Origin Energy Quarterly Report September 2018

Transcription

1 Origin Energy Quarterly Report September 2018

2 Summary Unit Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR % Mvt Sep-17 QTR % Mvt Integrated Gas () Production PJ % Sales PJe % Commodity Revenue $m % % Energy Markets Electricity sales TWh % 9.7 (2%) Natural gas sales PJ % % Corporate Origin capex continuing operations $m (68%) 60 (30%) Whilst production was stable, Origin s share of APLNG revenue increased by 12% on Jun-18 quarter and 35% on Sep-17 quarter to $640 million, driven by higher realised prices for both LNG and domestic gas. Energy Markets electricity sales increased from Jun-18 quarter in line with seasonal demand Energy Markets gas sales increased by 6% on Jun-18 quarter reflecting new short term contracts in QLD and higher seasonal demand in VIC, partially offset by lower sales to generation. Origin capex was lower than expected due to timing and primarily relates to Energy Markets, including Power of Choice investment, retail digital spend and generation maintenance October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

3 Oil and LNG markets Japan Customs-Cleared Crude ($US/bbl) LNG Spot ($US/mmbtu) FX (AUD/USD) Q Q Q1 JCC Effective oil price Source: Petroleum Association of Japan Source: Origin analysis Source: Reserve Bank of Australia APLNG effective oil price for September 2018 quarter was US$68.77/bbl Higher commodity prices and lower AUD/USD exchange rate resulted in higher APLNG revenue Oil prices have risen as the oil market enters a period of supply deficit due to reduced available spare capacity in the market LNG prices remain elevated due to delays to key international liquefaction projects, low gas inventory levels in Europe (due to a hot summer and high carbon prices) and continued strong demand in China 3 31 October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

4 Integrated Gas Unit Sept-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR % Mvt Sept-17 QTR % Mvt Total production (Origin share) PJ % LNG (Origin share) Production kt % (7%) Sales kt % (3%) Commodity Revenue $m % % Domestic Gas (Origin share) Sales PJ (4%) % Commodity Revenue $m % Origin Only costs Origin hedging costs $m (51.1) (57.3) (11%) (13.9) 268% Total production volumes have remained stable at 64.3 PJ LNG production increased by 8% on Jun-18 quarter (reflecting higher customer demand) but was down 7% on Sep-17 quarter (due to the two train lenders test in the prior year) LNG revenue of $527 million was up 15% on Jun-18 quarter and 37% on Sep-17 quarter, primarily reflecting higher realised prices Domestic revenue of $114 million was flat on prior quarter but up 27% on Sep-17 quarter, reflecting higher realised prices and higher sales volumes Hedging costs of $51 million reduced by 11% on Jun-18 quarter reflecting lower hedge premium amortisation partly offset by increased oil hedge losses FY2019 hedge contracts provide approximately 75% participation in oil prices changes between US$60/bbl and US$75/bbl with full participation above US$75/bbl 4 31 October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

5 Integrated Gas Unit Sept-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR % Mvt Sept-17 QTR % Mvt Origin Only costs Capex - continuing operations $m (71%) 5 1 (60%) APLNG Capex (100%) Exploration and appraisal $m % % Sustain and Other $m % 313 7% 1 Restated from prior period to include corporate reallocations APLNG capex E&A capex increased to $26.8 million due to drilling of Burunga South 2 and the preparation for Peat 3D seismic Burunga South 2 is a deep conventional exploration well and during the quarter reached total depth of 3,608 mrt. Drilling confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons and the well is now cased and suspended as further testing is required to determine commercial deliverability. One exploration well was spudded during the quarter Sustain and other capex has increased by 31% from Jun-18 quarter, reflecting wet weather and reduced rig availability in the prior quarter; increased workover activity to improve well availability; and higher non-operated capex due to increased activity including development of new fields Roma East and Arcadia 5 31 October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

6 A$/GJ A$/MWh Electricity and Gas markets Electricity ($/MWh) Q1 Average spot electricity price for September 2018 quarter was $83.7/MWh, up $0.14/MWh from the June 2018 quarter: Higher average QLD and NSW prices driven by lower baseload coal and gas generation availability 50 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 QLD NSW VIC SA Source: AEMO 10 8 Natural Gas ($/GJ) Q1 Lower average SA and VIC prices due to higher renewable generation and Basslink returning to service Average domestic natural gas price for September 2018 quarter was $9.45/GJ, up $1.0/GJ from the June 2018 quarter, driven by Asia regional LNG pricing. 6 4 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Victoria Adelaide Brisbane Sydney Wallumbilla Source: AEMO 6 31 October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Electricity forward prices NSW QLD Fwds Baseload CalYr:2019 Fwds Baseload CalYr:2020 Fwds Baseload CalYr:2019 Fwds Baseload CalYr: VIC 110 SA Fwds Baseload CalYr:2019 Fwds Baseload CalYr:2020 Fwds Baseload CalYr:2019 Fwds Baseload CalYr:2020 Source: AEMO 7 31 October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

8 Energy Markets operations Unit Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR % Mvt Sep-17 QTR % Mvt Sales volumes Electricity sales Retail TWh % 4.8 (2%) Electricity sales Business TWh % 4.9 (2%) Natural gas sales Retail PJ % 17.4 (9%) Natural gas sales Business PJ % % Natural gas sales Internal PJ (42%) 15.4 (24%) Capex continuing operations $m (67%) 54 (26%) Electricity Retail sales increased from Jun-18 quarter in line with seasonal demand, but was slightly lower than Sep-17 quarter Gas Retail sales increased 18% from Jun-18 quarter due to seasonal demand, but was 9% lower than Sep-17 quarter due to milder weather in Victoria Gas Business sales increased 25% due to new short term sales contracts in Queensland and higher seasonal demand in Victoria compared with Jun-18 quarter Internal gas sales decreased as gas was redirected from generation to the wholesale market Capex in the quarter primarily comprised of: mandatory spend on Power of Choice regulatory reforms; investment in our retail digital capabilities; maintenance spend on Uranquinty and Eraring; and growth spend on Quarantine re-power 8 31 October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

9 9 31 October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report Data tables

10 APLNG sources of gas Units Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR % Change Sep-17 QTR FYTD2019 FYTD2018 Production volumes Operated Spring Gully PJ Peat PJ Denison PJ Talinga PJ % Orana PJ % Condabri PJ (4%) Combabula/Reedy Creek PJ % Total operated production PJ % Non-operated Fairview/Arcadia (GLNG) PJ (3%) Kenya East (QGC) PJ Kenya (QGC) PJ (4%) Bellevue (QGC) PJ Total non-operated production PJ (3%) Total upstream production PJ Natural gas purchases PJ % Changes in Upstream gas inventory/other PJ (0.7) (1.1) (36%) 0.3 (0.7) 0.3 Total sources of natural gas PJ % October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

11 APLNG uses of gas Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR Sep-17 QTR FYTD2019 FYTD2018 Uses of gas Units % Change LNG feed gas PJ % Domestic sales PJ (4%) Total uses of natural gas PJ % LNG Units Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR % Change Sep-17 QTR FYTD2019 FYTD2018 LNG Production kt % Changes in LNG inventory kt (4.6) 17.8 (126%) (37.9) (4.6) (37.9) Total LNG sales volume kt % LNG cargos loaded and shipped # % October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

12 APLNG Sales Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR Sep-17 QTR FYTD2019 FYTD2018 Share of APLNG Sales revenue Units % Change LNG $m % Domestic Gas $m Total Commodity Revenue (ORG share) $m % Sales APLNG average realised prices Units Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR % Change Sep-17 QTR FYTD2019 FYTD2018 LNG US$/mmbtu % Domestic Gas $/GJ % Average Commodity price $/GJe % Restated from prior period Origin only costs Units Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR % Change Sep-17 QTR FYTD2019 FYTD2018 Hedge premium amortisation $m (2.2) (16.7) (87%) (17.4) (2.2) (17.4) Gain / (Loss) on oil hedging $m (27.9) (19.2) 45% (0.2) (27.9) (0.2) Gain / (Loss) on LNG hedging $m (21.0) (21.4) (2%) 3.7 (21.0) 3.7 Total $m (51.1) (57.3) (11%) (13.9) (51.1) (13.9) October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

13 Operated drilling & production APLNG Operated Production Wells Bowen Surat Spring Gully Peat Denison Talinga Orana Condabri Combabula / Reedy Creek TOTAL Avg daily production (APLNG share) TJ/d 6.0 TJ/d 2.8 TJ/d TJ/d TJ/d TJ/d TJ/d 1,438.4 TJ/d Development Wells Wells drilled Wells commissioned Sept-18 QTR - 1 FYTD Sept-18 QTR - - FYTD Sept-18 QTR - - FYTD Sept-18 QTR - 27 FYTD Sept-18 QTR 2 26 FYTD Sept-18 QTR 16 7 FYTD Sept-18 QTR FYTD Sept-18 QTR FYTD October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

14 Non-Operated drilling & production APLNG Non-Operated Production Wells Fairview Avg daily production (APLNG share) TJ/d Development Wells Wells drilled Wells commissioned Sept-18 QTR FYTD GLNG Arcadia 1.8 TJ/d Sept-18 QTR 18 - FYTD QGC Roma East Anya Kenya East Kenya Bellevue TOTAL 0.0 TJ/d 0.0 TJ/d TJ/d TJ/d 7.4 TJ/d TJ/d Sept-18 QTR FYTD Sept-18 QTR 4 25 FYTD Sept-18 QTR 40 8 FYTD Sept-18 QTR 9 7 FYTD Sept-18 QTR - - FYTD Sept-18 QTR FYTD October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

15 Energy Markets sales volumes Electricity sales volume (TWh) Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR FYTD2019 FYTD2018 Volumes sold (TWh) Retail Business Retail Business Retail Business Retail Business NSW Queensland Victoria South Australia Total volumes sold Natural Gas sales volume (PJ) Sep-18 QTR Jun-18 QTR FYTD2019 FYTD2018 Volumes sold (PJ) Retail Business Retail Business Retail Business Retail Business NSW Queensland Victoria South Australia External volumes sold Internal sales (generation) Total volumes sold October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report

16 Conversion factors and abbreviations Conversion factors LNG PJ/ktonnes LNG GJ/mmbtu Abbreviations APLNG barrels Bopd bwpd C&C C&S CSG FID GJ joule kbbls kt LNG mmbbl mmboe mmbtu mmscf mrt mtpa P&A P&S pa PJ PJe QGC Spudding SWQ t TJ TJ/d YTD Australia Pacific LNG an incorporated Joint Venture between Origin, ConocoPhillips and Sinopec an international measure of oil production. 1 barrel = 159 litres barrels of oil per day barrels of water per day cased and completed cased and suspended coal seam gas final investment decision gigajoule = 10 9 joules a measure of energy Kilo barrels = 1,000 barrels Kilo tonnes = 1,000 tonnes liquefied natural gas million barrels million barrels of oil equivalent million British thermal units million standard cubic feet Measured depth below rotary table in meters million tonnes per annum plugged and abandoned plugged and suspended per annum petajoule = joules petajoule equivalent, a measure used to express the volume of different petroleum products on the basis of the energy contained in the product Queensland Gas Company to commence drilling a well South West Queensland tonnes terajoule = joules terajoules per day year to date October 2018 September 2018 Quarterly Report