Globalna gonila sprememb na energetskih trgih

Transcription

1 Globalna gonila sprememb na energetskih trgih Je energetski trg že zrel za pametne energetske storitve oziroma kako naj se uporabniki pametno obnašajo na njem? Dnevi Energetikov / Portorož, 16. april 2014 Tomaž Orešič 1

2 Forces of Change in Energy Markets Right Now

3 A World leading centre for expertise in Utility Customer Psychology, Behaviour and Smart Energy Demand in Energy Markets

4 Selected Trends in Developed Energy Markets? Generation & Wholesale Distribution Customer Retail Increasing Distributed Generation due to incentives Unbundling / Cost Reflective Prices Grid Strengthening for Intermittency / Peaks / LV pressures Smart Grid Increasing Prices Increasing Price Significance Need for Energy Savings Payment Defaults Increased Switching Customer Backlash Increasing Prices Unbundling / Cost Reflective Prices Increasing Competition Increasing Obligations Increasing Margins Increasing Intermittency Excess Capacity DSM / Demand Response Reduced Energy Demand (EE, DR, etc.) Greater Customer Focus Reducing Value of Traditional Generation except Peaking Generation Greater DG and Self- Sufficiency Public (political) Resistance to Further Price Rises Solutions for Reduced Energy Costs Reduced Revenue / ROC Increased Risk Avoided Central Generation Investment DG becomes more competitive for customers Price Rises (unregulated prices) Emergence of New Entrant Business Models Failure of Traditional Utility Business Models 2014 VaasaETT

5 Increasing Distributed Generation DG Growth In Denmark

6 Electricity demand Peak versus average demand growth Demand has decreased yet becoming peakier Solar PV Penetration (MW Installed) Solar PV penetration Decentralised generation Solar hot water Energy efficiency Commercial and industrial load Source(s): Energy Networks Association, Consultation Paper submission, Economic regulation of networks Rule change. Data sourced from AEMO 2011 ESOO. AEMO 2012, Clean energy Australia report 2011

7 Reducing Value of Traditional Generation Utilities around the world are struggling to cope Source: FT.com

8 Global Smart Grid Impact Research Highlights 8

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10 GLOBAL SMART GRID IMPACT PROJECT The first worldwide research identifying the benefits of smart grid in practice 200 projects identified. < 1000 to >1 million customers per project 30 visionary projects selected, representing 24million customers $ 9.5bn Invested 10

11 GLOBAL SMART GRID IMPACT PROJECT Customer Benefits Savings per customer ranging from $306 to $504 per year 11

12 Embracing Dynamic Prices & Demand Response In Norway Spot-tied Contracts are 55.4% of all residential electricity contracts

13 Peak Clipping (%) Embracing Dynamic Prices & Automation 35 % 30 % 31 % Source: VaasaETT % 20 % 20 % 15 % 16 % 12 % 16 % 12 % 10 % 9 % 5 % 5 % 0 % Critical Peak Pricing Critical Peak Rebate Time-Of-Use Real-Time-Pricing With automation Without automation

14 Cool Solutions

15 The Power of Feedback Estimated Impact of In Home Displays in Great Britain 2.8bn for electricity 3.3bn for gas 6bn+ savings overall C0 2 savings of 11.7m tonnes for electricity: 8.2% (x 3 years) of annual UK target

16 The Power of Feedback Insights, Not Data Source: Opower 2013 Exceptionally High Customer Participation

17 Ready made Solutions

18 Reducing Value of Business Models Utilities around the world are struggling to cope

19 Reducing Value of Traditional Networks Utilities around the world are struggling to cope

20 Reducing Value of Traditional Networks Incumbent Utilities haven t reacted to the Transition

21 Integrating the Value Electric Vehicles AusGrid Electric Vehicle Management & Trading Storage Generation Micro CHP in South Korea

22 Bringing Capacity into the Equation Capacity Aggregators are increasing Exponentially Supported by increasing amount of financing and emergence of capacity markets Source: SEDC

23 The energy future is Nearly Here

24 Hvala za pozornost Tomaž Orešič Direktor za poslovni razvoj