Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

Transcription

1 Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making Roger S Pulwarty 1 Katy Hill 2 Roger S. Pulwarty Katy Hill, Ed Harrison 1 (C. Richter, A. Simmons, Florin Vadu and many others) 1 NOAA; 2 GCOS/GOOS

2 Sovereign liquidity idit gap: near-term benefits 1 DAY 30 DAYS SHORT-TERM 1 SEASON 3 10 YEAR YEAR INTERANNUAL S S 30 YEAR S 100 YEAR S DECADE-TO-CENTURY Ocean surface upper full Atmospheric chemistry Ice sheets Land surface Marine Ecosystems 2

3 The current availability and quality of climate observations and impacts data to support adaptation Appear inadequate for large parts of the globe BAU Potential degradation of array densities over the next few years (T. Suga, yesterday) Ocean Global coverage Satellites Weather and Climate Atmospheric Global and domestic Capacity Building WMO/IOC JCOMM Capacity Building Workshops SERVIR Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

4 Image, NRC, 2012 GCOS Observations to Support Adaptation (2013, 2015)

5 Monitoring for extremes in the context of change: Risks to investments capitals (World Bank, 2012; Hallegatte 2012) Potential benefits from upgrading hydro-meteorological information and early warning capacity in all developing countries: Between 300 million and 2 billion USD per year of avoided asset losses due to natural hazards Between 3 and 30 billion USD per year of additional economic benefits. Benefit-cost ratios between 4 and 35 with co-benefits

6 The length of time required to detect and attribute a climate trend caused by human activities is determined by: Natural variability The magnitude of human driven climate change The accuracy of the observing and modeling systems The year in which we become 90% certain depends d on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their temporal and spatial completeness The economic value of advanced climate observing systems is dramatically larger than their cost (Wielicki, Cooke et al, 2013) We lack a comprehensive climate observing system capable of testing climate predictions with sufficient accuracy or completeness

7 Global Framework for Climate Services: All levels of observational efforts are needed to support services and adaptation 7

8 GCOS vs Shakespeare GCOS can not be all things to all people

9 Next steps: develop specific case studies Workshops reinforced the need for specific issuebased case studies to provide a framework for improving delivery of fit for purpose observations to inform adaptation decision making. Develop studies in different regions (desk top study, regional workshops) Demonstrate observations as a basis/foundation for investments in sound, evidence based decision making.

10 Sea Level Variability and Change Requested by country reps/gcos adaptation reports (2013; 2015) Population exposed in 2050 (millions) relative to present Gaps identified included: Gaps identified included: insufficient tide gauge data and limited accessibility of the data that do exist; inability to capture current fast changes, which would require targeted networks of sensors; and underutilization of current observations systems, which limits communities ability to demonstrate how data is used in adaptation and its value for improving services therein

11 Bring together decision makers across a range of issues: Short term: coastal inundation, storm surge Longer term: town and city planning, coastal zoning, ecosystem management, tourism A range of settings Small Island States, Coastal Mega Cities Temperate, Tropical settings Bring together observations and modelling tools Research community (WCRP Sea Level Grand Challenge) Satellite (Altimetry) In situ (tide gauges (GLOSS), Dart moorings) Supporting information on ocean circulation, ice melt, ocean properties. Fit for purpose Sea level modelling and forecasting tools GODAE OceanView, JCOMM Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecasting

12 GFCS 2015 Three year Operational and Resource Plan

13 Developing information systems p g integrated g y Example: Sea level change impacts in coastal areas Observe & Monitor Spatial Analysis & Visualization Management & Decision Making Applied Research Education & Outreach Models & Predictions Information Development and Communication

14 Tracking pre-conditions to critical transitions Definition of the core set of data, data characteristics, and information technologies needed to maintain the minimum i acceptable level l of stewardship in the management of resources and infrastructure Place multiple indicators within a statistically consistent triggering framework- before a critical thresholds are met

15 Outcomes from prototypes a framework Demonstration of the information value chain (i.e. value(s) proposition) optimizing ii i i i the use existing i observations as a basis Strengthen the chain of information flow: Linking up to GCOS Delivering on modelling/forecast requirements Understand how new information relates to what is already known Improving delivery of data, information and forecasts (Decision making requirements and entry points) With whom do we need to engage? (GCOS, WCRP, GFCS, Development agencies, Private sector, others) Innovation Monitoring and Forecasting Evaluation Who wants to help? Learning

16 NCEI Coordination 16

17 Thanks

18 Backups

19 Is the contribution of geospatial information to innovation and competitiveness quantifiable and how would it be done? Economics group looked at overall priorities (GEO,NCAR, June 2012) Six people had $2 each, and voted on where to spend his/her money. Result: Open Access to Data $$; Other Non-Financial Measures of Value $; Interdisciplinary Approaches $$$$; Prototype Case Studies $$$$$

20 Oscar Selfie Worth as Much as $1 Billion Oscar photo of host DeGeneres with Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Julia Roberts, Brad Pitt, Meryl Streep, Kevin Spacey and others

21 Kellogg Walmart Unilever Monsanto Campbell J&J Pepsi Co World's highest net worth selfie? $1 trillion in one shot Walmart's Sustainability Product Expo

22 What are/ought to be the roles of the IAV (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) research community, development programmes, and public and private climate services in helping to secure and sustain coordinated global climate observational networks? Challenge Develop integrated observation and modeling systems that address the needs of vulnerable sectors, resources, and investment strategies. Major challenges designing observational systems, defining ECVs, conducting and communication analyses that t characterize changing rates and transitions Understand how new information relates to what is already known and how often should adaptation decisions be reconsidered (i.e. informing smart vs. best practices )

23 Key challenges have been identified through widespread assessments with key communities Accessibility: many countries do not have climate services, and all countries have scope to improve access to such services. Capacity: many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and manage climate related risks and opportunities. Data: the current availability and quality of climate observations and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe. Partnerships: interactions i between climate service users and providers are not always well developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed. Quality: operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications sciences, and the spatial and temporal resolution of information is often insufficient to match user requirements. q