Residential Network. Pathways to Low Carbon Heat. Ian Orme Saryu Vatal. Making buildings better

Transcription

1 Residential Network Pathways to Low Carbon Heat Ian Orme Saryu Vatal 1

2 Introduction Context An overview of the pathways Energy efficiency Gas Electricity District heating Conclusions 2

3 Introduction 3

4 Introduction Reproduced from Pathways for Heat: Low Carbon Heat for Buildings 4

5 Introduction Heat in Buildings Reproduced from Pathways for Heat: Low Carbon Heat for Buildings 5

6 Heat Output Today District heat Other Electricity Gas 6

7 Today Heat Output in 2050 DECC Other Efficiency District heat Gas Electricity 7

8 Heat Output in CCC Today District heat Other Efficiency DECC Electricity Gas 8

9 Heat Output in 2050 CCC DH Today Other Efficiency DECC District heat Gas Electricity 9

10 Today Heat Output in NG District heat Other Efficiency Gas DECC Electricity 10

11 Heat Output in ETI Today Other Efficiency Gas District heat DECC Electricity 11

12 Heat Output in UKERC Today Other District heat Efficiency DECC Electricity Gas 12

13 Heat Output in 2050 Delta EE Today Other District heat Efficiency DECC Electricity Gas 13

14 Heat Pathways All pathways achieve the 80% reduction on 1990 levels All but the DeltaEE pathway consider the whole energy systems DeltaEE produced a pathway that models residential heating The pathways are not trying to predict the future, simply to provide guidance on the least cost solutions The figures represent core pathways that are often the aggregate of many different scenarios modelled The findings allow government and industry to better understand where the knowledge gaps are, and where investment is needed 14

15 Energy Efficiency 15

16 Energy Efficiency DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE Energy saved through retrofitting efficiency measures varies considerably across the pathways 16

17 Energy Efficiency DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE Energy saved through retrofitting efficiency measures varies considerably across the pathways New buildings are assumed to be built to high standards of thermal efficiency across all the pathways 17

18 Energy Efficiency DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE Energy saved through retrofitting efficiency measures varies considerably across the pathways New buildings are assumed to be built to high standards of thermal efficiency across all the pathways The thermal performance of buildings using heat pumps is key Smart meters and building controls will provide an opportunity to gather more evidence on the impacts of efficiency improvements at scale 18

19 Gas 19

20 Gas DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE All the pathways show a significant reduction in the use of gas to heat buildings Pathways differ in their assumptions over the amount of gas that continues to be used Uncertainty over how difficult and expensive it is to make deeper emissions cuts, and the cheapest way to meet peak demands Hybrid gas/electric systems could be a useful transitional technology 20

21 Gas DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE Heat demand for cooking is relatively small today, but could have a significant impact on the decarbonisation strategy 21

22 Gas DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE Some pathways utilise the gas networks post 2050 as a method for meeting peak demand, but how much of the network and where is poorly understood DeltaEE assume biomethane could be used to lower the carbon intensity of gas Hydrogen heat technologies are poorly represented in the pathways 22

23 Electricity 23

24 Electricity DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE Across all the pathways electricity provides at least 30% of heat for buildings and up to 75% in some scenarios Predominately through the use of heat pumps Resistive electric heating could play a role in highly energy efficient buildings, and storage heating could play a role in managing demand The role of heat pumps is sensitive to the thermal efficiency of the building stock; compatibility with existing heating systems; the carbon intensity of electricity and the costs of expanding the network 24

25 Electricity DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE Availability of space in existing homes for a hot water tank may be a constraint on the wider deployment of heat pumps Retrofit for the Future projects identified some of these challenges More recent scenarios and analyses have tried to model the costs of expanding the electricity capacity and transmission systems. A high cost option 25

26 District Heat 26

27 District Heat DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE District heat is still something of a missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle Most pathway analyses ignore the geography of the energy system critical for understanding the potential UK suffering from a limited supply chain and experience at connecting private consumers to heat networks District heating could meet up to 40% of the heat output needs, and improve the mix of low carbon fuels 27

28 Conclusions 28

29 Conclusions DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE The pathway analyses are complex pieces of work and their assumptions need to be more transparent to aid in decision making A better evidence base is needed to help inform the pathways This includes scaling up the deployment of some of the suggested solutions, so that a better understanding of their potential contribution can be gained 29

30 Conclusions DECC CCC NG ETI UKERC DEE 2030 is only 15 years away, the next decade will be crucial to working out the solutions for low carbon heat 30

31 Residential Network Pathways to Low Carbon Heat Ian Orme Saryu Vatal 31