Overview and Status of HTAP 2 Experiments

Transcription

1 Overview and Status of HTAP 2 Experiments Terry Keating, PhD U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air & Radiation Co-Chairs Frank Dentener, PhD European Commission Joint Research Centre

2 Intro to TF HTAP Task Force Mandate TF HTAP was created by the LRTAP Convention s Executive Body in December 2004 to develop a fuller understanding of the hemispheric transport of air pollution. o The TF HTAP chairs were encouraged to invite the participation of experts both inside and outside the geographic bounds of the Convention. In 2010, the Executive Body further charged the TF HTAP to o Examine the transport of air pollution, including ozone and its precursors, across the Northern Hemisphere o Assess potential emission mitigation options available inside and outside the UNECE o Assess their impacts on regional and global air quality, public health, ecosystems, and near-term climate change o Work in collaboration with other groups both inside and outside the Convention.

3 Parties to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution And Other Participants in TF HTAP Approximately 800 individual scientists have taken part in at least one TF HTAP activity since 2005.

4 Objectives of Work Plan 1. Deliver Policy Relevant Information to the LRTAP Convention, Other Multi- Lateral Forums, and National Governments a. What fraction of air pollution can be attributed to contemporary anthropogenic regional emissions sources versus extra-regional, non-anthropogenic, or legacy sources of pollution? b. What is the contribution of each fraction to impacts on human health, ecosystems and climate change? c. How sensitive are regional pollution levels and related impacts to changes in regional versus extra-regional emission sources? d. How will the contributions of the fractions and their sensitivities change in the future as a result of expected air pollution abatement efforts or climate change? e. How do the availability, costs and impacts of additional emission abatement options compare across different regions? 2. Improve Our Scientific Understanding of Air Pollution at the Global to Hemispheric Scale 3. Build a Common Understanding by Engaging Experts Inside and Outside the LRTAP Convention

5 Work Plan Themes of Cooperative Activities Under TF HTAP As Numbered in Convention Work Plan Emissions & Projections Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, & Climate Model/Observation & Process Evaluation Impact of Climate Change on Pollution Papers & Reports Data Network & Analysis Tools > 35 Work Packages identified, each with a volunteer leader.

6 Work Plan Emissions Mosaics for 2008 and 2010 A global data set compiled from inventories developed at the national or regional scale (Europe, US, Canada, China, Korea, India, Rest of Asia, Rest of World) to be consistent with AQMEII and MICS-Asia. Anthropogenic emissions at 0.1⁰ x 0.1 ⁰ resolution (some data at 0.25 ⁰) HTAP NO x Emissions from Road Transportation Data available online.

7 Work Plan Benchmark Scenarios for Defining reference points for a discussion about what is possible and what is likely using 3 scenarios: Current Legislation, No Further Control, and Maximum Technological Reductions Workshop planned for week of Feb 9 at IIASA outside Vienna.

8 Work Plan Source Receptor Modeling Experiments NA EU SA EA HTAP1 focused on source-receptor relationships between 4 large continental regions HTAP2 is looking at 16 source regions separated mostly along national boundaries and ~60 receptor regions. AQMEII AQMEII MICS Asia And linking with higher resolution regional model intercomparisons

9 HTAP2 Model Experiments Base run: (+6 months spin-up for global models) [CH 4 ] perturbation runs Emission perturbation runs (-20%): Each modelling group should balance these priorities with their research interests All By pollutant anthropogenic By sector Global Regional 13 regions + Oceans

10 Planning to nest regional model ensembles within global model ensembles by coordinating with existing regionalscale model intercomparison projects: MICS-Asia AQMEII EuroDelta3? POLMIP? Nesting Global and Regional Simulations Globally unperturbed Globally perturbed Regionally perturbed Boundary Conditions Regionally unperturbed Regionally perturbed Regionally perturbed

11 1.6.2 Global/Regional Modeling of S/R Relationships Global Model Outputs for Regional Boundary Conditions 4 Models/Groups: AM3/NOAA, IFS/ECMWF, GEOSChem/SNU, Chaser/NIES 6 Scenarios: BASE: base simulation CH4INC: global methane increase GLOALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions globally NAMALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions in N. America EURALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions in Europe EASALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions in East Asia SASALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions in South Asia 3 years:

12 HTAP2 output variables B JRC The list of model outputs requested was built on several iterations with modellers, on the basis of HTAP specific objectives and previous MIPs output diagnostics. Each requested output variable is to be provided in a separate file containing all time steps for a single year. The requested outputs are divided into 5 output types, defined primarily by the vertical dimension of the data: 1. Surface (original model grid) 2. Column (original model grid) 3. ModelLevel (original model grid) 4. SurfaceAtStations (gas and aerosol monitoring stations provided separately) 5. ModelLevelAtStations (e.g. at mountain sites, soundings, MOZAIC profile). The frequency of the outputs includes: time invariant, hourly, daily, monthly, sat1000, sat1330, sat2200, sat0130 (satellite overpass times). File Name Convention The variable, the type, and the year and frequency are part of the model output file name (exp:htap2_geoschem822_globall_vmro3_modellevel_2010_hourly.nc) The NetCDF CF goes through extensive evaluation by CF panel- advising on naming. CMOR tables for fortran librariies.

13 Model-Observation Evaluations and Process Studies Possible Themes Comparison to Satellite and Aircraft Observations Regional Budgets Vertical Profiles Ozone Deposition and Stomatal Flux S/R Methods Comparison Ozone Surface Observations Biomass Burning Sensitivity North American Inflow Black Carbon Sulfate/Nitrate Budgets Optical Properties Local Scale Sensitivities Partner organisations AeroCom CCMI AQMEII MICS-Asia EuroDelta3 POLMIP GMOS POPs South Asian Work Group

14 Work Plan Work Flow 2008, 2010 Emissions /2050 Scenarios Global Base Modeling Regional Base Modeling Global & Regional Perturbations Model-Observation Analyses Source Attribution Method Comparison Source/Receptor Parameterization Air Quality, Health, Ecosystem, and Climate Impacts of Mitigation Scenarios

15 HTAP2 Simulations On-Line Tracking Form (

16 HTAP2 Simulations On-Line Tracking Form (

17 Policy Relevant Products Potential Policy Audiences (Time Windows) EU Thematic Strategy for Air Quality (?) LRTAP Convention Assessment (Jan Dec 2015) EPA O3 NAAQS Implementation ( ) EPA PM NAAQS Integrated Science Assessment (2015-6) Minimata Mercury Convention Implementation (?)

18 Meetings and Milestones Near Term Meetings as Drivers Global Emissions Scenarios Workshop, Feb 11-13?, Vienna AQMEII Session, ITM 2015, 4-8 May, Montpellier, France TFMM, 5-8 May, Krakow, Poland; TFIAM, 5-7 May, Edinburgh HTAP2 Model Evaluation Workshop, May 11-13, Boulder EMEP Steering Body Meeting, Sept, Geneva TF HTAP Integrated Assessment Workshop, Fall 2015,? WGSR Meeting, Dec, Geneva EB Meeting, April 2016, Geneva

19 TF HTAP is looking forward to a productive collaboration with AQMEII and MICS-Asia. AQMEII AQMEII HTAP MICS Asia