Monitoring and Evaluation of South Africa s climate-relevant policies

Transcription

1 Monitoring and Evaluation of South Africa s climate-relevant policies Mitigation-relevant policies Climate Policy evaluation workshop, Mexico city Thapelo Letete Director Climate change mitigation & emissions M&E

2 1. Policy mandate to climate change M&E 2. Approach to System design 3. SA s Climate change M&E system 4. Tracking transition to a lower-carbon economy 5. The case of the Energy Efficiency policy Overview

3 Chapter 5 of the NDP sets out government s vision of South Africa s transition to a low-carbon, resilient economy and just society which is well underway by 2030: The NCCR Policy 2011 : a. Adapting to inevitable climate change impacts b. Make a fair contribution to the global mitigation efforts c. Near-Term priority flagship programmes d. Job-creation e. Mainstreaming climate-resilient development f. Resource mobilization g. a country-wide monitoring and evaluation system 1. Detailed analysis and implementation of Mitigation policies and measures 2. Ensuring a just transition 3. Building resilience of both the economy and the society 4. Structural change, trade-offs and lock-ins: 5. Managing the transition 6. The state to assume a guiding role while responsibility for the transition is still borne collectively by all stakeholders 7. Align existing policy and mainstream mitigation and adaptation considerations into the activities of all government departments across local, provincial and national government. 8. Build an evidence base: To inform planning, prioritize data-collection mechanisms, including urgently setting up mandatory monitoring, evaluation and reporting processes for all relevant stakeholders. 9. Monitor, report and verify to understand South Africa s progress against national goals of the envisaged economy and society 1. INTRO - Policy Mandate

4 Over-arching objective: To track the transition towards a lower-carbon & climate-resilient South Africa, thereby providing evidence base to inform effective climate change response Lower-carbon What are the GHG emission trends? Which mitigation response measures are being undertaken? Which mitigation responses are working well in terms of impact & effectiveness? Climate-resilience What are the impacts of climate change? Which adaptation responses are being implemented & which ones are working well? How is South Africa s vulnerability and adaptive capacity changing? Cross-cutting objectives Climate finance: What are the finance flows and impacts? How effectively is the finance contributing to climate change response? Communication and learning: How are the outputs of the M&E system communicated and fed back to inform future decisions? 1. M&E system Objectives

5 T Collected Data/Information (Measuring, reporting & verification) Output Indicators (Impact assessment) Objectives & Output needs assessment System Design approach: Data & information: required for estimating the indicators Indicators: informed by the objectives and the output needs assessment M&E system objectives and Output needs assessment WORK BACKWARDS WHICH INFORMS THIS STEP TO INFORM THIS STEP START HERE Data & information required to estimate indicators of tracking transition to a climate-resilient society Data & information required to estimate indicators of tracking transition to a lower-carbon economy Data & information required to estimate indicators of tracking climate finance Data & information required to estimate other indicators Indicators of tracking the transition to a climate resilient society Indicators of tracking the transition to a climate resilient society Indicators of tracking the transition to a climate resilient society Other indicators To track transition to a climate-resilient society To track transition to a lower-carbon economy To track climate finance Other information needs 2. System design APPROACH

6 Indicators Feedback & learning Feedback & learning Monitoring = MRV Evaluation = impact Analyses Data & info provision Data storage & processing, Quality control Data & information analyses Deliverables Data and information coordination network(s) Standardization [MRV guidelines] The Webbased M&E System Platform & Database (QA / QC) Climate resilience analyses Climate Finance analysis Lower-carbon analyses R e p o r t i n g Annual publication of Climate Change monitoring process UNFCCC Reporting Obligations OTHERS Feedback & learning 3. The M&E SYSTEM

7 Definitions: 1. Ex-ante: before the response measure is implemented 2. Ex-post: after the response measure has been implemented Taken from WRI protocol: Policy & action standard 4. Assessing mitigation policies and measures

8 Mapping the causal chain: example 4. WRI protocol for assessing policies and measures

9 Defining baselines & policy scenarios 4. WRI protocol for assessing policies and measures

10 1 2 3 Output / Deliverable Annual Climate Change Response Report [Based on: A. The National Climate Change Response Policy B. The National Development Plan] UNFCCC National communications (every 4 years) UNFCCC Biennial Update Report Objectives to be tracked 1. carbon emissions reduction through mitigation policies and measures 2. Successes and effectiveness of mitigation policies and measures (cost, impact, effectiveness, lessons) 3. Reduction in dependency on carbon, natural resources and energy; 4. economic activity decoupling from environmental degradation and carbon-intensive energy; 5. economic activity vs. consumption of non-renewable natural resources, including fossil fuels 1. Policies and measures for mitigation (ex-ante policy assessment) 2. Barriers and opportunities for implementing mitigation response policies and measures 1. Mitigation policies and actions and their effects (Description, objectives, progress in implementation and results achieved) 4. Key objectives to track in Lower-carbon transition

11 RESPONSE MEASURE Policy Strategy Programme Project Tier 1 Hi-Level indicators. Indicators that track the extent to which the country is becoming lower-carbon Tier 2 Sectorial & sub-sectorial-level indicators. This tier links the bottom-up and top-down indicators. Tier 3 Response measure-level indicators. Indicators of the impact of individual response measures. 1. High- level 2. Sectorial & subsectorial-level 3. Response measure-level Top-down Bottom-up 4. Lower-carbon TIERED- APPROACH

12 INDICATOR GROUP Comments Indicator Title Description T Sustainable carbon levels Lower-carbon productivity The primary indicator group to track the country s performance against the national emissions trajectory range and the Copenhagen pledge Key indicators to assess decoupling of economic activity with carbon emissions Reflecting overall efficiency of carbon resource utilization in an economy as well as lower-carbon technology level of a nation in a certain period National GHG emissions profile Carbon intensity of the economy Energy intensity of the economy GHG emissions + GHG removals, expressed as CO2-eq CO2-eq / GDP TPES / GDP Lower-carbon consumption A proxy indicator of the nation s consumption pattern Per-capita GHG emissions CO2-eq / population Lower-carbon resourcing The development of clean energy (including renewable energy) is correlated to both resource endowment and technology development in a country Proportion of renewables and carbon-free energy to total primary energy Carbon intensity of energy supply ( Quantity of Renewable and zero-carbon energy) / TPES CO2-eq / TPES Lower-carbon sector growth Demonstrates growth of key sectors Growth in green jobs 4. TIER 1 (National-level) Indicators Number and type of green jobs

13 INDICATOR GROUP Comments Indicator Title Description T Sector, sub-sector or company-level carbon profile Collective impact of response measures per sector, sub-sector or company carbon intensity of the sector, subsector or company Sector, sub-sector or company-level energy resourcing Lower-carbon sector or subsector growth Sub-/sector or company annual emissions to be measured against the respective GHG emissions baseline trajectory Collective climate change mitigation impact of all the responses undertaken within the sector, sub-sector or company and those that are just relevant to the sector and sub-sector. Indicators of the linkages between a company, sector or sub-sector s economic activity with its carbon emissions Sectorial or sub-sectorial GDP and units of service or product delivered can be used as indicators of economic activity Energy utilization and intensity of the company, sector or sub-sector, including the use of renewable or zero-carbon energy sources Demonstrates growth of key sectors and sub-sectors Sub-/ sector or Company annual GHG profile Net change in the GHG profile Collective mitigation impact of responses Carbon intensity of the sector or subsector Carbon intensity of service or product delivered Energy use Proportion of renewables or zerocarbon energy to total energy use Energy intensity of production or servicedelivered Growth in green jobs GHG emissions + GHG removals, in CO2-eq Difference between projected and actual GHG profiles, in CO2- eq Sum of the GHGs mitigated by all response measures, in CO2-eq CO2-eq / (sub-) sector- GDP CO2-eq / unit of product or service Company, sector or sub-sector s in Mega Joules (MJ) % of Renewable or zero energy for each Company, sector or sub-sector MJ / unit of product or service Number and type of green jobs 4. TIER 2 (sub-/sectoral) - Indicators

14 4. TIER 3 (response measure) - Indicators INDICATOR GROUP Comments Indicator Title Description T Implementation Indicators Impact indicators Effectiveness indicators Indicator of the phases or stages of implementation of the response measures. These are to be defined together with the owner/implementer of the response measure climate change mitigation impact of the response measure Indicators of impact(s) on other relevant sustainable development priorities, including job-creation, also known as co-benefit or cocost indicators Key indicators of the effectiveness of the response measures in responding to climate change Achieved progress in implementation Implementation stages or phases or units, etc. achieved (as appropriate) Net GHGs reduced = reduced GHG emissions + GHGs removed from the atmosphere by sinks; expressed in CO2-eq Jobs created Other social, environmental and economic cobenefit indicators Cost-effectiveness Job-creation effectiveness (relative to baseline) Number & type of jobs created (As appropriately defined) CO2-eq per Rand No of jobs per CO2-eq Or per Rand

15 Policy name National Climate Change Response Policy, 2011 National Energy Efficiency Strategy, 2005 Envisaged benefits GHG emission reduction Decoupling economic activity with resource utilization & environmental harm Job creation GHG emission reduction Enhancing energy security Decoupling economic activity from energy use Renewable Energy policy, 2003 GHG emission reduction Enhancing energy security Decoupling CO2 emissions from economic activity Job-creation and water saving National Industrial Biofuels Strategy, 2009 Decoupling CO2 emissions from economic activity Local economic development Job-creation Carbon Tax policy (in preparation) GHG emission reduction National Waste management Strategy, 2011 Promote waste minimization, recycling and recovery Ensure efficient waste services delivery Grow contribution of waste sector to green economy 4. SA mitigation-relevant policies (examples)

16 Name of policy National Energy Efficiency Strategy Description To explore the potential for improved energy utilisation through reducing the country s energy intensity (and reducing greenhouse gas emissions) Includes supply-side EE, Demand side management, SWH, etc. Targets Summary of envisaged benefits (M&E objectives) M&E approach ( ) Economy-wide final energy demand target of 12% by 2015 relative to a 2000 baseline. Individual Sector targets: Industry and Mining (15%), Commercial and Public buildings (15%), Residential (10%) and Transport (9%). 1. Reduction in final energy demand 2. Reduction in GHG emissions 3. Decoupling economic activity from energy use and carbon emissions 4. Enhancing energy security Modelling; Decomposition analysis; Surveys; Energy balances; National Statistics 5. The Case of Energy Efficiency in South Africa

17 Cumulative energy efficiency improvement relative to 2000 baseline 2011 change in consumption relative to 2000 baseline (PJ) 1, TOTAL CHANGE Activity level changes Structural changes Efficiency changes % 25.% 20.% 15.% 10.% 5.% 0.% % 5. EE- Preliminary M&E results

18 Change in GHG emissions from 2010 (Mt) Economy-wide total final energy consumption (PJ) Without efficiency changes With efficiency changes GHG emission changes in 2011 vs Total Change Activity level changes Structural changes Efficiency changes EE - Preliminary M&E results

19 2.30 Decoupling National CO2 emissions from GDP CO2/GDP Lineal (CO2/GDP) Preliminary M&E results

20 The Energy Efficiency strategy had overachieved its target by about 15% in 2011 Reduction of 75 Mtonnes CO2-eq were realized in 2011 relative to 2000 Overall national GDP dependence on CO2 has been halved over the period Job-creation & cost-effectiveness are yet to be quantified Final results to be published at the end of Summary EE case study

21 MUCHO GRACIAS