National Climate Change Issues -

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation Workshop for Planning Practitioners National Climate Change Issues - From Setting the Scene to Toolkit Dr Stefanie Roth Australian Greenhouse Office Department of the Environment and Water Resources

2 Outline AGO programs AGO current projects Toolkit Outlook

3 Australian Climate Change Science Programme $30.7m, partnership CSIRO & BoM Understanding key drivers of climate change in Australia Ocean processes, atmosphere (aerosols, clouds), terrestrial carbon cycle, detection & attribution Climate modelling ACCESS - national capacity (world competitive), earth system, AR4 Climate change, climate variability and extreme events ENSO, extreme rainfall, fire risk, cyclones, hailstorms Regional climate projections Resolution relevant to decision making, new generation International research collaboration Communication and coordination Underpin impact assessment, adaptation strategies

4 National Climate Change Adaptation Programme Announced in May 2004 Budget $14.2 million over 4 years Objectives include: Advise Government on policy issues Build capacity Engage stakeholders Integrate climate change impacts and adaptation considerations

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6 Projects: Applying Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Management Exposure Sensitivity Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

7 Biodiversity Vulnerability Assessment Potential Impacts for some of Australia s iconic biodiversity Coral reefs: bleaching an annual event by Alpine areas: 10-40% less snow-cover by 2020 Rainforests: 50% reduction in habitat for endemic vertebrates for 1 o C warming Kakadu wetlands: exposed to saltwater intrusion from sealevel rise Macquarie Marshes: 20-40% less wetland vegetation by 2030, leading to reduced bird breeding

8 Constraints to adaptation for biodiversity (Hughes, 2007) Low topography 99% of continent less than 90% less scope for altitudinal migration Climate strong oceanic influence ENSO; low and unpredictable rainfall (33% arid, 75% semi arid); rid areas most impacts Soils low fertility not much work but could be constraint to adaptation Fire Existing stressors land-use change, invasive species, water extraction, dryland salinity, habitat fragmentation Nature of the biota many species have narrow climatic and geographic ranges e.g. many eucalypts

9 Sensitivity of Coast > 80% of Australia s population top tourist destinations, world and national heritage sites seven capital cities 60+ seachange shires/councils the conduit to our export economy

10 Sensitivity of Coast ~1000 estuaries - many modified by human activity globally significant ecosystems eg. mangroves, coral reefs, seagrasses a significant percentage of the rain that falls on the whole continent fisheries & aquaculture industries

11 Towards a National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Characteristics nationally consistent data or product, usable by key agencies broadscale maps of impacts showing vulnerability levels selected regional/location-scale maps expert assessments of vulnerability scenario driven

12 National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Specialist consultancies Expert technical workshop Stakeholder workshop Commissioned national research eg. BoM, CSIRO Cross-jurisdictional engagement and policy

13 Risk Management Guidance Simple practical guide based on the Australian standard (based on pilot studies) Local government Gas and electricity supplier Water corporation State government department Climate change scenarios

14 Process overview AS 4360 PREPARATION WORKSHOP TREATMENT Consult & communicate Climate change scenarios Establish the context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Key elements Identify the risks & opportunities What can happen? How could it happen? Analyse the risks & opportunities Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Significance Evaluate Evaluate risks & opportunities Rank risks & opportunities Screen out minor issues Treat the risks & exploit the opportunities Identify options Select the best Develop plans Implement Monitor and review Use and elaborate on existing risk management processes!

15 Integrated Assessment of Settlements Projects Combining insights from several disciplines Partnerships with State/Territory Governments, Local Government bodies, research institutions, communities Stakeholder driven Transferable outcomes

16 Integrated Assessment of Settlements Projects Human Settlements Western Port, Victoria Clarence Foreshores, Tasmania Canberra and Region and Rural towns of Victoria Sydney coastal areas Gold Coast Other sectors Great Barrier Reef region South Eastern Australia Climate Initiative Southwest WA

17 Western Port, Victoria Project Partners: Western Port Greenhouse Alliance (Bass Coast, Casey, Cardinia, Frankston, Mornington Peninsula) Marsden Jacob Associates CSIRO Department of Sustainability and the Environment Regional Development Company

18 Western Port, Victoria Focus on high priority cross-sectoral areas: housing and accommodation infrastructure siting and planning in coastal areas and urban growth corridors Outputs: Climate impact and Socio-economic scenarios - May 2007 Risk assessment report for the WPGA region Framework for regional and local response

19 Clarence Foreshores, Tasmania Project Partners: Clarence City Council Department of Primary Industries and Water Focus physical, economical, social and environmental impacts of sea level rise

20 Clarence Foreshores, Tasmania Outputs: Risk level zoning in potentially vulnerable areas mid 2007 Identification of response options Community consultation and awareness campaign Future planning control options for infrastructure and property development Report for Integration into local and State Emergency Management Plans

21 Settlements - Moderate Inland and Tropical North (ACT, Queanbeyan, Cooma-Monaro Shire, City of Greater Bendigo, Darwin) Project Partners: ANU Fenner School of Environmental Studies ACT Government NT Government Queanbeyan City Council City of Greater Bendigo Cooma-Monaro Shire Council

22 Settlements Moderate Inland and Tropical North Focus and outputs developing advanced understanding of climate impacts on urban systems jurisdictional aspects of managing vulnerable assets and services approaches for developing integrated adaptation strategies identification of response capacities and remedial measures

23 Sydney - Coastal areas Project partners: Sydney Coastal Councils Group (Botany Bay, Hornsby, Leichhardt, Manly, Mosman, North Sydney, Pittwater, Randwick, Rockdale, Sutherland, City of Sydney, Warringah, Waverley, Willoughby and Woollahra) CSIRO

24 Sydney - Coastal areas Focus and outputs: Local capacities to adapt to potential climate change impacts Vulnerability mapping through integrating modelling and local knowledge of vulnerable infrastructure, networks and systems mid 2007 Assessment of adaptive capacity Three local councils as case studies Assessment of transferability Evaluation of overall process of communicating climate risk within local governments and development of general principles

25 Gold Coast Urban Region Project Partners: Urban Research Program, Griffith University Gold Coast City Council Queensland Office of Urban Management

26 Gold Coast Urban Region Focus on: understanding interaction between climate change and health impacts in Australian cities assessing urban adaptability and response, and governance arrangements focussing on o health infrastructures and services planning options o urban and regional planning and management

27 Gold Coast Urban Region Outputs Development of a quantitative model to describe the urban structure, form and function of the study settlements Health impact assessment at the sub-regional scale and identification of adaptation strategies and assessment of mitigation potential Assessment of adaptive capacity of governance arrangements related to the built environment, including o building regulations, o structure plans, o land use controls and o regional/metropolitan strategies

28 Cairns and Great Barrier Reef Project Partners: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy Queensland EPA

29 Cairns and Great Barrier Reef Focus: Assess the environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change via water management in the CGBR region; Identify adaptation options relevant to water related issues in the region; Provide information to planners and decision-makers to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies; Demonstrate a replicable method for an integrated assessment; and Understand the strengths, weaknesses, costs and benefits of this approach

30 Cairns and Great Barrier Reef Project Outputs Tools for assessing the impacts of climate change on key sectors in the region, including models for land use and socio-economic change, spatial vulnerability and hazard maps Assessment of adaptation options, including cost-benefits analysis A system for monitoring the impacts of climate change and the implemented adaptation strategies Implementation of a strategy for engaging with stakeholders in the region to communicate the results of the study and promote adaptation to climate change

31 South Eastern Australia Project Partners: Murray Darling Basin Commission Dept of Sustainability and Environment (Vic) CSIRO Bureau of Meteorology Managing Climate Variability Programme Australian Greenhouse Office

32 South Eastern Australia Focus on: Investigating the causes and impacts of climate change and climate variability across South Eastern Australia Outputs Characterisation and attribution of current climate High resolution climate projections and impacts on water availability Seasonal forecast

33 Southwest WA Project Partner: Department of Agriculture, Western Australia

34 Southwest WA Focus Developing an integrated assessment of climate change in southwest Western Australia to provide a framework for adaptation, and to develop techniques for regional climate responses in other regions of Australia and overseas.

35 Southwest WA Project outputs A desktop analysis of how, when and why activities in the South West adjusted to climate change experienced during the period 1960 to 2000 Consultation with key stakeholders regarding climate change experiences during the period 1960 to 2000 Report summarizing findings and guidance for the Phase 2 of the project and for other integrated regional impact and assessment initiatives

36 The Adaptation Toolkit: Climate trends ( Climate projections and scenarios ( Impact and vulnerability information Adaptation options Delivery through a one stop shop website of the new Adaptation Centre

37 Vulnerability Atlas of Australian Settlements Easily accessible and informative resource on the specific sensitivities of Australian cities and settlements to potential climate change impacts Project completed in May 2007 Outputs, including spatial data, will be made available on the Australian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation website

38 Outlook: COAG National Climate Change Adaptation Framework COAG Climate Change Adaptation Framework Key sectors include: Buildings, settlements and infrastructure Coastal regions Natural ecosystems (biodiversity) Water supply Agriculture, forestry and fisheries Human health, tourism & emergency services Melbourne Feb 2005

39 Australian Greenhouse Office SCIENCE & ADAPTATION Impacts and Adaptation E-bulletin Subscribe online