Ohio River Navigation Investment Model (ORNIM) By Tim Smith Sept. 2007

Transcription

1 Ohio River Navigation Investment Model (ORNIM) By Tim Smith Sept. 2007

2 Evolution of Models Updated Tow Cost Model Flotilla Model Early Tow Cost Model Resource Requirements Model Resource Requirements Model Post Processor Program ORNIM Model Resource Requirements Post Equilibrium Model Processor Model Optim. Post Processor Program Program Marginal Economic Analysis Model WSDM LRM Mid 70 s Mid 80 s Mid 90 s

3 Typical ORNIM layout Random Closure Probabilities Reliability Estimates Repair Plans and Costs Lock Risk Module (LRM) Cargo Forecasts Construction Plans $ Budget Optimal Investment Module (Optimization) Waterway Supply and Demand Module (WSDM) Towboat/Barge Operations Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance Lock Operations River Network

4 Inside ORNIM Adt'<t!lce:ilain:euaoce Compocet.IM;tairDet<til Compocet.!Ri skdetti~ Haz.udFtl!le<io:l ltero.a6n Altero.a6veComponen; Altero.a6nCo ~; Altero.a6veCto;ure?l<tnR.'. :e Altero.a6 ecto;ure?l<tnr.'. :exrd Altero.a6'e0Etail Altero.a6nLoc); Altero.a6 eruc.xre: Bendi Jtme<iO:li Lbk; NerworkDeftci:io:l Porn PoruRe!leeting Riven Seeton Monmen!To!l:lage Calibration of Parameters (um V ~1Hl) ModeSel&tioo 6 Sh:ppir.g,Pia:. Co::nmo:iicyBilt{ES:I:n!Cil!)' Tran.sitTirueO.m'E.S Tran.sitTirueO.m,eDe.miptioo Tran.sitTirueO.m'eF.amily Tran.sitTirueO.m'eSel&tioo Tran.sitTirueO.m'e Tra:..slatioo Ctov.ueCost (updated) Coutl'ollables Calibration Co:r.poneutScbeduled.~epluemeut Erro:Mem,g.Mg lnt'e.sijueutp!anforkiisl'!re: ReportGroup ReportGroupXR.e: Ruo Rti!ILR.1 RU!IWSD~ RU!IOptim.izatfo!l 16 3.a;e.lkedau. Only ;,;; re<pe.s::ed Program Inputs, ',' Es-!lected Co;; Ex-Pected Sa bgi Es-!lected Uld: Ac'!iiry ~kco:umodi ;y Program Outputs,,,,,, ' ' ' ' ' loterface/repoj't I a hies Cbambeirypei Componen:Name Fo~c.u< int'e.soue!itp!ar. Mo"eiUeutSe:: Ner., otkven ior. Scbed.uledCloo: re! ype

5 Waterway Supply and Demand Module (WSDM) determines equilibrium waterway traffic levels under a given system configuration and forecast scenario for each year in the analysis period, taking into account scheduled lock closures. Step 1 Determine Shipping Plans WSDM calculates the towing costs and determines the cost-effective tow configurations to move the port-to-port tonnage on the waterway network honoring tow and operating characteristics. Step 2 Equilibrate Traffic Levels Ranks mvts by base rate savings adds mvts and Iterates until savings are stable with no negatives.

6 Lock Risk Module {LRM) CowponentRepair~tail CowponentRis.kD.Wl "' Adnntoed.bim euan" e Ha:zardl'uwotion ( LR' I J~ 1 / Equilibri= T onnage 7 Expect edc1ostu:o Exped ed Sun ivol... estimates the probability of each potential closure in each year of a component's life given equilibrium traffic levels, hazard functions and event trees. A hazard function identifies the probability of failure of a component in a specified time period, given that it has survived up to the selected time period. 1~k~ ~ % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ~ ~----~~~~--~--~~~~--~~ An event tree describes the levels of failure and the associated consequences and repairs. -- = <=~::_., - - "* ,..,. _ y-,....,... y _.,..._ ng.. Cloeur Q... - con,>ontnl,....,...,_ COOl ooya 08 0 """' "Y...,_Gale R 1 all.lll.ft)y,'6 2 $ Ewrrt T<ee,.,. 1 $ 1.575JXlO 4S 0...,..,. 2 $ 1.575JXlD 4S 0.,, ""' 1 $ S 0 R 1 al l.lll..re~ A.l'rlld NewGale& 60% 2 $ S 0 3 $5Jl50JlOO """"""" '"'... "'...,... ~':""'. ~ hbn RallltliiiYWIIIDe.i.."'foo':.:c::::~lfld.:~ l

7 Optimization Module Component ClosureTyp es Expected Closure Expected Survival InitialClosurePlan Scheduled Closure... systematically compares investments and selects the optimal investment strategy and summarizes the results. Movemen tsetselec.tion NetworkVersionSelec.tion TransitTimeCurves TransitTimeCurveDe.sc.ription Trans ittimecurvefamily TransitTimeCurveSele.ction TransitTimeCurveTranslation OPTI MI ZATION I C "'-ltema tive.selected Q losure.cost (updated) Lock."'-ctivity 6 RunSummary Component Replacement - Example Maj. Rehabs + Adv Maintenance and R eac1he Main[ ena nee Advanced Maintenance + ReactNe M ai nu~nance Reactive Maintenance W PC Is an op!imal milt of these different irno s!mon!s WOPC.. &.l.....,,.... t as.t cost Rep la cement Yc r Average Annual Replacement in that year

8 Generate System Statistics optimized project alternatives are input into a system investment plan re-run WSDM and LRM to get the effects of the selected alternatives on the system calculate system costs for the investment plan and output system statistics

9 Uncertainty ::!!: Utility Based High - Utility Based - NAAQS - Modified Clear Skies - Clear Skies - Historic Tonnage ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

10 Ohio River Main Stem System Investment Plan Example Output: Project Clear Skies Modified Clear Skies NAAQS Utility Based Utility Based High Belleville MR Cannelton Dashields New 600' Emsworth Hannibal MR MR MR MR MR Markland McAlpine Meldahl MR Montgomery New 1200' New Cumberland Newburgh MR Pike Island MR MR MR Racine RC Byrd Smithland W illow Island MR MR MR MR MR MR MR MR MR MR MR MR MR MR = Component Replacements MR = Main Chamber Rehabilitation New 600' or 1200' = New Single chamber built in place of the existing auxiliary. The old main is only used when the new chamber is down for maintenance.

11 Questions?