The air quality impact of energy saving measures in the major cities signatories of the Covenant of Mayors Fabio Monforti-Ferrario

Transcription

1 The air quality impact of energy saving measures in the major cities signatories of the Covenant of Mayors Fabio Monforti-Ferrario Albana Kona Emanuela Peduzzi Denise Pernigotti The European Commission s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre Enrico Pisoni

2 Scope The Covenant of Mayors is the world's largest movement for local climate and energy actions. Is it possible to quantify the co-benefits for air quality for such a wide initiative? 2

3 Outline Climate mitigation and air quality benefits Covenant of Mayors Tools and indicators Results & discussion Conclusions 3

4 Climate change benefit (CCB) Air Quality Benefit (AQB) 4 (von Schneidemesser and Monks,2013)

5 54 Countries signatories Covenant of Mayors initiative 252 million citizens Covenant EU 28 EU Member States + EEA Countries Covenant East Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine 5 Covenant South Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, Tunisia

6 The CoM signatories commitments Signatory cities pledge action to support implementation of the EU greenhouse gas-reduction targets of 20% by 2020 and/or 40% by 2030 and the adoption of a joint approach to tackling mitigation and adaptation to climate change and have to prepare and implement a Sustainable Energy Action Plan (SEAP) (now SECAP Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan) including: - the list of measures planned and their estimated impact - a Baseline Emission Inventory (GHG!!) 6

7 The CoM measures Three main types of measures: - Energy Saving measures (ES) - Renewable Energy Production measures (REP) - Mixed measures (MIX) 7

8 All CoM measures aim at reducing CO 2 emissions CCB > 0 Energy Saving (ES) Renewable Energy Production (REP) Mixed (MIX) This work focuses on ES measures only 8

9 Dataset selection Criteria: largest cities + full data availability for both AQ and CC 2713 measures in 146 cities spread over 23 countries Shares of measures by sector Shares of energy saved by sectors Pop: ES: 60 TWh/y

10 Indicators: Climate Change Benefit (CCB) CCB = (EM SAV /EM TOT,X ) EM SAV = Emissions saved by the measure EM TOT = Total CO 2 Emissions in city X 0<CCB<1 10

11 11 Simplified SR model

12 Working hypothesis In each sector, energy saved is directly proportional to pollution decrease 12 Harmonized methodology across investigated cities.

13 Indicators: Air Quality Benefit (AQB) AQB = (E SAV /E SEC,X )(SI SEC,X /SI TOT,X ) E SAV = Energy saved by the measure, applied in city X to sector SEC E SEC = Energy consumption in the city X in the sector SEC SI SEC = Impact on the AQ levels of city X of the local emissions of SEC SI TOT = Impacts on the AQ levels of city X of the local emissions from all sectors 0<AQB<1 Fractional decrease of the pollutant concentration originated by the local sources 13

14 Examples of measures in Barcelona Promote the installation of solar thermal systems in sports centres Implementation of Barcelona Urban Mobility Plan 14

15 Examples of measures in Barcelona CCB = 0.007% AQB = 0.003% CCB = 11.9% AQB = 12.4% 15

16 16 AQB vs CCB - all selected measures

17 AQB vs CCB - sectors and pollutants PM 2.5 For the Sector same (N) climate Coefficient benefit, traffic R 2 measures Whole sample produce (2713) a higher PM benefit than measures targeting residential sector Residential (1746) For the same climate benefit, traffic measures produce a much higher NO 2 benefit than measures targeting residential sector Traffic (710)

18 Premature Deaths avoided vs. CC benefit PM 2.5 Total PD avoided : 6569/y Of which: 2591/y from "Residential" measures 3280 /y from "Traffic" measures 18 Avoided Premature Deaths Years of Life Saved All sectors Traffic Buildings Industry Pop:

19 Conclusions - We have provided a first quantitative evaluation of the Air Quality co-benefits of a subset of the measures planned in the CoM. - A main result of this study is the demonstration of existence of co-benefits: for the cities and the measures involved, the presence of relevant co-benefits has been demonstrated in a robust way. - Moreover, statistical analysis has also shown that co-benefits depend on the sector targeted and the pollutant considered and has provided a first quantification. 19

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21 Outlook - Extend the analysis to include other kinds of measures. - Focusing on key actions for more details - Investigate the influence of other variables (e.g, city size, climate areas, pollutants levels) - Discuss findings with stakeholders 21

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23 Stay in touch EU Science Hub: ec.europa.eu/jrc Facebook: EU Science Hub - Joint Research Centre LinkedIn: Joint Research Centre YouTube: EU Science Hub 23

24 Example a SMALL measure in Barcelona CCB COM3: Promote the installation of solar thermal systems in sports centres CCB = (EM SAV /EM TOT,X ) EM SAV = 226 tco2-eq/y EM TOT = tco2-eq/y CCB = 0.007% 24

25 Example a measure in Barcelona AQB COM3: Promote the installation of solar thermal systems in sports centers AQB = (E SAV /E SEC,X )(SI SEC,X /SI TOT,X ) E SAV = 1120 MWh/y E SEC = 9.78 x 10 7 MWh/y SI SEC = 8.34 SI TOT = 29.5 AQB = % 25

26 Example a LARGE measure in Barcelona CCB Implementation of Barcelona Urban Mobility Plan CCB = (EM SAV /EM TOT,X ) EM SAV = tco2-eq/y EM TOT = tco2-eq/y CCB = 11.9% 26

27 Example a LARGE measure in Barcelona AQB Implementation of Barcelona Urban Mobility Plan AQB = (E SAV /E SEC,X )(SI SEC,X /SI TOT,X ) E SAV = 1.48 x 10 7 MWh/y E SEC = 4.09 x 10 7 MWh/y SI SEC = 10.1 SI TOT = 29.5 AQB = 12.4% 27