KICL. Economic, Social, and Environmental Impact Assessment

Transcription

1 KICL Economic, Social, and Environmental Impact Assessment September 2016

2 in conjunction with Document Title: Prepared for: Quality Assurance Statement Rationale Limited Project Manager: Walter Clarke 5 Arrow Lane Prepared by: Walter Clarke, Bryan De George PO Box 226 Reviewed by: Kath Jones Arrowtown 9351 Approved for issue by: Walter Clarke Phone: Job number: J Document Control History Rev No. Date Revision Details Prepared by Reviewed by Approved by Apr 2016 Draft for client WC/BDG KJ WC May 2016 Final draft WC/BDG KICL WC Sept 2016 Final WC KICL WC Current Version Rev No. Date Revision Details Prepared by Reviewed by Approved by Sept 2016 WC KICL WC File path: Documents1/Clients/KICL/6 Final Report/KICL - Economic, Social and Environmental Impact Assessment.docx

3 Contents Executive Summary Introduction Objective Background Economic Assessment Overview Assessment Economic Impact Summary Social Assessment Overview Historical Background People Employment Opportunities Social Impact Summary Environmental Assessment... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.1 Overview... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.2 Assessment... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.3 Environmental Impact Summary... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix 1 Farm budget and assumptions... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix 2 Geoff Butcher- Economic Impact Assessment... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix 3 Davis Consulting Group- Environmental Impact AssessmentError! Bookmark not defined.

4 Executive Summary Objective The objective of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the impact of the Kerikeri Irrigation Company Limited (KICL) irrigation scheme on the economic, social and environmental make-up of the command area, surrounding towns and the Far North district and wider Northland region. The purpose of the assessment is to: Provide evidence on the value of the KICL scheme to various community groups, local and regional authorities and the general public. Support future resource consent applications. Summary of findings The assessment shows that the KICL scheme has had a very positive impact on the economic and social aspects of Kerikeri and the surrounding area. The KICL scheme has also improved the water quantity in surrounding catchments during heavy droughts and has not had a negative impact on water quality of the surrounding water ways. Background The KICL scheme was commissioned in The scheme includes two large water reservoirs that supply water to: horticultural land (approximately 2,300 hectares) agricultural land (approximately 350 hectares) lifestyle blocks commercial users raw bulk water for town supply. The study area includes the Kerikeri township and surrounding rural area serviced by the irrigation scheme. The assessment also considers the flow effect that the irrigation has for the Far North district and the Northland region. The study area map used for the purpose of the social impact assessment is shown below. Urban and Rural study area Rural study area Urban study area 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 1

5 Economic Impact Assessment With the security of the KICL irrigation water, horticulture (mainly kiwifruit and citrus) is now the dominant use of the land followed by dairying and then sheep/beef grazing. The table below shows the difference between pre-irrigation and post-irrigation for the two main economic outputs: Gross Domestic Product (value added) and employment (full time equivalents (FTEs)). Economic Impact of the KICL Scheme - GDP (Value Added) and Employment Direct GDP (Value Added) ($m / year) Flow on and process Far North District Northland Region TOTAL GDP Direct Flow on and process Employment (FTEs) Far North District Northland Region TOTAL FTEs $59.9m $40.6m $100.4m $5.8m $106.2m , ,317 The current Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Far North district is estimated to be around $1,800M. The contribution of irrigation from the KICL scheme, $100M, to the district s GDP is around 5.5%. Similarly, the contribution to employment from this study area of 1,261 FTEs is estimated to be around 6.5% of the district s FTEs. The majority of the GDP generated results directly from farms and orchards. The flow on component is also significant and is mostly within the Far North district, with the processing component and regional impact being the minor portion. The economic analysis also shows that the scheme is predominately a horticulture scheme, most noticeably kiwifruit and citrus. Over 97% of the economic activity generated is related to the horticulture orchards. Social Impact Assessment The social benefit that the KICL scheme provides is supported by the indicators shown in the table below. These social indicators highlight the social benefits within the study area. These were derived from census data and other Statistics New Zealand figures ranging from 1981 to date. The following table summarises how the study area performs compared to the district and the region. Social Impact of the KICL Scheme Social indicator People Rural Study Area Urban Study Area Total Study Area Growth in resident population, households and occupied dwellings Average annual rate of growth in the number of working age people Proportion of people that own or part own their households Long term tenure at place of residence - Employment opportunities Household income Proportion of the population in full-time employment. Proportion of workers in professional service occupations. - Average annual growth rate in the number of workers Key: = higher than the district/region; - = the same as the district/region; = lower than the district/region In both the urban study area, and the rural study area, the growth in resident population was highest in the 1990s. Some of this positive growth can be attributed to the effect that the KICL scheme has had on the district. There has also been an increase in building consent activity both in the study area and the district, over the past 25 years. Over this time the building consent activity per usually resident population is much higher in the study area compared to the rest of the district. The above findings indicate that the KICL scheme has had a positive impact on both the study area and the district and region as a whole. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 2

6 Environmental Impact Assessment The feasibility report for the scheme provided evidence that prior to the construction of the scheme, the catchments were over-allocated, and the conditions of the rivers were such that the option of doing nothing was unacceptable. The assessment considered the water quantity (flow) and water quality in the surrounding catchments. A qualitative summary of the impact on flows of the KICL scheme is provided in the following table. This shows that total flows and drought flows are improved in a majority of the streams and rivers. Environmental Impact of the KICL Scheme Water Quantity Allocation Catchment Pre-scheme Current (allocation as % of annual low flow) Impact of Irrigation Scheme Compared to Pre-Scheme Total flows Drought Flows Okura River Over-allocated 6% Puketotara Stream Kerikeri River Over-allocated Acceptable 23%? Waipapa Stream Over-allocated 263% Rangitane River Over-allocated 11% Waitangi River Unknown 34% Key: = improved; = reduced;? = unknown The following table summarises the analysis of the water quality in the two main reservoirs. Environmental Impact of the KICL Scheme Water Quality Reservoir Lake Manuwai Lake Waingaro Complies with Water Quality Consent Conditions for the majority of the time The water quality impacts of the KICL scheme were also assessed by comparing the reservoir water quality and downstream water quality of the Waipapa Stream at Waipapa Landing with guideline values. Based on this assessment, there is no evidence that the KICL scheme is likely to be having a direct negative effect on water quality. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 3

7 1 Introduction 1.1 Objective The objective of this report is to provide a preliminary assessment of the impact of the Kerikeri Irrigation Company Limited (KICL) irrigation scheme on the economic, social and environmental make-up of the surrounding area, towns, the Far North District and the Northland region. The purpose of the assessment is to: Provide evidence on the value of the KICL scheme to various community groups, local and regional authorities and the general public. Support future resource consent applications. 1.2 Background Kerikeri is situated on the east coast of the Northland Region and experiences wet winters and warm dry summers. Orchards were first planted in the Kerikeri region in the 1920s. In the 1950s, development of orchards and horticulture increased rapidly. Subsequently, competing demands for water began to exert pressure on existing water sources. Low streamflows during the typically hot, dry summers coincide with high plant evapotranspiration rates and thus demands for water are highest when flows are lowest. The KICL scheme was introduced in the 1980s to address the disparity between water needs and water supply. The Kerikeri township and surrounding rural area are serviced by the irrigation scheme. The KICL irrigation scheme supplies water to: horticultural land (approximately 2,300 hectares) agricultural land (approximately 350 hectares) lifestyle blocks commercial users raw bulk water for town supply. The scheme also provides a recreational facility for water sports, e.g. swimming, fishing and boating. The Southern Reservoir, Lake Waingaro, can store 4.8 million cubic metres of water, which is piped to the Kerikeri Township area. The Northern Reservoir, Manuwai, can store 8 million cubic metres of water and utilises gravity and Michell turbines to supply parts of the Northern Kerikeri area. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 4

8 2 Economic Assessment The economic assessment uses multiplier economics to quantify the impact of the irrigation scheme on the district and region. The NZ Input-Output model was used as a base, and from this a Northland regional economic model and a Far North District economic model was developed by Butcher Partners Limited Consulting Economics. The key inputs into the model were the land use by area within the scheme and model farm/orchard budgets provided by Compass Agribusiness. The farm/orchard budgets are shown in Appendix A and the full economic report can be found in Appendix B. The findings are summarised in the following sections. 2.1 Overview The Northland region and Far North district s economic profile can be summarised using the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from 2013 provided by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE). The total for the Northland region is $5.3 billion. The agriculture and horticulture sector contributes to over 8% of the total, ranking in the top five sectors. The estimate of the GDP of the Far North District is $1.8 billion. Figure 1 : Gross Domestic Product (GDP of Northland region by industry sector) Public administration; 186 Information media, telecos; 186 Wholesale trade; 124 Financial services; 126 Accommodation, food; 102 Manufacturing; 565 Transport, w arehousing; 221 Property operation; 520 Retail trade; 271 Education; 271 Health, social care; 463 Professional services; 272 GST, taxes; 451 Construction; 292 Forestry, fishing, mining, utilities; 389 Real estate services; 429 Agriculture/ horticulture; Assessment The economic modelling method accounts for both the direct and the downstream effect of the irrigation scheme on the region s economy. The flow on effects are the benefits experienced by secondary firms and sectors that supply the primary farms that are using irrigation. The direct farm productivity creates demand for secondary goods and services that facilitate and supply the farms, such as transport, farm management consultancy, etc. The wider impacts on the local area created by the increase in household income and expenditure are also captured. The flow on and processing effects include changes in spending resulting from the direct and downstream effects. For example, with increased revenue on farm, a farmer may then spend more at his local store. The changes in direct and downstream effects flow on to affect the wider community due to changed spending. The following schematic shows how these downstream effects stem from the direct farm impacts. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 5

9 Figure 2: Wider Impact Analysis Schematic Northland region Direct farm/orchard impacts plus: Share of Flow on impacts Share of Processing effects Flow on and processing Far North District Direct farm/orchard impacts plus: Share of flow on effects Share of processing effects Flow on and processing Direct (farm/orchard ) Direct farm/orchard impacts only The following section quantifies the direct, flow on and processing benefit that the KICL scheme has provided to the district and the region. The economic assessment compares the economic output from the land prior to the KICL scheme with the economic output today. The economic outputs include: Revenue generated. Value added - this is the return to land, labour and capital. This is equivalent to operating surplus + labour (wages and salaries). This is a proxy for gross domestic product and is referred to as GDP. Employment number of full time equivalents (FTEs). Household income. The economic impact includes both the direct and downstream impact. Geographically, the direct impact is the on-farm/orchard impact. The downstream impact captures the flow on effect of the increased economic activity; this is likely to be in both the townships in the study area and elsewhere in the region. This ensures the analysis reflects the change in all economic output created by the KICL scheme, not solely the output from the direct area. Pack houses for the orchards are included in the direct impact. The inclusion of the dry land sheep and beef represents the economic output before the irrigation water was available. This approach ensures the economic analysis represents the increase in economic activity provided by the secure supply of water. The following sections summarise the direct and downstream impacts and also the impact from each of the land uses within the KICL scheme Direct Impact For the purpose of this study, the pre-irrigation use is assumed to be dryland sheep and beef, as this is the likely land use without a secure supply of irrigation water. With the security of the KICL irrigation water, horticulture is now the dominant use of the land followed by dairy and then irrigated sheep and beef. An estimate of the current day land use post-irrigation was provided by KICL from their customer database. The land use pre and post KICL is summarised in the following table. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 6

10 Table 1 : Land Use Pre and Post the KICL Scheme Pre-KICL Dryland sheep and beef Irrigated Sheep & Beef Dairy Post-KICL Kiwifruit, berries & flowers Citrus, other fruit & veges TOTAL Area (Ha) 1, ,608 The above areas represent the effective productive area. This is estimated to be around 85% of total irrigated land area. The analysis also excludes lifestyle blocks (210 Ha), low intensity grazing (160 Ha), recreational areas and industrial land as they are likely to have little economic impact arising from the availability of water from the irrigation scheme. The direct outputs per hectare for each land use from the economic analysis are summarised below. Table 2 : Direct Economic Outputs per hectare Dryland sheep and beef Irrigated Sheep & Beef Dairy Kiwifruit, berries & flowers Citrus, other fruit & veges Revenue $756 $1,597 $4,956 $127,034 $66,240 Jobs (FTEs) GDP $395 $575 $1,955 $69,591 $36,044 HH Income $231 $361 $732 $32,246 $30,649 The table shows that the security of a water supply enables a higher economic use of the land. There is a significant step change going from dryland to irrigated sheep and beef and the again to dairy. However, the most noticeable increase is in the horticulture sectors. These sectors are predominately kiwifruit and citrus orchards, but also include berries, flowers, nurseries, other fruit and vegetables. The combination of the land use and the economic land use assumptions provide the direct economic outputs for the entire scheme. These are summarised in the table below. Table 3 : Direct Economic Outputs generated by KICL Dryland sheep and beef Irrigated Sheep & Beef Dairy Kiwifruit, berries & flowers Citrus, other fruit & veges Total Net Impact Revenue -$1.2 $0.26m $1.7m $76.3m $32.9m $110.0m Jobs (FTEs) GDP -$0.6m $0.094m $0.68m $41.8m $17.9m $59.9m HH Income -$0.37m $0.058m $0.25m $19.4m $15.2 $34.6m The table shows that the direct economic impact from the KICL scheme for the district is an additional 922 jobs and $60M increase in GDP. The revenue generated and household income created are $110M and $34.6M respectively Flow and Processing Impact The wider area impacts (downstream effects) per hectare for each land use are summarised in the following table. These are shown for both the district and the region and split out into flow on and processing. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 7

11 Table 4 : Downstream Economic Outputs per hectare Area/ Output Dryland sheep and beef Irrigated Sheep & Beef Dairy Kiwifruit, berries & flowers Citrus, other fruit & veges District Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Revenue $825 $739 $1,874 $1,614 $5,572 $0 $139,723 $0 $70,293 $0 Jobs (FTEs) GDP $223 $224 $613 $489 $1,294 $0 $44,562 $0 $27,892 $0 HH Income $138 $129 $318 $282 $755 $0 $21,192 $0 $13,153 $0 Region Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Revenue $96 $787 $257 $1,720 $580 $13,589 $7,944 $0 $5,217 $0 Jobs (FTEs) GDP $74 $236 $181 $516 $447 $3,197 $5,409 $0 $3,375 $0 HH Income $43 $145 $95 $318 $251 $1,732 $3,132 $0 $1,923 $0 The key point is that the majority of sheep, beef and dairy downstream economic activity (e.g. meat and milk processing) is outside the district and in the Northland region. This is the opposite for the horticulture-based sectors where most of the downstream economic activity (e.g. packaging) is done within the district. The combination of the land use and the economic land use assumptions provide the economic outputs for the entire scheme. These are separated into the Far North district and the Northland region (excluding the Far North district). The total for the entire region is also summarised in the following table. Table 5 : Downstream Economic Outputs generated by KICL Dryland sheep and beef Irrigated Sheep & Beef Dairy Kiwifruit, berries & flowers Citrus, other fruit & veges Total Net Impact Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Flow on Process Far North District Revenue ($m) -$1.3 -$1.2 $0.3 $0.3 $1.9 $0.0 $84.0 $0.0 $35.0 $0 $120 -$0.9 Jobs (FTEs) GDP ($m) -$0.4 -$0.4 $0.1 $0.1 $0.4 $0 $26.8 $0 $13.9 $0 $40.8 -$0.3 HH Income ($m) -$0.2 -$0.2 $0.1 $0.0 $0.3 $0 $12.7 $0 $6.5 $0 $19 -$0.2 Region (exc FND) Revenue ($m) -$0.2 -$1.3 $0.0 $0.3 $0.2 $4.7 $4.8 $0 $2.6 $0 $7.5 $3.7 Jobs (FTEs) GDP ($m) -$0.1 -$0.4 $0.0 $0.1 $0.2 $1.1 $3.3 $0 $1.7 $0 $5.0 $0.8 HH Income ($m) -$0.1 -$0.2 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $0.6 $1.9 $0 $1.0 $0 $2.9 $0.4 Entire Northland Region Dryland sheep and beef Irrigated Sheep & Beef Dairy Kiwifruit, berries & flowers Citrus, other fruit & veges Total Net Impact Revenue ($m) -$3.9 $0.9 $6.8 $88.7 $37.5 $130.1 Jobs (FTEs) GDP ($m) -$1.2 $0.3 $1.7 $30 $15.5 $46.4 HH Income ($m) -$0.7 $0.2 $0.9 $14.6 $7.5 $22.5 The table shows that the downstream economic impact adds an additional $46.4M of Gross Domestic Product, on top of the direct impact. The downstream effect also adds another 395 jobs to the region. The 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 8

12 majority of this economic activity is generated in the district. The increase in revenue generated is over $130M and the increase in household income is over $22.5M. The change in land use has resulted in a small amount of economic activity relating to processing moving from the district to the wider region, however the overall impact is very positive. The overall economic impact is summarised in the following table. The table shows that over 95% of the economic activity generated by the KICL scheme occurs within the district. For most outputs, over half of this district economic activity results directly from the properties serviced by KICL. The flow on impact is also significant while the processing impact makes up the lowest portion. Table 6 : All Economic Outputs generated by KICL District Region (excluding Far North district) Direct Flow-on Processing District Subtotal Flow-on Processing Region Sub-Total Total Proportion of Econmic Output (%) Revenue ($m) $110 $120 -$0.9 $229 $7 $4 $11 $240 Jobs (FTEs) , ,317 GDP ($m) $59.9 $40.8 -$0.3 $100.4 $5.0 $0.8 $5.8 $106.2 HH Income ($m) $34.6 $19.4 -$0.2 $53.8 $2.9 $0.4 $3.3 $ Economic Impact from each land use sector In order to compare the key land use sectors, the proportion of each economic output from each land use is shown in the following graph. These graphs show the horticulture sectors generate the majority of the economic activity. It should however be noted that a significant portion of the horticulture employment (FTEs) is seasonal work, and is at wage rates that are often not far above the minimum wage. Figure 3 : Economic output by land use sector 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Revenue Jobs (FTEs) GDP HH Income Irrigated Sheep & Beef Dairy Kiwifruit, berries & flowers Citrus, other fruit & veges 2.3 Economic Impact Summary The increase in the economic output shows the significant economic impact that the KICL irrigation scheme has had on the local communities and Northland region. This reflects the efficiency of more productive land uses that converts water to dollars, with irrigated land producing a significantly higher economic output compared to the pre-irrigation land uses. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 9

13 Gross Domestic Product ($m) The increase in employment is estimated to be around 922 direct FTEs, with an additional 395 downstream FTEs in the district and region. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Far North District was estimated by MBIE to be $1,786M in 2013/14. The GDP generated in the district by the KICL scheme is estimated to be $100M, this is around 5.5% of the Far North districts total GDP. The contribution of $106M to the region is around 2% of the region s GDP. The contribution from each land use sector is summarised in the following graph. This shows the GDP generated by each of the main land use sectors. The graph shows that the scheme is predominately a horticulture scheme, most noticeably kiwifruit and citrus. The graph also shows that the majority of the GDP generated results directly from the farms and orchards. The flow on component is also significant, with the processing component the minor portion. Figure 4 : Summary of Gross Domestic Product by land use sector and source $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Irrigated Sheep & Beef Dairy Kiwifruit, berries & Citrus, other fruit & flowers veges Direct Flow on Process The other two economic outputs included in the economic analysis (revenue generated and household income) have also increased significantly due to the opportunities created by the KICL scheme. The results highlight the positive economic impact that the KICL scheme has had, both in the study area and on the district. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 10

14 3 Social Assessment 3.1 Overview The social impact assessment reviews several parameters from the 1981, 1991, 2001, 2006 and 2013 censuses. Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) data is also used for some parameters that are captured outside the Census counts. There are data availability limitations on the census data available between 1981 and 1996, which are discussed in the following sections. The assessment compares the social parameters in the study area, the Far North District and the Northland region. The study provides indicative analysis of how the study area has performed compared to the district and region, and how the study area has changed since the irrigation scheme was introduced. For the purpose of the social assessment, two SNZ census area units have been combined to represent the study area. These are the Kerikeri and Waitangi-Te Tii census area units from the 2001 census. These SNZ boundaries change over time and are not a perfect fit for the KICL scheme. However, the 2001 boundaries are the most suitable areas to enable efficient access and analysis of both historic and recent SNZ data. Where possible the social indicators are reported at the detailed level to show the indicators for the urban area (Kerikeri) and rural area (Waitangi - Te Tii) of the study area. Other industry and business drivers, such as tourism, are likely to have a greater impact on the social indicators in the urban area so this separation assists in estimate the impact of the KICL scheme. The two areas are shown in the map below. Figure 5 : Social Impact Assessment Urban and Rural study area Rural study area Urban study area The social impacts have been separated into the following sub-sections: People o o o Population Age demographics Households and occupied dwellings 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 11

15 o Tenure ownership and length of stay Employment opportunities o Household income o Employment profile o Occupation type o Key industry sectors o Building consent activity These social indicators are reviewed in detail in the following sections. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 12

16 3.2 Historical Background The irrigation scheme was commissioned in Census data is not readily available at the required level prior to 1981, therefore it is difficult to determine a true baseline prior to the KICL scheme. A summation of this limited data is summarised below at the regional level. The area shown is the Northland statistical area, which was used before the borough council areas were merged into the current regions and territorial local authorities. This is slightly different to the Northland region, however it provides a suitable comparison. Table 7 : Northland historical population growth Usually resident population Annual average growth rate Area to to to to 1981 Northland statistical area 86,391 93,514 96, , , % 0.6% 2.1% 1.3% The historical data shows that Northland had consistent growth throughout the 1960s and 1970s with the long term average growth rate being around 1.4% per year. 3.3 People Population The following table shows that the population growth rate in the study area is higher than the remainder of the district, the district as a whole, and the region. The rate of growth is typically highest in the rural part of the study area, most noticeably in the 1990s. This is likely to be the time when significant changes from the irrigation scheme occurred as there is typically a lag between the time secure water is provided and when the changes in land use actually occur. Over the analysis period, the proportion that the study area makes up of the district population has increased from less than 10% to nearly 20%. Table 8 : Usually resident population to 2013 Usually resident population Annual average growth rate Overall Area to to to to 2013 average annual growth rate Urban study area 2,595 3,456 4,866 5,772 6, % 3.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.9% Rural study area 1,269 1,650 3,153 3,630 3, % 6.7% 2.9% 1.4% 3.7% Study Area 3,864 5,106 8,019 9,402 10, % 4.6% 3.2% 1.4% 3.1% Remaining FNDC 35,514 42,360 46,557 46,440 45, % 0.9% -0.1% -0.3% 0.8% Far North District 39,378 47,466 54,576 55,842 55, % 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1% Northland Region 110, , , , , % 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 13

17 3.3.2 Age demographics The following age pyramids compare the proportion of residents within each five-year age group in 1981 and The first two pyramids compare the total study area (black outline graph) and the district (blue filled graph). Figure 6 : Age Demographics 1981 (Study area and District) Figure 7 : Age Demographics 2013 (Study area and District) 85 Years And Over Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 5-9 Years 0-4 Years -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% - Total Study Area - Far North District 85 Years And Over Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 5-9 Years 0-4 Years -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% - Total Study Area - Far North District The key points are: The effect of New Zealand s ageing population is evident within both the study area and the district. The proportion of people aged 65+ in both areas has increased from under 10% in 1981 to nearly 20% in This is higher than the 2013 national average of 14% indicating that the area may be popular with retirees. The proportion of working age people (16 to 64 years old) in the study area is slightly lower compared to the Far North district. The proportion of the population under 15 years old is similar in the study area and the district. This proportion of children has decreased over the analysis period from around 30% in 1981 to around 20% in The above indicators are affected by the increase in number of people aged over 65 years. The rate of growth in each age group can also be considered. The average annual rate of growth of the number of children in the study area is higher compared to the Far North District. The average annual rate of growth of the number of working age population in the study area is higher compared to the Far North District. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 14

18 The second set of age pyramids compare the rural and urban study area over the same analysis period. There are noticeable differences when comparing the urban study area (orange filled graph) and the rural study area (black outline graph). Figure 8 : Age Demographics 1981 (Urban and Rural study area) Figure 9 : Age Demographics 2013 (Urban and Rural study area) 85 Years And Over Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 5-9 Years 0-4 Years -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% - Rural Study Area - Urban Study Area 85 Years And Over Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years Years 5-9 Years 0-4 Years -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% - Rural Study Area - Urban Study Area The key points are: In 1981 the rural study area had a much higher proportion of children (under 15 years) compared to the urban study area. This has changed over the analysis period and both areas have a similar proportion in 2013, around 20%. In both the 1981 and 2013 years, the rural study area has a lower proportion of people aged over 65 years, most noticeably in In both the 1981 and 2013 years, the rural study area has a higher proportion of working age people compared to the urban study area. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 15

19 3.3.3 Households and Occupied Dwellings The following tables show that the theme for dwellings and households is similar to that of the population figures. Both parameters have increased at a faster rate in the study area compared to the district and region as a whole. Again, the rate of growth in the rural study area is typically higher than that of the urban study area. Table 9 : Number of Households to 2013 Households Annual average growth rate Overall average 1981 to 1991 to 2001 to 2006 to Area annual growth rate Urban study area 843 1,245 1,881 2,205 2, % 8.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% Rural study area ,116 1,338 1, % 14.9% 3.7% 2.8% 4.6% Study Area 1,209 1,803 2,997 3,543 4, % 10.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.9% Remaining FNDC 11,025 13,635 16,095 16,404 17, % 3.4% 0.4% 1.0% 1.4% Far North District 11,391 15,438 19,092 19,947 21, % 4.3% 0.9% 1.4% 2.0% Northland Region 33,450 42,744 50,673 54,453 58, % 3.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% Table 10 : Number of Occupied Dwellings to 2013 Occupied Dwellings Annual average growth rate Overall average 1981 to 1991 to 2001 to 2006 to Area annual growth rate Urban study area 870 1,293 1,935 2,265 2, % 4.1% 3.2% 2.1% 3.5% Rural study area ,122 1,356 1, % 6.8% 3.9% 2.1% 4.5% Study Area 1,257 1,875 3,057 3,621 4, % 5.0% 3.4% 2.1% 3.8% Remaining FNDC 10,563 14,385 16,746 17,091 17, % 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% Far North District 11,820 16,260 19,803 20,712 22, % 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% Northland Region 34,170 44,124 52,089 55,929 60, % 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 1.8% Tenure ownership The tenure data shows that the households in the study area have a higher proportion of residents that own, or part-own their home. Although this proportion has declined over time, the study area is still higher than the district and region. Again, the proportion is higher in the rural part of the study area compared to the urban study area. This decline has been more noticeable in the urban study area, whilst the ownership proportion in the rural study area has remained relatively high, around 70%. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 16

20 Table 11 :Proportion of Households that own, or part-own their home to 2013 Proportion of Households that own or part-own their home Area Urban study area 78% 76% 68% 66% 62% Rural study area 70% 69% 71% 70% 71% Study Area 75% 74% 69% 67% 65% Remaining FNDC 63% 68% 60% 58% 55% Far North District 69% 69% 61% 60% 57% Northland Region 72% 72% 65% 63% 60% Tenure length of stay at current usual residence The length of tenure data was not available in 1981 and 1991, so the following table shows only the recent (2001, 2006 and 2013) data. Comparing the length of tenure in the study area to the district shows that in the district, a higher proportion of the population has resided at the same place for over 10 years. Again, the rural study appears more stable than the urban study area, with a higher proportion being at the same residence for 5-9 years and for over 10 years. Table 12 : Tenure length of stay at current usual residence to 2013 Area Length of Tenure Urban Study Area Rural Study Area Total Study Area Far North District Northland Region 0-4 Years 60% 66% 57% 5-9 Years 20% 16% 23% Over 10 years 20% 19% 20% 0-4 Years 58% 58% 46% 5-9 Years 23% 21% 27% Over 10 years 18% 21% 27% 0-4 Years 60% 63% 53% 5-9 Years 21% 17% 25% Over 10 years 20% 20% 22% 0-4 Years 52% 53% 47% 5-9 Years 20% 18% 22% Over 10 years 29% 29% 31% 0-4 Years 53% 55% 48% 5-9 Years 19% 17% 22% Over 10 years 28% 28% 29% 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 17

21 3.4 Employment Opportunities Household Income The median household income was not available in 1981, so the analysis starts in The median household income in the study area is higher than the district and region, most noticeably in the rural study area. The table also shows that up until 2001, the rate of median income growth in the study area was higher than the district and region. The median income and rate of growth in the rural study area is higher compared to the urban study area. The highest growth rate of household income was in the early 1990s, within 10 years of the KICL being commissioned. Table 13 : Median Household Income 1991 to 2013 Median Household Income Annual average growth rate Overall average 1991 to 2001 to 2006 to Area annual growth rate Urban study area 27,000 35,665 44,402 45, % 4.5% 0.6% 1.7% Rural study area 27,900 39,253 49,312 56, % 4.7% 2.9% 2.3% Study Area 27,279 36,978 46,222 49, % 4.6% 1.5% 1.9% Far North District 21,900 28,300 37,000 42, % 5.5% 2.7% 2.1% Northland Region 24,100 30,200 40,200 46, % 5.9% 3.1% 2.1% Note the Remainder of the FNDC is not shown as the median household income of a large number of census area units cannot be accurately calculated Employment Profile The following table shows that the proportion of residents employed full time in the study area is higher than in the district. In 1981, the study area was similar to the district and region. However, over the analysis period, the proportion in full time employment in the district has decreased, most noticeably in the 1990s and early 2000s. The proportion in full time employment in the study area has remained relatively stable over this same time. The full time employment proportion is higher in the rural study area compared to the urban study area. Table 14 : Proportion Employed Full time Area Urban study area 56% 54% 57% 60% 54% Rural study area 62% 60% 62% 67% 61% Study Area 58% 56% 59% 63% 57% Remaining FNDC 55% 43% 52% 57% 52% Far North District 56% 44% 53% 58% 53% Northland Region 57% 48% 56% 60% 56% 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 18

22 3.4.3 Occupation Type This section reviews the proportion of workers in Professional Service Occupations. The job status categorisations are shown below. This industry sector information is only available from 2001 onwards. Professional service occupations Legislators, Administrators and Managers Professionals Technicians and Associate Professionals Clerks Table 15 : Proportion of workers in professional services occupations Area Urban study area 57% 60% 54% Rural study area 62% 67% 61% Study Area 59% 63% 57% Remaining FNDC 52% 57% 52% Far North District 53% 58% 53% Northland Region 56% 60% 56% Trade and non-professional service occupations Service and Sales Workers Agriculture and Fishery Workers Trades Workers Plant and Machine Operators and Assemblers Elementary Occupations The proportion of workers in Professional Service Occupations is higher in the study area compared to the rest of the district and the region. The proportion in the rural study area is slightly higher than the urban study area Key Industry Sector The industry sector employment data shown in this section is only available from The following groupings have been used to categorise the industry profile of each area. The employment figures are based on the workplace address. Primary Industry Business Social Agriculture Manufacturing Education Forestry Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Health and Community Services Fishing Construction Cultural and Recreational Services Nursery and Floriculture Production Wholesale Trade Personal and Other Services Vegetable, Fruit and Tree Nut Growing Retail Trade Other Crop Growing Mining Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants Transport and Storage Communication Services Finance and Insurance Property and Business Services Government Administration and Defence 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 19

23 The table below shows that the number of workers in the Primary Industry sector has declined in all areas over the last recent analysis period. The rate of decline in the study is less significant than the district and region. The workers in the Business and Social sectors have experienced strong growth over this period. The growth rate in the study area, both urban and rural, is higher compared to the district and region. The Primary Industry workers in the study area continue to make up around 15% of the total primary industry workers in the Far North district. This proportion has increased slightly over the recent analysis period. It should be noted that the employment data is based on the census usually resident population so therefore may not include some temporary, migrant or seasonal workers. Table 16 : Workers by Industry Sector Industry Sector Primary Industry Business Social Area Average annual growth rate 2001 to 2013 Primary Business Social Industry Urban study area ,449 2,160 2, % 3.3% 4.5% Rural study area % 5.6% 7.6% Study Area ,773 2,643 2, , % 3.7% 4.9% Remaining FNDC 2,832 2,460 2,553 6,507 7,455 7,650 3,132 3,657 4, % 1.4% 3.1% Far North District 3,354 2,934 3,054 8,280 10,098 10,407 3,738 4,479 5, % 1.9% 3.4% Northland Region 8,673 7,647 7,830 26,157 31,398 32,586 11,091 12,990 15, % 1.8% 3.1% The total number of workers is shown in the table below. The study area has grown at a higher rate that the district and region, most noticeably in the early 2000s. Table 17 : Total Workers Total Workers Area Average annual growth rate 2001 to 2006 to Urban study area 2,226 3,063 3, % 1.0% Rural study area , % 2.4% Study Area 2,901 3,939 4, % 1.4% Remaining FNDC 12,471 13,572 14, % 1.2% Far North District 15,372 17,511 19, % 1.2% Northland Region 45,921 52,035 56, % 1.2% 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 20

24 Building Consent Value ($m) Building Consent Activity The number and value of building consents filed is a useful measure of economic related activity. It should be noted that the actual construction of consented buildings may lag a few years behind the consent being approved. There may also be some consents that do not lead to construction. Non-building construction consents have been excluded from the analysis. The following graph shows the total value of building consents between 1991 and The building consent data is not available at the required level prior to The areas shown are the urban study area (blue), the rural study area (red) and the remaining areas in the district (green). Figure 10 : Building Consent (New) Value 1991 to 2015 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Remai nder FN DC Rural Study Area Urban Study Area Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 21

25 Building Consent Value ($m) Building Consent Value ($m) The key points are: Around one third of the total building consent value over the analysis period is in the study area. This is higher than the 10% to 20% of the population that live within the study area. The values are in nominal $ s, however even allowing for inflation, the graph shows a marked increase in activity during the mid to late 1990s and the early 2000s. Building consents for new builds within the study area are shown in the following two graphs. The building consents are grouped into the following sectors: Residential - dwellings and domestic outbuildings. Primary industry - farm buildings including barns, yards, implement/dairy/wool/storage sheds. Business - Hostels, Boarding Houses, Hotels, Motels, Offices, Administration Buildings, Miscellaneous Buildings, Factories and Industrial Buildings, Storage Buildings, Shops, Restaurants, Taverns. Social - Hospitals, Nursing Homes, Educational Buildings, Social, Cultural and Religious Buildings. Figure 11 : Building Consent (New) Value URBAN study area by land use sector Figure 12 : Building Consent (New) Value RURAL study area by land use sector Business Primary Industry Residential Social Business Primary Industry Residential Social 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 22

26 The building consent values are also summarised in the following table grouped in 5 yearly sub-totals. Table 18 : Summary of Building Consent Value in the Study Area by Land Use group Urban Study Area ($m) Rural Study Area ($m) Total Study Area ($m) ($m) Year Group Business Primary Industry Residential Social TOTAL Business Primary Industry Residential Social TOTAL Business Primary Industry Residential Social TOTAL 1991 to to to to to TOTAL The values are in nominal $ s, however even allowing for inflation the graph shows a marked increase in activity over the past 10 years. The key findings are: Most of the building consent value in the Business sector (87%) has been in the urban study area. Around two thirds of the building consent value in the Residential and Social sectors has been in the urban study area. Nearly two thirds of the building consent value in the Primary Industry sector has been in the rural study area. Aside from a slowdown in recent times, most likely linked to the global financial slowdown, there has been a noticeable increase in building consent value in the mid 1990s and early-mid 2000s. An alternative comparison that shows the level of building consent activity in the study area, is the average annual building consent value per usually resident population. This is shown in the following table over five-year periods. The table shows the value of building consent activity is much higher in the study area compared to the rest of the district. Table 19 : Average annual building consent value per usually resident population Area 1991 to to to to to 2015 Urban study area $2,200 $2,500 $4,200 $4,500 $3,000 Rural study area $1,600 $2,200 $2,900 $4,500 $1,800 Study Area $2,000 $2,400 $3,700 $4,500 $2,600 Remaining FNDC $700 $900 $1,600 $1,900 $900 Far North District $800 $1,100 $1,900 $2,400 $1, Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 23

27 3.5 Social Impact Summary The social impact assessment shows that: The study area has a higher rate of growth in the resident population, households and occupied dwellings compared to the district and the region. The study area has a higher average annual rate of growth in the number of working age people compared to the Far North District. The study area has a higher proportion of people that own or part own their homes compared to the district average. The rural study area has a higher proportion of long term tenure compared to the district average. In both the urban study area and the rural study, the growth in resident population was highest in the 1990s. Some of this positive growth can be attributed to the effect that the KICL scheme has had on the district. The other key findings include: Higher household income in the study area compared to the Far North district and Northland region. Higher proportion of the population in full-time employment. Higher proportion of workers in professional service occupations. The average annual growth rate in the number of workers in the study area is higher compared to the rest of the district. There has also been an increase in building consent activity, both in the study area and the district, over the past 25 years. Over this time, the building consent activity per usually resident population is much higher in the study area compared to the rest of the district. The above findings indicate that the KICL scheme has had a positive impact on both the study area and the district and region as a whole. 14 Sept 2016 REV 3.0 Page 24