Development of Emission Inventories for Anthropogenic Sources in East and South Asia. Toshimasa Ohara (Frontier Research System for Global Change)

Transcription

1 Development of Emission Inventories for Anthropogenic Sources in East and South Asia Toshimasa Ohara (Frontier Research System for Global Change)

2 Sources of airborne pollution in Asia are many: home cooking, power generation, industry, traffic, and biomass burning

3 Important species in the Asian atmosphere and their origin Black carbon (residential fuel combustion, diesel vehicles) SO 2 and sulfate aerosol (coal combustion) CO 2, CH 4, and other greenhouse gases (fossil fuels, agriculture) NO x, nitrate aerosol, and other nitrogen compounds (vehicles) Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) (all kinds) Ozone (formed from NO x and NMVOC) Ammonia (agriculture mainly) Mineral dust (wind-blown from arid and semi-arid regions) Small particles like BC, OC, and SO 4 are implicated in regional- and continental-scale problems and global warming. Tropospheric ozone is also now recognized as an important greenhouse gas.

4 Purpose of emission inventory project Develop emission inventories of key species in order to understand the role of trace constituents in the atmosphere (1) Development of an original database of emissions Greenhouse gases and trace atmospheric constituents Anthropogenic and natural sources Eastern part of the Eurasian continent 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg grid (2) Refining the 1 deg x 1 deg emission inventories developed in previous global projects (EDGAR and GEIA)

5 Target in Phase (FY2000 to 2002) Region East and South Asia (60 o E o E, 10 o S -55 o N) Base year 1995 and 2000 Sources Anthropogenic (and natural) Grid 0.5 deg 0.5 deg Source category species (Note) : working now : not yet Region

6 Study components in progress Emissions from fuel combustion activities (Collaboration with Mr. Kurokawa of Fujitsu FIP Corp.) NMVOC from anthropogenic sources (Collaboration with Dr. Streets of Argonne National Lab.) GHG from livestock ( Ms. Yamaji => poster presentation) GHG from rice field ( Dr. Yan => poster presentation)

7 Emissions from fuel combustion activities (1) introduction Species SO 2, NO x, CO, NH 3, CH 4, N 2 O, Black Carbon, CO 2 Region China (30 regions), India (20 regions), Other Asian countries (26 countries) Fuels Sectors Four major fuels (Coal, Oil, Gases, and Other Solids), further split into 36 types of fuel Four major sectors (Power Plants, Industry, Transport, Others), further split into 20 categories

8 IEA Energy Balances UN Energy Statistics Bio-fuel, China, India Fuel Consumption Matrix for Area Sources [Each country and region] RAINS ASIA (2) Framework Industrial Activity Data for China from Tsinghua Univ. ( Energy, S-contents, LPS, etc. ) EDGAR 1990 Aviation International Navi. Emissions from Japan (JEA) Fuel Consumption of each LPS 250LPS Stationary Sources Road Transport Energy Trend EF, S-contents EF, S-contents EF, Fuel economy Process Emission Factor Revised EDGAR 1995 Emissions from Area Sources [Each country and region] Emissions from LPS Population Data [2.5 min., Each country and region] Position of LPS 0.5 o 0.5 gridded emission data

9 (3) Methodology Stationary sources SO 2 E = A NCV S (1-SR) SR) (1-R) Other Species (and SO 2 from some kinds of fuel) E = A EF (1-R) E Emissions [t] A Energy consumption [PJ] NCV Net Calorific Value [t/pj] S Sulfur content of fuel [%/100] SR Sulfur Retention in ash [%/100] R Removal efficiency [%/100] EF Emission Factor [t Species/PJ] for each fuel type and economic sector

10 Road transport Fuel Consumption Total Consumption of Gasoline in Road Transport Total Consumption of Diesel in Road Transport Traffic Volume for Each Vehicle Type [km/yr] Fuel Economy for Each Vehicle Type [km/l] Fuel Consumption of Each Gasoline Type Vehicle Fuel Consumption of Each Diesel Type Vehicle Total Consumption of LPG in Road Transport Fuel Consumption of LPG Vehicles E E = A EF FE SG NCVNCV E A EF FE SG NCV Emissions [t] Energy Consumption [PJ] Emission Factor [t Species/km] Fuel Economy [km/l] Specific Gravity [kg/l] Net Calorific Value [PJ/kg] for Each Fuel Type and Vehicle Type

11 Sulfur contents of fuels Fuel Type : Coal and Oil Fuel Type : Gas, Oil, and Solid Sulfur-contents of Fuels [ = Weight(S) / Weight(fuel) ] RAINS ASIA Database Tsinghua Univ. Data for China Kato and Akimoto [1992] for India (Only for HC and BC) Emission Factors [ = Weight(S) / Fuel-consumption ] Garg et al. [2001] AP-42 [1996] Kato and Akimoto [1992] Reduction of S-contents of Fuels Streets et al. [2000] for Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand

12 Emission factors Sources ; Kato and Akimoto [1992] EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook 2 nd Edition [1999] AP-42 [1996] IPCC Revised Guideline [1996] Data from Tsinghua University for Road Transport Some articles Parameters ; Economic sector (Sub-sector level) Detailed fuel type Combustion facilities (Boiler type, furnace type etc.) Countries and regions

13 4 Results Unit: Kt / year COUNTRY SO2 (%) NOx (%) CO (%) BC (%) CO2 (%) JAPAN , , ,064, BANGLADESH , ,670 0 BRUNEI ,174 0 CHINA 27, , , , ,176, INDIA 5, , , , INDONESIA , , ,654 3 NORTHKOREA , ,022 1 SOUTHKOREA 1, , , ,508 6 MALAYSIA , ,338 1 MYANMAR , ,968 0 NEPAL , ,758 0 PAKISTAN , ,805 1 PHILIPPINES , ,022 1 SINGAPORE , ,079 1 SRILANKA , ,090 0 TAIWAN , ,793 3 THAILAND 1, , ,293 2 VIETNAM , ,258 0 AFGHANISTAN MACAU ,294 0 MALDIVES BHUTAN CAMBODIA ,788 0 LAOS MONGOLIA ,145 0 TOTAL 39,514 24, ,463 2,529 6,347,323 Mol Ratio Estimation by JEA High CO2 and Low pollutants Emission factor is very low under some regulations. China and India are major emission countries in Asia.

14 Comparison with other results for SO2 (1) (Base year) Klimont (1995) RAINS-ASIA (1995) Streets (2000) Present (1995) China Japan (1.0)* N-Korea S-Korea Mongolia Taiwan Present study tends to be slightly higher than other results in China. In other countries, our results are similar to those of previous works. India (4.0)** East and South Asia (*) Estimation by JEA. (**) Reddy (Base year: ) (Unit) Mt/year

15 Comparison with other results for SO2 (2) China Overestimation in China is clear. Recent SO 2 emission trends in China (Streets et al., Atmos. Environ., 34,4413, 2000) Main reason is S-contents (1.28%) for HC is too high. If 1.12% recommended by Dr. Wang is applied, SO 2 emission decrease almost 10% based on rough estimate. This study After correct.

16 Comparison with other results for NOx (Base year) Klimont (1995) Aardenne (1995) Streets (2000) Present (1995) China Japan (2.0)* N-Korea S-Korea Mongolia Taiwan India East and South Asia (*) Estimation by JEA. (Unit) Mt/year (Unit) t/year Present results are similar to those of previous works.

17 Comparison with other results for CO (Base year) Tonooka ( ) Streets (1995) Streets (2000) Present (1995) China Japan (3.6)* Taiwan S-Korea (*) Estimation by JEA. (Unit) Mt/year There are large differences among the results of works. It is likely that this is caused by the inaccuracy of emission factor, because CO emission varies extremely by combustion conditions.

18 SO 2 Major sources Power Plant Industry NO x Major sources Power Plant Industry Road transport IND RES OTR ROAD IND ENG RES PP PP ENG Source category LPS Area LPS:Area=1:1 LPS Area CO BC RES ROAD RES PP : Power plant ROAD: Road transport OR : Oil refinary OTR : Other transport ENG : Energy RES : Residential IND : Industory OTH : Others OR IND OTH IND Major sources Residential Road transport Major sources Residential

19 NOx Spatial distributions CO SO 2 Major sources Power Plant Industry Road transport Developed Road Transport + Major sources Residential Road transport Urban + Road Transport BC Major sources Power Plant Industry Industry Undeveloped Major sources Residential

20 BC vs. CO, NOx vs. CO BC (t/y) NOx (t/y) Brunei Japan P S M Maldives T CO (t/y) S-Korea Thailand Road Transport In developed and developing countries, CO/BC ratio increases by the CO emissions from road transportation. Industry Mongoria Brunei Japan Taiwan N-Korea S-Korea CO (t/y) In industrial countries, CO/NOx ratio decreases by the NOx emissions from power-plant and industrial factories.

21 NMVOC from anthropogenic sources (1) methodology Activity levels Source categories = 81 (including biomass burning) Emission Factors U.S.EPA, CORINAIR Total Speciation Factors U.S.EPA classifications (Alkans 5, Alkens 4, Acetylene, Aromatics 4, Aldehydes 2, Ketones, Halocarbons, Unknown)

22 (2) Results (Comparison of NMVOC emission) (Base year) Piccot (1985) EDGAR (1990) Tonooka ( ) Present (1995) China Japan Taiwan S-Korea India (Note) Biomass burning is not included. (Unit) Mt/year Our results in East Asia are consistent with those by Dr. Tonooka. Piccot s result is too small in China, while it is too large in Japan.

23 Country source category Emission structure in Japan and S.-Korea is differ from others. Major emission countries in Asia (65%) Biomass burning is major source in Indochina. The contribution of biofuel combustion is very large.

24 Speciation of NMVOC (in whole domain) kt/yr % Alkans Ethane Propane Butanes Pentanes Other Alkanes Alkens Ethene Propene Alkenes Internal Alkenes Acetylene Aromatics Benzene Toluene Xylenes Other Aromatics Aldehydes HCHO Other Aldehydes Others Ketones Halocarbons Unknown Total Major sources Ethane => biofuel, biomass-burning Ethene => (the same as above), gasoline vehicle Others Aldehydes Aromatics Unknown Ethane Alkans Alkens The contribution of alkans, alkens, and aromatics is 20-25%, respectively.

25 Relationship between NOx and NMVOC In South and Southeast countries No biomass-burning case, NMVOC / NOx = 11 NMVOC from biomass-burning is very large. (e.g. 55% in Vietnam) NMVOC (Gmol) South and Southeast Countries (NOx:NMVOC=1:11) Taiwan South Korea North Korea Singapore Japan India China In China, India, Japan, and another countries, NMVOC / NOx = 4 to 6 Mongolia Excluding biomass-burning NMVOC/NOx ratio affects the photochemical reactivity. The ratios in Asia countries can be divided to two groups. Including biomass-burning

26 Summary and conclusion Asian emission inventories for SO 2, NOx, CO, BC, CO 2, and NMVOC from anthropogenic sources in 1995 were developed. On the whole, our results are consistent with the results from other works. In order to estimate precisely, the country/regional specific emission factors and detail information for emission control in each country are needed.

27 Current status and short-term direction for FRSGC emission inventory works We are working to develop the emission inventories in East and South Asia for the year 1995 and Until next summer, we hope to complete the development of 1st version s emission inventories for the year These database will be opened on the WEB site. Until the end of FY2002, we aim to develop the comprehensive inventories of trace atmospheric constituents from anthropogenic and natural sources in East and South Asia for the year 1995 and 2000.