Climate Change and the Communities, Culture and Economy of Snowdonia

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1 Climate Change and the Communities, Culture and Economy of Snowdonia Introduction One of the greatest long term threats facing the world today is human-induced climate change. There is now compelling evidence showing that human activity over the last 200 years, such as the burning of fossil fuels, has led to changes in the Earth s climate, changes that will be felt throughout the social, economic and environmental spectrum. We, as individuals, communities or business owners, will be affected in some way by climate change, and while the exact levels of impact will vary depending on who we are or what we do, some degree of impact is inevitable. Consequently, it is vital that we start preparing now for these changes by raising awareness of climate change, implementing mitigation actions aimed at curbing the level of future changes, and taking appropriate adaptation measures to deal with those changes we are already committed to as a result of historic emissions.

2 Snowdonia 2090s By the 2090s, Snowdonia s climate will feel very different from that we know today. Based on the latest climate modelling techniques, the following changes are predicted in Snowdonia by the 2090s, using 3 scenarios based on differing levels of greenhouse gas emissions, referred to as low-, medium- and high-emissions scenarios (please note we are currently on course for a high emissions scenario): Scenario Mean Summer Temp Increase ( C)* Mean Winter Temp Increase ( C)* Low Medium High Scenario Mean change in summer precipitation (%)* Mean change in winter precipitation (%)* Low Medium High *baseline levels average. In addition to a change in our climate, experts predict that severe weather events are due to increase in frequency, such as an increase in periods of drought and heavy rainfall. Whilst the prospect of milder winters and warmer, drier summers may be welcomed by some, such changes will not come without associated risks. There is strong evidence that climate change is already affecting our natural environment, as bird migration patterns alter and trees flower earlier than they did only a few decades ago. And yet it appears that, in general, the threats posed by a changing climate have yet to become embedded in the common psyche, whether that be due to scepticism, ignorance or lack of understanding of the subject. However, attitudes are slowly changing as the climate change agenda becomes increasingly embedded in national policies, and awareness on the subject slowly becomes more mainstream in business sectors and amongst the general public.

3 Our built environment When most people think of Snowdonia, they imagine the rugged mountain peaks of the Snowdon massif, the lush oak woodlands of Meirionydd or the golden sands of Morfa Harlech. However, somewhat less would consider the built environment that is the villages, homes, businesses and associated infrastructure that are present within the National Park. These are often ignored. And yet without the vibrant communities, modern day Snowdonia would indeed be a very different place; it would become both a bleak and extremely difficult place to live in. As with the natural environment, climate change poses significant threats to all of these things, threats which vary greatly in both their type and level of risk. Examples of the threats posed are discussed below: Increased pressure on essential infrastructure due to extreme weather events, particularly flooding. These include transport links such as roads, bridges and railway lines, homes and offices and telecommunication lines. Whilst provisions are currently being made to allow more and more people to be able to work from home, in such rural areas where so many are reliant on transport for everyday living damage to such elementary services could have profound impacts on local communities and businesses. Furthermore, they could hinder the ability of emergency services to reach their required destination during times of need, thus putting lives at risk. Water resources may become scarce during summer periods, as a result of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures. As a result, restrictions in water usage during drought periods could become common in many of our communities in addition to reducing the water resource available to emergency services for dealing with wild-fires etc., and drinking-water for farmers livestock. However, it is not only communities in Snowdonia which will affected by water shortages, but also larger towns and cities found in north-east Wales and north-west England could this result in the call for new reservoirs to be built in Wales in order to meet water demand in these areas? While this may never happen, we must nevertheless bear such possibilities in mind because, ultimately, people need clean water to live, and there may come a point when critical decisions will have to be taken, probably to the displeasure of many people. Threats posed by tidal, river and other forms of flooding are likely to increase further, putting people, properties and infrastructure at risk. Local authorities will increasingly need to integrate climate change effects into all aspects of their work, including the creation of local development plans, highway works and in planning to name but a few. Home owners may find insurance prices going up, or even that they

4 are unable to get home insurance at all, whereas home-buyers may find difficulty obtaining mortgages for houses in flood risk zones. It is estimated that the total number of properties under threat from flooding in Wales is likely to increase between 40% and 250% by the 2080s. Health and Well-being Believe it or not, the health and well-being of an individual can be profoundly influenced by the climate we live in think about it, those who live in hot, sunny areas are more likely to get sun-burnt that those living in cold, harsh environments. It has already been suggested that globally, climate change is responsible for around 400,000 deaths annual per annum, and this figure expecting to reach 700,000 by Whilst figures for Snowdonia aren t envisaged to be anywhere near as drastic as this, a changing climate in conjunction with increased occurrence of severe weather events, will impact on our health and well-being, especially amongst the most vulnerable in society such as the elderly. Impacts could include: A decrease in illnesses and mortalities caused by cold weather as winters become milder (estimated at about 1000 less deaths per annum throughout Wales by the 2050s); Heat-related deaths and hospital admissions increasing as a result of hotter summers, including heat stress, dehydration and increased rates of skin cancer. Such threats are already being considered at a National level with the publication of the Heatwave Plan for Wales, which can viewed on the Welsh Government website;

5 Climate change has resulted in the pollen season becoming longer and arriving approximately 10 days earlier than 50 years ago, increasing related illnesses and health risks; Insect and water-borne diseases and infections may become more apparent as warmer summers and milder winters promote their spread and reproduction rates. Not only do these pose a threat to humans, but also to livestock; Increased risk of road accidents associated with periods of heavy rainfall or gales. Whilst standing water on roads will pose a danger in itself, landslides could become more frequent posing additional threats. However, icy conditions associated with cold winters could become less frequent as winter temperatures increase; The risk of injuries or mortalities from wild-fires will increase as such events become more frequent. As with insect and waterbourne diseases, wild-fires not only pose a threat to humans, but also to domestic and wild animals; Threats from flooding. In addition to directly impacting on people through the loss of life or severe injury, severe flooding events can have significant negative impacts on mental health of individuals due to the trauma caused from such events. While some of the above may seem extreme, these are the kind of threats we can expect as the effects of climate change take-hold. Consequently, it is essential to promote the public-awareness of these threats whilst adopting integrated and reasonable management techniques to reduce the impact of climate change during the 21 st century.

6 Culture and Heritage Snowdonia is home to a rich tapestry of history stretching back over several millennia to prehistoric times. From Celtic hill forts and medieval castles to 19 th century chapels and relics of the slate mining industry, Snowdonia is unrivalled in terms of the cultural heritage it has to offer. Whilst many would not associate culture and heritage with climate change, as with all other topics there are related concerns. For example, monuments and buildings of cultural significance are as much under threat as modern buildings, if not more so as a consequence of their age and lack of modern design. Furthermore, many are in a state of disrepair. Consequently, they become more vulnerable to severe weather events such as high winds, flooding or even drought. However, it is always important to remember that climate change can have positive impacts as well as negative ones. As mentioned above, we could see an increase in the Welsh tourism industry over the coming century as a result of climate change. As tourist numbers increase, so too will the number of people visiting sites of cultural significance. This could lead to new opportunities for generating revenue, or could justify additional expenditure on such monuments to ensure their continued existence. This is especially true if we see an increase in the number of foreign tourists visiting Snowdonia, as they are often fascinated and intrigued with the history of north Wales.

7 New opportunities or potential conflicts? Provided adequate adaptation measures are implemented beforehand, climate change may bring about new opportunities in some sectors, none more so than in the leisure and tourism industry. For reasons such as the British climate becoming more attractive to holiday makers whilst foreign climates become less so, we could see an increase in the tourist industry over the coming decades from both domestic and international visitors. However, such opportunities could come at a cost. While such an increase may create opportunities for local people to gain employment and therefore remain in Snowdonia, it could just as easily lead to an increased rate of inward migration into the National Park as business owners look to take advantage of the altering climate. This could lead to an increased demand for holiday-homes in an area which already has the highest density of holiday-homes in the UK. As well as forcing house prices up and altering the dynamics of our communities, this would likely put additional pressures on the Welsh language, which has been shown to be in decline according to the 2011 census. A recent study by Menter Iaith Conwy estimated that only 5% of workers associated with the outdoor recreation sector in north-west Wales are Welsh speakers, an alarming statistic considering the area is considered to be one of the strongholds of the Welsh language. Consequently, if local people are to take advantage of any increase in tourism, provisions must be made to ensure that adequate training and financial backing is in place to allow for this, as well as affordable housing in an area where average house prices are far higher than the national average. If such factors aren t taken into consideration, we will likely see the continued outward migration of young people from Snowdonia over the coming decades.

8 So what does this all mean for the economy? Due to the complexities relating to climate change, it s almost impossible to predict its exact economic cost - both on a global and a local scale. However, this doesn t mean that people haven t tried. Current figures suggest that economic cost of climate change currently stands at an estimated 0.8% of global GDP, with this figure set to rise to 2.1% by 2030 (DARA, 2012). Whilst such estimates aren t available on a localised scale, in an area where the main economic drivers are so reliant on the weather (land use industries and tourism), it is apparent that the future economy of Snowdonia will be significantly influenced by climatic changes. The economic cost of climate change is dependent on many factors, some directly linked to climate change, and others indirectly. Future costs relating to climate change will heavily depend on actions taken now if we continue with current efforts (or lack of) in relation to mitigation and adaptation, then future economic costs of dealing with the changes are likely to be much higher. Consequently, decisions made now will have a profound impact on the economic cost of dealing with climate change in the future. Unfortunately, the climate change agenda is often found near the bottom end of peoples agendas when weighed against other topics such as health, education and the economy. However, what many fail to understand is that climate change is integrated into all of these topics in some way, and should not be considered as a standalone topic. Adapting and mitigating for climate change should be a continuous process, given due weight in the decision making processes of across the board. By doing so, the economic cost of mitigation and adaptation could be minimised and distributed over time, thus having less long-term economic impacts. As previously mentioned, the economy of Snowdonia could benefit from climate change provided that adequate planning is undertaken in relation to mitigation and adaptation. Whilst there are inevitable costs associated with climate change adaptation and mitigation i.e. improving flood defences, carbon reduction measures, improving infrastructure etc, Snowdonia is in a good position to benefit from a warmer climate due to the nature of its main economic drivers. Land use industries (farming and forestry) can evolve and diversify, as they have always done, to take advantage of increased tourism. In addition, new methods of farming could be utilised to make use of longer growing seasons and new opportunities in crop growth whilst the demand for domestic forest products could once again grow as the cost of importing foreign timber

9 increases. Ultimately, with the right investment and appropriate forward planning, there is no reason why climate change should impact negatively on Snowdonia s economy. Summary It is clear that climate change poses a risk to all of us, whether we live, work or are simply visitors to Snowdonia National Park. Whilst it is inevitable that a level of uncertainty surrounds the degree of risk posed, there is no doubt that such climatic changes cannot occur without having some impact on the world, whether that be on us, as individuals, our communities, businesses or the natural environment around us. Ultimately, all are linked in some way or another. It is therefore vital that we all become familiar with what climate change means to us so that we can adequately prepare for future changes. Whilst most tend to focus on the negatives of climate change, it is worth bearing in mind that some benefits may arise from it, none more so than in the leisure and tourism sector. It is therefore up to us to make sure that we are ready to adapt to the changes in our climate not only to minimise the risk posed to us, but so that we can take advantage of opportunities that may arise over the coming decades.

10 Bibliography DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum. (2012). Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2 nd addition A Guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet. DARA, Spain. DEFRA. (2012). Climate Change Risk Assessment: Government Report. UK Government, London.