42 Precipitation forecasting system 43 Stage forecasting system 44 Flood warning decision system 45 Closure 45 6 Flood risk management: Risk cartography for objective negotiations 47 O. Gilard Definitions and concepts "Inondabilite" method Necessity and consequences of an objective negotiation Responses to the variability and increasing uncertainty of climate in Australia 54 Jonathan F. Thomas and Bryson C. Bates IX

3 Variability in Australia's climate and hydrology Climate change Urban systems Irrigation systems Infrastructure robustness Developing an indicator of a community's disaster risk awareness 62 Norio Okada The drought Measuring the "invisibles" of society A contextual analysis of the drought-related social messages of newspaper articles Analysis of the observed water saving phenomenon: Another examination of the working hypothesis Modeling the SPRD-WSP transformational mechanism: An analogy of the water saving action using the "tank" model Determination of capture zones of wells by Monte Carlo simulation 70 W. Kinzelbach, S. Vassolo, and G.-M. Li 11 Stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling for water yield from a semi-arid forested watershed 86 Aregai Tecle and David E. Rupp Study site characteristics Model development Analysis of results Evaluating risk and reliability in water yield Summary and conclusions Regional assessment of the impact of climate change on the yield of water supply systems 101 Richard M. Vogel, Christopher J. Bell, Ranjith R. Suresh, and Neil M. Fennessey Model time-step for regional assessment Development of regional hydroclimatological streamflow model Storage-reliability-resilience-yield relationships Sensitivity of water supply system behavior to climate change , Problems arising in the deterministic determination of capture zones Determination of a capture zone by Monte Carlo simulation Results 10 Controlling three levels of uncertainties for ecological risk models Thierry Fahmy, Eric Parent, and Dominique Gatel A new alert model Case study description Results Discussion Hydrological risk under nonstationary conditions changing hydroclimatological input 111 A. Bardossy and L. Duckstein Investigation of historical series Nonstationary scenarios Hydrological risks An example of ecological risk analysis Fuzzy compromise approach to water resources systems planning under uncertainty 122 Michael J. Bender Fuzzy compromise approach Examples

4 15 System and component uncertainties in water resources 133 Ben Chie Yen Sources of uncertainties Different measures of uncertainties Methods for uncertainty analysis Remarks on uncertainty analysis techniques Analysis of relative contributions of uncertainties Concluding remarks Managing water quality under uncertainty: Application of a new stochastic branch and bound method 143 B. J. Lence and A. Ruszczyriski The role of forecasting Quantifying system sustainability using multiple risk criteria 169 Daniel P. Loucks Sustainability: Some issues and challenges Defining sustainability of water resources systems Measuring sustainability of water resources systems Final remarks Irreversibility and sustainability in water resources systems 181 H. P. Nachtnebel XI Elements of a water quality management model 16.3 A probabilistic water quality management model 16.4 The stochastic branch and bound method 16.5 Application of the stochastic branch and bound method for managing BOD discharges in the Willamette River Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems under climate change Bijaya P. Shrestha 17.1 Three-phase system framework 17.2 Risk and uncertainty 17.3 Hydrometeoroiogical input and climate change 17.4 Modeling and simulation 17.5 Analysis of results 17.6 Uncertainty of risk analysis 17.7 Discussion and conclusions 18 Risk and reliability in water resources management: Theory and practice Uri Shamir Economy-based irreversibility considerations 20.3 Physically-based reversibility considerations 20.4 Reversibility in environmental management 20.5 Summary and conclusions Future of reservoirs and their management criteria Kuniyoshi Takeuchi Controlling factors of future needs of reservoirs 21.3 Reservoir sedimentation 21.4 Outlook of reservoirs in the future 21.5 Reliable and robust management of reservoirs Performance criteria for multiunit reservoir operation and water allocation problems 199 Darko Milutin and Janos J. Bogardi Case study system 200

5 XII 22.3 Genetic algorithm model 22.4 Performance evaluation 22.5 Analyses and results 22.6 Discussion 23 Risk management for hydraulic systems under hydrological loads 209 Erich J. Plate The risk management process 23.3 Hazard identification 23.4 Risk assessment 23.5 Risk mitigation 23.6 Concluding remarks