Lamu Coal Plant (Presentation at the Public Forum, 14 July 2017) By Hindpal S. Jabbal (Former Chairman, ERC)

Transcription

1 Lamu Coal Plant (Presentation at the Public Forum, 14 July 2017) By Hindpal S. Jabbal (Former Chairman, ERC)

2 CONTENTS Past Performance Least Cost Planning Basic Rules Demand Forecasting Maximum Size of a Single Unit Optimum Generation Mix Comparative Costs Location of the Plant Proposed Plan ( ) by HSJ Proposed Plan ( ) by Lahmeyer Electricity Tariff

3 Past Performance for Supply and Demand Situation ( )

4 Actual Peak Demand (MW) & Installed Capacity FYE EM-P GT/Others 1500 STEAM MSD BIO/OTHERS 1000 KEN. HYDRO UEB 500 GEO PEAK DEMAND 0 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 BASE LOAD CAP. With 20% RES 3YR Cr. Drought 2YR Drought

5 Actual Energy Demand & Available Energy (GWh) FYE LF 0.8 Ken HYDRO (Actual) UEB 0.9LF Energy Demand BASE LOAD 70% WITH DRY YR RES /99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 3YR Cr. Drought 2YR Drought

6 Technical & Non-technical Losses at Diff. Voltage Levels (FY 2015/16) Voltage Levels Losses % Av. No. of Fault/Incident Per Month TRANSMISSION 220 kv 1.5 < SUB-TRANS. 66,132 kv 2.0 < MV DISTN. 11,33 kv Av. Outage Time (hrs) DISTN. TXs. 11/33/0.415 kv * LV LINES 415V Tech. Losses Non-Tech. Losses TOTAL Losses 19.0% 24, * About 100 distn. transformers are vandalized every month

7 Least Cost Power Dev. Planning (LCPDP)

8 Basic Rules that govern Least Cost Planning Load forecasting must be realistically prepared based on historical trends and future economic growth. Peak demand (in MW) must be met with effective installed capacity and about 20% reserve margin. (10% planned outage, 5% forced outage and 5% spinning reserve) Annual Energy demand (in GWh) must be met with minimum hydro energy available in a critical drought year, with regulated reservoir regime, and adequate non-hydro plant to meet the balance. For security of supply the largest single machine should be about 5% of peak demand, and imports should not exceed 20%. Generation mix and siting of plant must be based on least cost criteria, and projects must be completed on a timely basis.

9 Load Growth % PAST LOAD FORECASTING % % 9.0% yr Sev. 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 FY 8.5% 7.0% 6.2% MOE (5,000+MW) MOE (Vision 2030) LAHMEYER HSJ (With Flagship) HSJ (Base Load)

10 FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING MW Projected Load Growth ( ) by HSJ & MOE 15.0% % 8.5% 7.0% 6.0% MOE, 5000+MW MOE (2011) "V 2030 With Flagship Proj. Basic at 7.0% grth. 0 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 FY

11 COMPARATIVE DEMAND PROJECTIONS AND ACTUALS FYE ( ) PROJECTIONS BY MOE (MARCH 2010) PROJECTIONS BY HSJ (JUNE 2010) ACTUALS FY EFF INST CAP MW SYS PEAK MW RES CAP % LOAD GR % GDP GR % EFF INST CAP MW SYS PEAK MW RES CAP % LOAD GR % GDP GR % EFF INST CAP MW SYS PEAK MW RES CAP % LOAD GR % GDP GR % 09/10 1,482 1, ,380 1, ,482 1, /11 1,627 1, ,570 1, ,479 1, /12 1,670 1, ,610 1, ,636 1, /13 2,087 1, ,840 1, ,652 1, /14 2,527 1, ,980 1, ,805 1, /15 2,767 2, ,060 1, ,228 1, /16 3,007 2, ,130 1, ,270 1, /17 3,287 2, ,310 1, ,250 1, AV.GR % /18 3,787 3, ,560 2, ,400 1, /19 4,285 3, ,700 2, ,400 1, /20 4,905 3, ,850 2, ,800 2,

12 FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING Projected Peak and Energy Demand FYE /16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 Basic Demand(MW) at 7.0% growth VISION "2030 FL/ Sh Projects ICT Cities Lamu Port/Lapset Railways Mining Industries Other Industry Total Flagship Projects Total Demand (MW) Ann. (GWh) Av. Annual Load Growth = 8.5%

13 Maximum allowable single unit capacity (from Tanzania Master Plan)

14 Daily % Power Output (Geo, Wind, Hydro and Solar)

15 SIMPLIFIED DAILY LOAD & ANN. LOAD DURATION CURVES

16 COMPARATIVE COSTS OF DIFFERENT GENERATION PLANT (Without Transmission Line and Other Costs) Installed cap. MW Cost/kW USD/kW Ann.Cap costs USD/kW/yr Available Cap.Factor Cap costs at available CF (UScts/kWh) Var. costs fuel/steam (UScts/kWh) ETHIOPIA Hydro (Curr) 400 2, ETHIOPIA Hydro (Fut.) 800 2, GEOTHERMAL (Conv.) 2x70 2, GEOTHERMAL (WH) 14x5 1, WIND (Turkana) 300 2, (Eff.150) WIND (Others) 100 2, (Eff.50) BIOMASS(MATHENGE) 30 2, LAMU COAL- Amu (As tendered) 3x350 1, MSD (Med.Sp.DIESEL) 6x12 1, Coal prices assumed by Amu Power (in 2014) were USD50/tonne 2 Current landed market price for coal stands at USD99/tonne based on prices quoted to ARM Total Energy Costs (UScts/kWh) LAMU COAL- Amu 2x150 2, (Re-negotiated) SOLAR PV (Curr) 40 1, With hydro capacity CCGT (LNG) 2X

17 Proposed Plan by HSJ ( )

18 PEAK DEMAND & EFFECTIVE INSTALLED CAP - MW Projected Peak Demand & Installed Capacity (MW) by HSJ FYE ( ) GT/LNG MSD Eth Hyd Ken Hyd Bio/others Wind (Eff.) Geo PEAK DEMAND BASE LOAD CAP. with 20% Res 0 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 FY

19 ENERGY DEMAND & AVAILABILITY - GWh Projected Energy Demand & Availability (GWh) by HSJ FYE ( ) GT/LNG MSD Eth Hyd Ken Hyd Bio/others Wind (Eff.) Geo ENERGY DEMAND BASE LOAD, 70% WITH DRY YR RES. 0 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 FY

20 % Load Growth EFFECTIVE INSTALLED CAP & DEMAND (Mw) FYE : MSD & OTHERS GT (KER/LNG) COAL CCGT (LNG) ETH FUTURE ETH HYD. (U-C) KENYA GRAND FALLS KENYA HYD. (EXST) WIND (EFF. 50%) GEO PEAK LOAD BASE LOAD PEAK + RES 0 15/16 20/21 25/26 30/31 35/36 40/41

21 80000 AVAILABLE ENERGY AND ANNUAL DEMAND (GWh) FYE : GT (KER/LNG) (0.6cf) MSD & OTHERS (0.8) COAL (0.8cf) CCGT (0.8cf) SOLAR (0.2cf) ETH FUTURE (0.35cf) ETH HYD. (U-C 0.6) KENYA GRAND FALLS (0.28cf) KENYA HYD. (EXST 0.5) WIND (AVG 0.9 of EFF CAP) GEO (0.8cf) ANNUAL DEMAND (GWh) /16 20/21 25/26 30/31 35/36 40/41

22 Proposed Plan by Lahmeyer ( )

23 Lahmeyer Master Plan ( ) Peak Demand in MW

24 Lahmeyer Master Plan ( ) Energy Demand in GWh

25 POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL TECHNICAL ENVIRONMENT LEGAL PESTEL ANALYSIS by Lahmeyer TYPE OF PLANT ETHIOPIA I/C GEOTHERMAL WIND HIGH GR. FALLS LNG Wajir VERY GOOD + GOOD 0 SATISFACTORY - SUFFICIENT - - INSUFFICIENT COAL

26 25000 MOE PROPOSED LEAST COST PLAN ( ) INSTALLED CAPACITY & PEAK DEMAND (MW) 14% Load Growth GT (LNG) MSD & OTHERS COAL ETH. HYDRO KEN. HYDRO WIND EFF. GEO NUCLEAR EFF INS. CAPACITY PEAK DEMAND BASE LOAD 0 15/16 20/21 25/26 30/31 FYE

27 % Load Growth MOE PROPOSED LEAST COST PLAN ( ) AVAILABLE ENERGY & ANNUAL DEMAND (GWh) GT (LNG) MSD & OTHERS COAL ETH. HYDRO KEN. HYDRO WIND EFF. GEO NUCLEAR TOTAL AVAIL ENERGY (GWh) ANN. ENERGY DEMAND (GWh) /16 20/21 25/26 30/31 FYE

28 CONCLUSIONS Lamu coal plant 3 x 350MW capacity costing in the region of 2 Billion with Capacity charges of US$ 370 million per annum cannot be justified for the following reasons: 1. Inadequate demand to absorb 1000MW at base load. Hence the plant will remain idle for most of the time attracting capacity charges of US$370 million per annum. 2. The size of each machine must not be more than MW. 3. Very high per unit cost compared to all other options like Geothermal, Wind and Hydro Imported from Ethiopia. 4. Importation of coal from South Africa and not developing coal in Kitui. 5. Very high transmission line costs to evacuate power from Lamu to Nairobi.

29 ELECTRICITY TARIFF

30 Actual Electricity Tariff in Ksh/kWh FY Gen. Fixed Fuel Tr. & Distr Total Fin Tariff Est. Gov. Subsidy Total Econ. Tariff

31 Household Income Distribution & Electricity Usage in Kenya (FY: ) INCOME CLASS H/H INCOME KES/mth % ELECT. CONSN kwh/mth % AV. TARIFF. KES/ kwh AV. BILL KES/Mth. AV. Bill as % of H/H. INCOME BELOW POVERTY (<20K) 10K 35 % NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL LOWER MIDDLE (20-60K) 40K 45 % (0-50) % % MIDDLE (60-200K) 130K 15 % (50-200) % 15 1, % UPPER MIDDLE ( K) 400K 4.5 % ( ) % 17 7, % WEALTHY (>600K) 1.0Mill 0.5 % (>1000) % 20 30, % AVERAGE 60K 100% 52kWh 100% , %

32 Electricity Usage and % Cost for Diff. Types of Consumers Type of Consumer %age of Total Elec Consn Cost as % of Income/Turnover Domestic 24% 1-3% Small Commercial 17% 2 3% Large Commercial 24% 3 4% Industry (raw mat. imported) Industry (local raw material) 20% 2 6% 10% 20-25% Rural Electrification 5% 3 4% Total 100% Wtd AV. 4.0%

33 Import Content of Electricity Cost 2015/16 Cost in Ksh/kWh Import Content % Gen. Capacity Cost % Gen. Fuel Cost % T & D Cost % Total Cost 14.7 Wtd. Av. 71%