A#GOES#Thermal/based# Drought#Early#Warning# Index#for#NIDIS # # Christopher#Hain#(ESSIC/UMD)# Martha#Anderson#(USDA)# Xiwu#Zhan#(NESDIS#STAR)#

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1 AGOESThermal/based DroughtEarlyWarning IndexforNIDIS ChristopherHain(ESSIC/UMD) MarthaAnderson(USDA) XiwuZhan(NESDISSTAR) KingtseMo(CPC) MarkSvoboda(NDMC) BrianWardlow(NDMC) JohnMecikalski(UAH) WilliamKustas(USDA)

2 PRECIPITATION SURFACE TEMPERATURE transpiration & evaporation Veg stress parms T soil & T veg transpiration & evaporation T veg soil evaporation Bare soil evap parms Sfc moisture infiltration Soil hydraulic parms runoff T Soil soil evaporation Rootzone moisture drainage Soil moisture holding capacity Root uptake Root distribution parms Given known radiative energy inputs, how much water loss is required to keep the soil and vegetation at the observed temperatures? WATER BALANCE APPROACH ( forward modeling ) REMOTE SENSING APPROACH ( inverse modeling )

3 Sensitivity to irrigation Landsat 7 60m MODIS 1km ET PET

4 Sensitivity to shallow water tables Simulated climatological water table* Temporal variability in ET/PET shallow deep low high *Miquez/Machoetal,BAMS,90,663/672

5 AtmosphereLandExchangeInverse(ALEXI)Model T RAD (θ)~f c (θ)t c +[1/f c (θ)]t s Strengths)of)ALEXI)in)ET)and)Drought)Monitoring) DiagnosdcLSMsbasedonTIRremotesensinglikeALEXI,require)no)informa:on)regarding) antecedent)precipita:on)or)soil)moisture)storage)capacity) the$current$surface$moisture$status$is$ deduced$directly$from$the$remotely$sensed$radiometric$temperature$signal.$$ $ Vegetadon/basedindices(suchasNDVIandVHI)arereladvelyslowresponsevariablestomoisture deficits,showingdeclineonlyaherdamagehasbeendone,whilealexi)is)able)to)determine) poten:al)vegeta:on)stressandpotendallyprovideearlywarningprecedingdetectabledegradadon invegetadonindices.

6 APPLICATIONS monitoring drought Anomalies in AET PET Evaporative Stress Index

7 USDM) ΔUSDM) ALEXI) ESIC1) ΔSPIC3) ΔSMnoah) (NLDAS) ΔETnoah) (NLDAS) OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR D0D1D2D3D4 Drier) /2/1012 WeJer) 2002

8 USDM) ΔUSDM) ALEXI) ESIC1) ΔSPIC3) ΔSMnoah) (NLDAS) ΔETnoah) (NLDAS) OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR D0D1D2D3D4 Drier) /2/1012 WeJer) 2005

9 USDM) ΔUSDM) ALEXI) ESIC1) ΔSPIC3) ΔSMnoah) (NLDAS) ΔETnoah) (NLDAS) OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR D0D1D2D3D4 Drier) /2/1012 WeJer) 2007

10 2011 USDM) ΔUSDM) ALEXI) ESIC1) AUG JUL JUN MAY APR

11 DroughtIndexIntercomparisonAccomplishments SpadaldistribudonsinESI,represendnganomaliesintheradioofactualtopotendalET,werefound tocorrelatewellwithpalernsinprecipitadon/basedindices,nldassm/etandintheusdm, respondingtorainfalleventsatmonthlydmescales. BecausetheUSDMcannotbeconsideredametricofabsolutetruthindroughtmonitoring,thisstudy isnotintendedasanassessmentofindexperformance,butratherastudyofwhattypesand dmescalesofinformadonappeartobemostcorrelatedwithsubjecdveexpert/interpreteddrought severitydelineadons. Insomecases,lowcorreladonsmightinfactidendfyregionsofuniquecontribudonbyapardcular indicator,highlighdnginformadonnotcurrentlyconveyedintheusdm.forexample,loweresi correladonsarefoundinareaswheregroundwateriscontribudng(naturallyorthroughirrigadon)to thesurfacemoisturesupply. FutureworkwillbecompletedinYear3,focusingonanexpandedintercomparisonbetweenALEXIESI (andsurfacefluxesdmates)andnldas.

12 ESI Product Delivery

13 Websiteiscurrentlypassword/protectedtothegeneralpublicaswerolloutthesecurrentcapabilides andfuturefeaturestoend/usersatcpcandndmcforinidaltesdng.

14 Year3Priorides 1. ExpandCONUSintercomparisonbetweenALEXIandNLDASsurfacefluxes(ET;H;G;R n );ALEXI providesanindependentassessmentofnldassurfacefluxes. 2. FurtherrefinementsoftherealdmeexecudonofALEXIatSTAR. 3. ESIwebsitewillbeexpandedtoincludeaddidonalfeaturessuchasNLDASSM/ETanomalies; changemapsforalldroughtproducts;addidonalfeaturessuggestedfromend/userfeedback. 4. ESIproductswillbeginbeavailablethroughtheNIDISDroughtPortal(hlp:// (ETA:early2012). 5. Gatherfeedbackfromend/usersatCPCandNDMCregardingindexperformance,data preferencesandsupplementarymodeloutputvariablesthatmaybeusedinthecreadonof regionaldroughtoutlooks. Publicadons: M.C.Anderson,C.Hain,B.Wardlow,A.Pimstein,J.R.Mecikalski,W.P.Kustas,2011:EvaluadonofDroughtIndicesBased onthermalremotesensingofevapotranspiradonoverthecondnentalunitedstates.j.$climate,24, doi: /2010JCLI C.R.Hain,W.T.Crow,J.R.Mecikalski,M.C.Anderson,andT.Holmes(2011),Anintercomparisonofavailablesoilmoisture esdmatesfromthermalinfraredandpassivemicrowaveremotesensingandlandsurfacemodeling,j.$geophys.$res.,116, D15107,doi: /2011JD