The future of global oil and gas. APPEC 2016, Singapore, 6 September Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist

Transcription

1 The future of global oil and gas APPEC 16, Singapore, 6 September Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist

2 Reform Several futures are possible 13 Renewal Rivalry Rivalry, Reform, Renewal* - but the world is twice as rich and more efficient Commodity prices Real Jun 16, indexed, Feb 97= Energy intensity Index, 199= World GDP and energy demand Index, 199= 8 Brent NBP HH Coal 1 Reform Renewal Rivalry 5 Reform Renewal Rivalry Sources: Source: IEA Thomson (history), Statoil Reuters (projections) Datastream *Rivalry: Geopolitical uncertainty, regional conflicts; Reform: COP21 followed up and tightened; Renewal: Energy revolution delivering emissions consistent with 2 -C target 2

3 A strong trend affecting economics and energy All growth in energy demand in emerging economies, in particular in Asia The global population centre is in Asia Each small square represents 1 million people World energy demand per region Bn toe Rest of world India China OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD Americas Source: BigThink, IEA, Statoil (projections) 3

4 Reform 4 Renewal 4 Rivalry Reform 4 Renewal 4 Rivalry Speeding up the change in global energy mix with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift % 8% 6% 4% New RES Biofuels and waste Hydro Nuclear Bn toe 15 1 % % Gas Oil Solid fuels 5 Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 4

5 Technology shift for light duty vehicles in all scenarios, and a revolution in Renewal Sales Light Duty Vehicles Millions Light Duty Vehicle fleet composition Billions Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for LDVs % 14 Other Electric vehicles Gasoline 13 Plug-in hybrids Diesel 4 3 Other Electric vehicles Gasoline 13 Plug-in hybrids Diesel 4 Electricity Biomass Gas Oil Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 5

6 Fuel mix change in electricity Large investments in new renewables required, especially in Renewal Electricity generation mix % Solar and wind generation capacity GW Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Solar Wind , , 5, 4, 4 3, 2, 1, 6

7 Other sectors are more challenging to change and demand here will grow as the economy grows Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for Transport excluding LDVs Bn toe Coal Oil Gas Biomass Electricity Fuel mix in Final Energy Demand for Residential, Commercial & Industrial sectors Bn toe Coal Oil Gas Biomass New RES Electricity Heat Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 7

8 Huge investments needed in oil, gas and renewable electricity to replace production and ensure sustainability New oil production 15-4 Mbd New gas production 15-4 Bcm Incremental New RES production 15-4 Thousand TWh 15 Rivalry add-on Reform add-on Renewal add-on Potential legacy production Min legacy production History RenXX RefXX RivXX 7, 6, 5, 4, Reform add-on Rivalry add-on Renewal add-on Potential legacy production Min legacy production History RenXX RefXX RivXX Hist Renewal add-on Reform add-on Rivalry add-on Legacy production History RenXX RivXX 5 3, 2, , Source: Statoil 8

9 Asian oil and gas demand will grow Depending on scenario but non-energy demand growth is significant Change in oil demand 13-4 Mbd Change in gas demand 13-4 Bcm Industry Residential Other Stationary Transport Non-Energy Power & Heat Other Transformation Reform Renewal Rivalry - -3 Reform Renewal Rivalry Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 9

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