What Does the History of CCS Tell Us About CDR Value and Implementation? Roger Aines Chief Scientist, Energy Program Lawrence Livermore National Lab

Transcription

1 What Does the History of CCS Tell Us About CDR Value and Implementation? Roger Aines Chief Scientist, Energy Program Lawrence Livermore National Lab

2 Photo C. Dan Miller, USGS Cascade Observatory 1977

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5 Kemper IGCC X

6 Thesis 1: we have to enable small business if we want gigatons of CDR in the future.

7 Petra Nova

8 Thesis 2: we have to provide value to get investors to move.

9 But CCS value is still low: cost reductions have not catalyzed implementation

10 Even though Federal research has driven down the cost on par with cost reductions in wind power US DOE 2017 Lazard 2017

11 CCS: What service is provided? Does not produce a product other than global health Is not limited by storage. Storage costs about $15/ton (Illinois costs) and has been widely demonstrated Is not widely accepted as an environmental benefit Widely discussed as an enabler to providing electricity as the service: let s look at that.

12 Unsubsidized kwh/$ How much power does an Ho investor get for a dollar? kwh per dollar, average Levelized Cost of Electricity (all-in costs) 10 Coal Nuclear Lazard LCOE analysis from

13 Unsubsidized kwh/$ How much power does an investor Ho get for a dollar? 15 Gas 10 Coal Nuclear Lazard LCOE analysis from

14 Unsubsidized kwh/$ How much power does an investor Ho get for a dollar? Wind Solar 15 Gas 10 Coal Nuclear Lazard LCOE analysis from

15 Data Check: Wind Power is Routinely Selling for 2 /kwhr In the US Central States 2 /kwhr

16 Unsubsidized kwh/$ kwhr/$ This is the electricity value proposition. Ho Renewables + gas win with investors. Wind Solar Gas Biomass Coal Nuclear Lazard LCOE analysis from

17 Unsubsidized kwh/$ kwhr/$ What will CCS do to these prices? Assume Ho 25-50% less product Wind Solar Gas Gas Biomass with CCS Coal Nuclear Biomass with CCS I surmise that electricity supply will not drive CCS/CDR Lazard LCOE analysis from

18 Exciting news from California: Direct Air Capture in the LCFS

19 California s Low Carbon Fuel System a National Means to Monetize Negative Carbon Caps the carbon intensity of motor fuels sold in California today 3% less than original, ultimately 30% reduction. Biofuels are used to reduce carbon intensity. Excess reductions are sold as credits. Applies to any fuel origin credits bought and sold privately. Today credits are selling for ~$95/ton CO 2

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21 The future looks like LCFS price will rise Today: 6,759,000 tons of deficit 9,060,000 tons of credit California Air Board

22 Support for CCS as a climate service: two dollar values. 45Q $10 EOR $20 saline today. 75 MT cap Proposed $35 EOR $50 Saline LCFS Today $96/ton proposed DAC standard in effect in approximately two years So we can hope for on the order of $150/ton a few years from now (when Cal LCFS CCS kicks in).

23 But if CDR is a climate service, we have to consider the competition. What are the alternatives?

24 CCS on biofuel is an easy target Last Updated 8/2/2017

25 CCS can easily reduce CI by 30 gco2/mj: 45 possible (Sean McCoy) Last Updated 8/2/2017

26 Case study: lifecycle impact of carbon capture and storage on ethanol carbon intensity can be large. A reduction to 46 gco2/mj would be worth $0.20/gal profit, including the cost of CCS. Gasoline 100 g CO2/MJ Sean McCoy LLNL

27 What about turning the CO 2 into products?

28 CO2U Roadmap Nov 1, 2017: Focus on Concrete CO2 consumed varies between 0.15% and 24% by weight of traditonal Portland cement used or 0.02% to 3% by weight of concrete 2017 possibility 10 MT to 1000 MtCO2 globally, and up to 1200 MtCO2 in Supply of CO2 is a major issue to vendors Regulatory complexity is a major barrier CO2 benefits include reduced energy use

29 A number of companies are pursuing CO 2 Utilization via mineralization several are commercial concrete vendors Stage of Development (TRL) Feedstock Brine, Seawater Minerals Alkaline Wastes CO 2 Direct Utilization: Cement and Construction Figure Courtesy of Sean Zhou, Columbia University

30 Issues for CO 2 utilizers 1. Supply. Needs to be local to the cement demand, and needs to be large (up to million ton scale). 2. Cost. $30/ton good, $100/ton too much to remain competitive (from Rick Riman, Solidia). 3. Regulatory support: not currently included in LCFS or 45Q. 4. Standards support many standards are formula prescriptive and not performance based.

31 Conclusions 1. Price: $100 to $150 will likely be supported soon, $200 not silly but competition will be tough. 2. Non-cost issues may be more important. Research agenda should include: Confidence in accountability for LCFS-like systems. Multiple benefits (air pollution, new products, new businesses). Creating a constituency of support outside of academia. Rock-solid demonstration that the benefits are actually accrued (LCA, economic studies).