Thailand s Developing Gas and Petrochemical Industry Prasert Bunsumpun President PTT Public Company Limited

Transcription

1 Thailand s Developing Gas and Petrochemical Industry Prasert Bunsumpun President PTT Public Company Limited March 16, 25 1

2 Thailand at a Glance Thailand is located in the heart of SE Asia Population of 63 million and 24 GDP of USD 163 Bn Since the crisis, Thailand has recovered to be one of the more robust economies in the region Growth of 6% over the last 3 years / We have a strong competitive position in many sectors Automotive hub for SE Asia Emerging leadership position in manufacturing Our natural gas industry has been one of the key engines of economic growth Low cost and efficient electricity generation World class petrochemical manufacturing encompassing the entire value chain 2

3 Commercial Primary Energy Supply Sources Unit : KBD (Crude Oil Equivalent) Current energy demand at 1.5 million barrels per day 3,5 2,5 1,5 Thailand Energy Supply More Gas Less Oil % 4% % 93% CAGR ( 8 3) 8 % CAGR ( 4 15) 7 % Hydro/Electricity Coal/Lignite Natural Gas Oil 1,455 2% Ind 78% 15% Ind 74% 36% 47% Imp 85% 16% 37% 46% % Source : Energy Policy and Planning Office, Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency Energy demand projected to grow at 7% CAGR to 3 million barrels per day by 215 Today, Oil imports reduced from 9% to 47% Meanwhile, natural gas has grown to 36% of overall energy supply Share of natural gas in energy fuel mix is expected to be maintained over the next decade 3

4 Unit : BTU/SCF 3,5 2,5 1, Note : GSP = Gas Separation Plant ,5 2,5 1,5 5 Power Sector Has Dominated Demand CAGR ( 81 9) 21 % GSP 1 First Utilization in Industry GSP 2 1 st Pipeline CAGR ( 91 4) 12 % GSP 4 GSP 3 Power Domestic GSP GSP 5 Industry 77% % Myanmar Pipeline 2 nd Pipeline Import 74% 9% 26% Demand to Date Rapid demand growth of 12% CAGR over the last decade Power generation sector dominates with about 75% share Gas has 7% share of generation fuel Increasing share of demand for feedstock and industrial use Supply to Date Mainly domestic offshore gas from the Gulf of Thailand through two main offshore pipelines Imported gas from Myanmar since 2 to secure supply 4

5 GSP/Feedstock Demand Poised To Expand Unit : BTU/SCF 7, 6, 5, 4, , 6, 5, 4, CAGR ( 4 15) 7 % 14% 9% 77% 26% 74% 3 rd Pipeline GSP (Gas Separation Plant) Industry Power (New IPP 4% ) Future Domestic Import Domestic LNG 24% 11% 65% LNG Receiving Terminal 17% 31% 14% 39% Demand in the Future Continued robust demand in line with economic growth Strong demand for petrochemical feedstock increases GSP share to 24% Expanded demand base through combined cycle, NGV, cogeneration, and district cooling technology Supply in the Future 3 rd offshore pipeline to expand domestic supply by 1,86 MMSCFD Plans for LNG import underway 5

6 Thai E&P Industry Offers Strong Potential Thailand Petroleum Concessions Myanmar Laos 7 6 Natural Gas Reserves vs R/P Ratio Bar : Reserve (Tcf) Line : R/P Ratio (Yr) 3P/Production Possibl 3 Thailand 2 1 Cumulative Production Probable Proved 2 1 Cambodia Malaysia E&P sector maturing but continues to offer strong production growth potential USD 1.2 Bn per year investment Only about 1% of explored acreage currently producing >4 years production remaining 6

7 Gas Network Well Established and Growing Yadana Yetagun Ban I Tong Ratchaburi Thap Sakae Tha Luang Kaeng Khoi Compressor SB K Kp 361 Wang Noi korat Bang Pakong Rayong 3 rd pipeline network to be commissioned in early 26 Total offshore capacity will be increased to 4, MMSCFD Khanom Compresso r Benjamas Tantawa n Platong Erawan Pipeline from Myanmar has capacity of 1,2 MMSCFD PRP Paili n Bongkot Arthit Maximum Capacity 3 rd Pipeline : 1,86 MMSCFD Existing Offshore Pipeline : 2,15 MMSCFD Western Pipeline : 1,2 MMSCFD Potential for 4 th offshore pipeline under review JDA Total Capacity 5,21 MMSCFD Revised Master Plan 3 Pipeline Existing Offshore Pipeline 7

8 LNG Complements Our Domestic Gas Supply Iran China Sakhalin LNG is an attractive complement to domestic and regional supplies Qatar Yemen Oman India Plans to commission 5 MTPA LNG receiving terminal by 21 Browse NWS Tangguh Darwin Terminal to be located on the Eastern Seaboard (17 km from Bangkok) to enable seamless integration with existing supply network 8

9 Capturing Gas Liquids Adds Value To Our Gas Thailand has become a major LPG exporter due to steady growth in processing capacity Khanom GSP 4 Thailand GSP 1-3,5-8 Rayong GSP Capacity 1,7 3,8 (MMSCFD) (GSP 1-5) (+GSP 6-8) Production Capacity (Million Ton/Yr) Ethane Propane/LPG NGL.4 1. Total Gas separation has established a foundation for petrochemical feedstock supply Unit : Kton/Yr 7, 6, 5, 4, National LPG Demand - Supply Balance Domestic Demand GSP 1 Phase I GSP 2 Export GSP 4 GSP 3 GSP 5 Phase III GSP 6 Refinery GSP 7,8 Import GSP

10 Three Waves Of Petrochemical Development Phase I ( ) Expand value of natural gas Reduce dependency of petrochemical imports Need to develop Eastern Seaboard (Map Ta Phut) using infrastructure to drive development Phase II ( ) Expand product range Enhance feedstock diversity/flexibility Strengthen capabilities to enter international market Liberlize petrochemical industry Phase III (24-218) World scale ambition Enhance competitiveness Create a fully integrated manufacturing cluster around Map Ta Phut Establish domestic and international business alliances Government Participation 1

11 Commitment to Petchem Sector Growth 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, Unit: KTA Olefins Domestic Demand Phase III Phase II Phase I Unit: KTA 3,5 Aromatics 2,5 Domestic Demand Phase III 1,5 5 Phase II Thailand is committed to grow the petrochemical sector Wave I and II (198 24) Total investment of USD 22 Bn Total revenues generated ~ USD 6 Bn or 4.5% of GDP Wave III (24 218) Fully integrated with existing gas supply infrastructure Total investment of USD 21 Bn E&P & Gas Infrastructure USD 11 Bn Petrochemical USD 1 Bn Expect revenues generated ~ USD 7 Bn

12 Conclusion Thailand has abundant rich natural gas reserves and a thriving upstream E&P industry Natural gas demand continues to grow through the steady expansion of power generation and petrochemical capacity Our supply will mainly come from our own domestic reserves but we will complement this with LNG imports Huge investments are required across the value chain Continued economic growth and prosperity are linked to getting our gas industry solution right We are off to a great start! 12

13 Come and join us for GASTECH 28 Bangkok, Thailand 13

14 See you again Thank you for your attention 14