Air Quality Impacts of Three Carbon Policies: Na;onal vs Regional Implementa;on

Transcription

1 Air Quality Impacts of Three Carbon Policies: Na;onal vs Regional Implementa;on Tammy M. Thompson Sebas;an Rausch Rebecca K. Saari Noelle E. Selin Michelle Manion Leah Weiss Jason Rudokas

2 Background and Mo;va;on State of the science modeling framework developed as part of EPA STAR grant to evaluate changes in air quality and human health of poten;al US GHG policies Current challenge for states and regions is to iden;fy best strategies to meet targets for tradi;onal air pollutants while also making progress on rela;vely new goals for GHG emissions and greater use of renewable energy, all at lowest possible cost Synergis;c strategies can reduce overall costs Other strategies may introduce unintended trade- offs

3 A Coupled Framework for Policy Analysis US Economy USREP Model determines: Policy cost and benefits, economic impacts, distribu;onal effects, co- benefits Output by Regions and Sectors (Example below: Electricity by fuel) Regional Air Quality CAMx Model determines: AXainment of standards, ambient levels for exposure Pollu;on Concentra;on: Base Case and Difference due to Policy (Example: Ozone) Human Health BenMAP Model determines: Mortality, Morbidity, and Associated Costs Changes in Exposure Determine Health Response and Economic Valua;on Concentrations, human health impacts and costs are input to USREP (Rebecca Saari)

4 US Regional Energy Policy Model (USREP) Model Features: Mul;- region, mul;- sector recursive- dynamic general equilibrium model State- level economic (IMPLAN) and energy (EIA) data 5 energy and 5 non- energy sectors Heterogeneous consumers within regions Federal and state government taxes and transfers Regional emissions for Kyoto greenhouse gases

5 U.S. Regional Energy Policy Economic Model: 17 Sectors and 12 Regions Electric Energy Intensive Industry Other Industry Coal Oil Gas Private Transporta8on Commercial Transporta8on Agriculture Services Crude Oil Petroleum Coal Gas

6 Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) Model the chemical and physical processes that impact pollu;on produc;on, movement and destruc;on in the atmosphere Year- long modeling episode was developed by the U.S. EPA for the purpose of policy analyses Basecase 2012 emissions inventories The meteorological inputs were developed by the U.S.EPA using the Pennsylvania State University/ Na;onal Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and represent condi;ons as they occurred in km Modeling Domain Modeling at 36 km Domain as good as 12 km at predic;ng health outcomes as determined by Thompson, T.M. and Selin N.E., ACP

7 U.S. Carbon Policy Scenarios Apply the following three policy scenarios: 1. Clean Energy Standard (Cap Energy Sector) 2. Transporta8on Carbon Cap (Cap Transport Sector) 3. Cap and Trade (Cap All Sectors) To the US as a whole (Na;onal Policy) To the Northeast States (Regional Policy) All Three Policy Scenarios will be evaluated against a Business As Usual (No Policy) Scenario Total Carbon Reduc;on in all three Regional Scenarios is constant (~500 Million Tons cumula;ve to 2030) and designed to match the Carbon reduc;on that occurs in the Northeast states as a result of the Na;onal Cap and Trade Scenario

8 Na;onal Clean Energy Standard Assumes 80% clean energy in 2035 and a linear progression star;ng at 42% in % "Clean" Renewables 100% Nuclear 100% Natural Gas with CCS 95% Coal with CCS 90% Natural Gas Combined Cycle 50% Consistent with Obama s State of the Union Address in Million metric tons reduc;on by % reduc;on in carbon from electricity sector

9 Transporta;on Carbon Cap 14% (820 Million metric tons) reduc;on in 2030 Cap applied to private and commercial fleets 40% reduc;on in carbon from transporta;on sector More stringent than CAFÉ standards Likely to be less cost effec;ve than CES

10 Cap and Trade 14% (820 Million metric tons) reduc;on in 2030 Less stringent than Waxman- Markey Cap applied to all sectors of the US Economy Likely to be more cost effec;ve than CES

11 MODELLING RESULTS

12 6400 CO2 Emissions: Na8onal Total Regional Policies By Defini8on Lead to Smaller Na8onal CO2 Reduc8ons Million Tons CO Business As Usual Regional Cap and Trade Regional Transporta;on Cap All Na;onal Scenarios Regional Clean Energy Standard

13 Million Tons Annual (Criteria) Billion Tons Annual (CO2) Emissions of all Species Decrease in All Na8onal Policies 4.8 M 8.0 M Northeast Other US Northeast Other US Northeast Other US Clean Energy Standard Transporta;on Scenario Cap and Trade Na;onal NOx CO SO2 VOC NH3 CO2

14 Million Tons Annual (Criteria) Billion Tons Annual (CO2) Some Emissions show Increases in Areas Outside of Capped Region in Regional Policies 4.2 M Northeast Other US Northeast Other US Northeast Other US Clean Energy Standard Transporta;on Scenario Cap and Trade Regional NOx CO SO2 VOC NH3 CO2

15 Benefits are More Widespread in Na;onal Policy with Areas of Ozone Dis- benefit in Regional Policy Clean Energy Standard Na;onal Regional Ozone PM2.5

16 Benefits are More Widespread in Na;onal Policy with Areas of PM & Ozone Dis- benefit in Regional Policy Transporta;on Scenario Na;onal Regional Ozone PM2.5

17 Benefits are More Widespread in Na;onal Policy Areas of Ozone Dis- benefit in Regional Policy Cap and Trade Na;onal Regional Ozone PM2.5

18 Deaths Avoided: Most recent Federal AQ Policy shows similar benefits as Na;onal Carbon Policies with respect to PM 2.5, but under- performs with respect to Ozone Ozone PM Annual Deaths Avoided Annual Deaths Avoided CSAPR Clean Energy Standard Bell et al Transporta;on Cap Cap and Trade 0 CSAPR Clean Energy Standard Transporta;on Cap Laden et al Cap and Trade

19 $300 $250 Costs and Human Health Benefits (with Health Confidence Interval) of three US Carbon Policies $860 B $200 $150 Billioin US $100 $50 $- $(50) Northeast Other Northeast Other Northeast Other Northeast Other Northeast Other Northeast Other Clean Energy Standard Transporta;on Scenario Cap and Trade Clean Energy Standard Transporta;on Scenario Cap and Trade Na;onal *Preliminary results not yet submitted. Please do not copy or distribute Regional

20 Policy Implica;ons Policy Covering all sectors (Cap and Trade) provides highest benefit to cost ra;o No CO2 leakage (No increase in CO2 emissions outside of capped region) CAT policy pays for itself: Human health benefits are larger than policy costs in all scenarios Regional CES and TRN Policies are less cost effec;ve and result in smaller Na;onal carbon reduc;ons Human health benefits in the Northeast are similar for all Regional policies but some health dis- benefits occur in areas not capped

21 Next Steps/Future Analyses Using exis;ng modeling framework: Sensi;vity analysis to determine influence of health impacts and policy costs to: Economic assump;ons: Technology Costs, economic baseline Policy Stringency Emissions inventories Concentra;on- response func;ons Evalua;on of further policy scenarios Further methodological and framework development: Endogenous treatment of health costs in economic model Incorpora;on of technology op;ons for costs and emissions Uncertainty analysis of atmospheric chemical modeling

22 Ques;ons?