Assesing the Impacts by Pan-European TIMES Model

Transcription

1 Assesing the Impacts by Pan-European TIMES Model Markus Blesl Universität Stuttgart MODEDR Conference Praha 24 th November Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Universität Stuttgart

2 Categories of energy models Energy Models Bottom-up models Top-down models Simulation Optimization Computational General Equilibrium Econometric Characteristics: i. Sectoral coverage or Entire energy system ii. Single region or Multi regions iii. Short term or Long-term iv. Recursive dynamic or Perfect foresight Characteristics: i. Single region or Multi regions ii. Recursive dynamic or Perfect foresight Attempt to link model types Integrated Assessment Models Climate Models Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 2 / 58

3 Goals of the TIMES development PERSEUS EFOM-ENV PRIMES LEAP MESSAGE MARKAL - Restrictions in modelling of load curves - Changes the model horizon difficult + Modelling flexible processes TIMES - Load curves only for electricity and district heat - Changing the model horizon difficult - Rigid Processes + All processes and technologies depictable on subannual level + Any desired time resolution possible + Changes in the model horizon possible (distinction between input and model data) + Flexible process description + Easy extension of model features Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 3 / 58

4 ETSAP IEA (International Energy Agency) Implementing Agreements Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) Implementing Agreement Implementing Agreement Operating Agent Technology oriented analysis of energy system models with focus on greenhouse gas abatement strategies: - Analysis of national and multinational strategies - Technology data review Outreach - Model development (MARKAL TIMES) Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 4 / 58

5 Development By ETSAP Implementation in GAMS Applications of the model IER: - Ostfildern (local) - Baden-Württemberg - Bavaria - Saxonia - Hessen - Germany (TIMES-D) - European electricity and gas sector model (TIMES-EG) - European energy system model (TIMES PanEU) - Global model (ETSAP-TIAM) Other places: - Finland (VTT Helsinki) - Belgium (KUL Leuven) - Italy (Turin) - South Africa model Village model (ERC Cape Town) - EU-NEEDS project - Global models (EFDA ETSAP- TIAM) Methodology Bottom-up Model Perfect competition Perfect foresight Optimization (LP/MIP/NLP) Min/Max Objective function s.t. Equations Constraints Decision Variables <=> Solution Input parameters TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) Advanced Features/Variants Elastic demands Endogeneous learning Discrete capacity expansion Macroeconomic linkage Climate extension Stochastic programming Alternative objective functions Multi-criteria optimization Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 5 / 58

6 Fundamental features of TIMES Model structure i. Flexible time horizon ii. iii. User-defined time slice resolution within a year Multi-regional Model formulation i. Partial Equilibrium Model ii. iii. Technology description: 1. Single process type with access to all model features 2. Vintaged technology properties 3. Transformation eqn with overall and commodity-specific efficiencies Objective function: 1. Different treatment of technology investments based on investment lead time 2. Other opimization functions than total system costs can be defined by modeller User constraints i. Framework to formulate virtually any linear relationship between decision variables Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 6 / 58

7 Reference energy system (simplified) Primary energy supply Wind Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Biomass Conversion sector Coal processing Coke Diesel Electricity District Heat Gas Gasoline LH2 Steam End-use sectors Residential Gas heating Oil heating Warm water Room heat Lignite resources Refinery Elc. heating Local heat grid Oil resources Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Gas import Residual wood Gas processing Elec sector Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Gas CC PP Wind converter CHP sector Coal CHP Coal CHP Gas water boiler Elc. water boiler Elc. heat pump Commercial Room heat boilers Process heat boilers Warm water boilers Industry Industrial boilers Process heat Warm water NPV Room heat Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Biomass CC CHP Transport Gasoil car PKM TKM Area Wind Electrolysis Gasification CH2 Liquefication Gasoline car LH2 car Busses Trucks Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 7 / 58

8 Horizontal linkages: Technology chains Coal washed Coal power Electricity HV CO 2 Electricity MV Electricity LV Appliances Coal imports Domestic mining Coal transport Supercritical coal plant Grid HV & Transf. Grid MV & Transf. Lighting Urban trains Backward Loops Industry ε η SPC FLO COL = FLO η SPC FLO COL = FLO FLO = FLO COL COL CO 2 ε COL FLO COL = FLO ACT = FLO ACT = ACT CO 2 ε η SPC FLO COL = FLO FLO = FLO COL COL CO 2 ε η SPC FLO COL = FLO FLO = FLO COL COL CO 2 ε η SPC FLO COL = FLO FLO = FLO COL COL CO 2 ε η SPC FLO COL = FLO FLO = FLO COL COL CO 2 ε η SPC FLO COL = FLO η SPC FLO COL = FLO COL η FLO COL = FLO CO 2 SPC FLO COL = FLO ε COL η FLO COL = FLO CO 2 SPC FLO COL = FLO ε ACT = FLO COL FLO COL = FLO CO 2 ACT FLO = = FLO FLO ACT ACT = FLO ACT = FLO ACT = FLO ACT COL α CAP COL CO 2 = FLO FLO ACT = FLO α CAP ACT α CAP ACT ACT α CAP ACT α CAP ACT α CAP ACT = FLO α CAP α CAP ACT α CAP FLO = FLODEM FLO = FLODEM FLO = FLODEM FLO = FLODEM FLO = FLODEM ACT α CAP ACT ε Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 8 / 58

9 Vertical linkages: Competition Coal washed Coal power Electricity HV CO 2 Electricity MV Electricity LV Appliances Domestic mining Coal imports Coal transport Natural gas Supercritical coal plant (exst) Ultrasupercritical coal plant (new) Natural gas GT (exist) Grid HV & Transf. Grid MV & Transf. Lighting Urban trains Industry Lignite Natural gas CC (new) Supercritical lignite plant (exst) Supercritical lignite plant (new) Competing options to produce electricity: between technologies between old and new plants Influenced by: Technology costs Efficiencies Emission factors Fuel prices Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 9 / 58

10 Vertical linkages: Substitution Primary energy supply Wind Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Biomass Conversion sector Coal processing Coke Diesel Electricity District Heat Gas Gasoline LH2 Steam End-use sectors Residential Gas heating Oil heating Warm water Room heat Lignite resources Oil resources Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Gas import Residual wood Refinery Gas processing Elec sector Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Gas CC PP Wind converter CHP sector Coal CHP Coal CHP Elc. heating Local heat grid Gas water boiler Elc. water boiler Elc. heat pump Commercial Room heat boilers Process heat boilers Warm water boilers Industry Industrial boilers Process heat Warm water GDP Substitution options Room heat Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Biomass CC CHP Transport Gasoil car PKM TKM Area Wind Electrolysis Gasification CH2 Liquefication Gasoline car LH2 car Busses Trucks Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 10 / 58

11 Interdependencies in the energy system At optimal solution: Equilibrium between electricity supply and demand Conversion Changes in Primary the system (e.g. phase-out of nuclear) sector yield new equilibrium energy e.g.: 1) Missing supply nuclear substituted by coal (or natural Coal processing gas renewables in CO Lignite resources 2 reduction scenario) Refinery 2) Increase in electricity price (and CO 2 certificate price) 3) Substitution of electricity in the end-use sectors Oil resources Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Gas import Residual wood Wind Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Biomass Gas processing Elec sector Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Gas CC PP Wind converter CHP sector Coal CHP Coal CHP Coke Electricity Diesel District Heat Gas Gasoline LH2 Steam End-use sectors Residential Gas heating Oil heating Elc. heating Local heat grid Gas water boiler Elc. water boiler Elc. heat pump Commercial Room heat boilers Process heat boilers Warm water boilers Industry Industrial boilers Process heat Warm water Room heat Warm water Room heat GDP Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Biomass CC CHP Transport Gasoil car PKM TKM Area Wind Electrolysis Gasification CH2 Liquefication Gasoline car LH2 car Busses Trucks Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 11 / 58

12 Interdependencies in the energy system Primary energy supply Wind Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Biomass Conversion sector Coal processing Coke Electricity Diesel District Heat Gas Gasoline LH2 Steam End-use sectors Residential Gas heating Oil heating Warm water Room heat Lignite resources Refinery Elc. heating Local heat grid Oil resources Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Gas import Residual wood Gas processing Elec sector Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Gas CC PP Wind converter CHP sector Coal CHP Coal CHP Gas water boiler Elc. water boiler Elc. heat pump Commercial Room heat boilers Process heat boilers Warm water boilers Industry Industrial boilers Process heat Warm water GDP Room heat Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Biomass CC CHP Transport Gasoil car PKM TKM Area Wind Electrolysis Gasification CH2 Liquefication Gasoline car LH2 car Busses Trucks Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 12 / 58

13 Dynamic model Model horizon Period Milestoneyear Primary energy supply Wind Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Biomass Conversion sector Coal processing Coke Electricity District Heat Diesel Wind Gasoline Hard coal Gas Lignite LH2 Oil Steam Natural gas Primary energy supply Biomass End-use sectors Conversion Residential sector Gas heating Coal Oil heating processing Warm Coke water Primary energy supply District Heat Diesel Wind Gasoline Hard coal Gas Lignite LH2 Oil Steam Room Electricity heat Natural gas Biomass End-use sectors Conversion Residential sector Gas heating Coal Oil heating processing Warm Coke water Primary energy supply District Heat Diesel Wind Gasoline Hard coal Gas Lignite LH2 Oil Steam Room Electricity heat Natural gas Biomass End-use sectors Conversion Residential sector Gas heating Coal Oil heating processing Warm Coke water Primary energy supply District Heat Diesel Wind Gasoline Hard coal Gas Lignite LH2 Oil Steam Room Electricity heat Natural gas Biomass End-use sectors Conversion Residential sector Gas heating Coal Oil heating processing Warm Coke water Primary energy supply District Heat Diesel Wind Gasoline Hard coal Gas Lignite LH2 Oil Steam Room Electricity heat Natural gas Biomass End-use sectors Conversion Residential sector Gas heating Coal Oil heating processing Warm Coke water Room Electricity heat District Heat Diesel Gasoline Gas LH2 Steam End-use sectors Residential Gas heating Oil heating Warm water Room heat Lignite resources Refinery Lignite resources Elc. heating Refinery Lignite resources Elc. heating Refinery Lignite resources Elc. heating Refinery Lignite resources Elc. heating Refinery Lignite resources Elc. heating Refinery Elc. heating Local heat grid Local heat grid Local heat grid Local heat grid Local heat grid Local heat grid Oil resources Gas processing Oil resources Gas Gas water processing boiler Oil resources Gas Gas water processing boiler Oil resources Gas Gas water processing boiler Oil resources Gas Gas water processing boiler Oil resources Gas Gas water processing boiler Gas water boiler Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Elec sector Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Gas CC PP Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Elc. water boiler Elec sector Elc. heat pump Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Commercial Room Gas heat CC boilers PP Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Process heat Warm water Room heat Elc. water boiler Elec sector Elc. heat pump Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Commercial Room Gas heat CC boilers PP Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Process heat Warm water Room heat Elc. water boiler Elec sector Elc. heat pump Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Commercial Room Gas heat CC boilers PP Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Process heat Warm water Room heat Elc. water boiler Elec sector Elc. heat pump Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Commercial Room Gas heat CC boilers PP Oil import Coal resources Coal import Gas resources Process heat Warm water Room heat Elc. water boiler Elec sector Elc. heat pump Coal cond. PP Lignite cond. PP Coal IGCC PP Commercial Room Gas heat CC boilers PP Process heat Warm water Room heat Elc. water boiler Elc. heat pump Commercial Room heat boilers Process heat Warm water Room heat Gas import Wind converter Gas import Process Wind heat converter boilers Gas import Process Wind heat converter boilers Gas import Process Wind heat converter boilers Gas import Process Wind heat converter boilers Gas import Process Wind heat converter boilers Process heat boilers Residual wood CHP sector Coal CHP Coal CHP Residual wood Warm water boilers CHP sector Coal CHP Industry Industrial Coal boilers CHP GDP Residual wood Warm water boilers CHP sector Coal CHP Industry Industrial Coal boilers CHP GDP Residual wood Warm water boilers CHP sector Coal CHP Industry Industrial Coal boilers CHP GDP Residual wood Warm water boilers CHP sector Coal CHP Industry Industrial Coal boilers CHP GDP Residual wood Warm water boilers CHP sector Coal CHP Industry Industrial Coal boilers CHP GDP Warm water boilers Industry Industrial boilers GDP Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Biomass CC CHP Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Transport Biomass CC CHP Gasoil car PKM TKM Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Transport Biomass CC CHP Gasoil car PKM TKM Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Transport Biomass CC CHP Gasoil car PKM TKM Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Transport Biomass CC CHP Gasoil car PKM TKM Area PV Solarthermal Energy crops Gas CC CHP Transport Biomass CC CHP Gasoil car PKM TKM Transport Gasoil car PKM TKM Area Wind CH2 Area Wind Gasoline car CH2 Area Wind Gasoline car CH2 Area Wind Gasoline car CH2 Area Wind Gasoline car CH2 Area Wind Gasoline car CH2 Gasoline car LH2 car LH2 car LH2 car LH2 car LH2 car LH2 car Electrolysis Gasification Liquefication Electrolysis Busses Gasification Trucks Liquefication Electrolysis Busses Gasification Trucks Liquefication Electrolysis Busses Gasification Trucks Liquefication Electrolysis Busses Gasification Trucks Liquefication Electrolysis Busses Gasification Trucks Liquefication Busses Trucks Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 13 / 58

14 Objective function: List of cost components Construction Operation Decommissioning Discounted sum of the annual costs minus revenues: + Investment costs + Costs for sunk material during construction time + Variable costs + Fix operating and maintenance costs + Imports + Taxes + Surveillance costs + Decommissioning costs Operation Decommissioning Construction - Subsidies - Exports - Recuperation of sunk material - Salvage value Distinction between technical and economic lifetime General discount rate (discounting to base year) and technology specific discount rate (calculating annuities) Investment and decommissioning lead-times Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 14 / 58

15 Model formulation of TIMES Input data Cost data Efficiencies Full load hours Emission factors Demand Objective function: Model equations (auto-generated): Minimizing discounted system costs = Sum of Import-/Extraction costs variable and fix OM costs Investment costs Transformation relationship ( e.g. Efficiency relationship for power plant) Energy and emission balances Share constraints on input/output side of technology ( e.g. max. ratio of electricity to heat for CHP) Capacity-activity constraint ( e. g. available capacity limits elec gen of power plant) Decision variables Results Energy/Emission flows New capacities System Costs Prices Cumulated constraints over time ( e. g. available fossil resources) Peaking constraint ( Ensuring reserve capacity at peak load) Load curve equations Storage equations (e.g. pump storage) Scenario specific constraints ( e. g. bound on CO2 emissions quota for renewables) Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 15 / 58

16 The Pan-European model (TIMES PanEU) PEM is a 30 region (EU 27 + NO CH IS) partial equilibrium energy systems technology oriented bottom-up model. Time horizon: time slices (4 seasonal 3 day level) GHG: CO2 CH4 N2O SF6 Others pollutants: SO2 NOx CO NMVOC PM2.5 PM10 The database integrates results of LCI and specific Damages with the aim to integrate the treatment of Externalities in the optimization procedure Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 16 / 58

17 The Pan-European Model (2) SUPPLY: Explicit modeling of reserves resources exploration and conversion Electricity: 1. Public electricity plants CHP plants heating plants auto-producers 2. Country specific renewable potential and availability (onshore / offshore wind geothermal biomass solar hydro) 3. Country specific characterization of conversion technologies (in-use and new) DEMAND: is based on a simulation routine linked with GEM-E3 /NEWAGE 1. Agriculture 2. Industry: Energy intensive industry (iron and steel aluminum copper ammonia and chlorine cement glass lime pulp and paper) Other industries 3. Residential and Commercial: Space heating/cooling water heating appliances and others) 4. Transport: Passenger Freight (different transport modes: cars buses motorcycles trucks passenger trains freight trains) Air Navigation. 5. Country specific characterization of end-use technologies Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 17 / 58

18 Regional Coverage Pan-European TIMES model Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 18 / 58

19 The Environment of the Energy Transformation Sector in TIMES PanEU Fuel Production Energy Transformation Energy Consumption Reserves quantities and costs of domestic energy carriers Import and export cost potential curves Refiniery processes Electricity district heat and process heat transformation Three electricity grid levels with losses and transmission costs Public main activity producers and industrial autoproducers Sektors: Residential Commercial Industry Transport Upstream Demand for effective energy and production goods and transport demand Demand projection from equilibrium model Emissions of fuel transformation Endogenous electricity trade Energy saving potentials Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 19 / 58

20 Regions in TIMES PanEU and planned Interconnection Extensions European Priority Projects P in Year MW DE DK MW 950 MW 600 MW 800 MW 110 MW 250 MW AT IT PL ES CZ SI LT FR MW 1320 MW 1400 MW 500 MW 700 MW 900 MW 1000 MW BE NL FR UK MW 1400 MW 1200 MW 700 MW 1800 MW 1800 MW 600 MW 2330 MW 200 MW Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 20 / 58

21 Interregional Electricity Trade in TIMES PanEU Endogenous trade between Regions Bidirectionale trading processes no simultaneous import and export between regions in the same time slice Interconnection capacities according to ETSO Trade driven by marginal electricity generation costs per time slice and transmission costs (incl. losses) Limitted trade in peak time slice since import capacities not secure (auctioning of interconnection capacities at various European borders) Exogenous trade with non-eu countries e. g. Poland Ukraine constant trade quantities over modeling horizon at 2005 level Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 21 / 58

22 Energy Generation Units in TIMES PanEU Existing Capacities Clusterd by fuel and technologies for public and industrial generation units Installed net Capacity [MW] Country specific decommissioning curves Other Wind Natural Gas Oil Lignite Coal Nuclear Hydro Decommissioning Curve EU-27+CH+NO+IS Commissioning Capacities Technology database for public and industrial power plants CHP and heating plants Commisssioning of electricity gerneration units in industry sector as CHP plants with coupled production of process heat and steam Country specific restrictions concerning fuel use and unit size of power plants Nuclear phase out in DE BE SE ES NL as well as commissining of new capacity only in coutries with existing nuclear capacity (except PL) Minimum electricity quantities from renewable energy resources according national policies Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 22 / 58

23 Technology Database New Public Fossil Power Plants (excerpt) Hard Coal Lignite Natural Gas PCC condensing 350 / 600 / 800 MW PCC CCS Post Combustion 560 MW IGCC 450 MW IGCC CCS 425 MW Oxyfuel 600 MW Extraction Condensing CHP 200 / 500 MW IGCC CHP with CCS PCC condensing 965 MW PCC CCS Post Combustion 560 MW IGCC 450 MW IGCC CCS 425 MW Oxyfuel 760 MW Extraction Condensing CHP 500 MW CC 420 / 800 MW CC with CCS 475 MW Gas Turbine 130 MW CC CHP 50 / 100 / 200 MW CC CHP with CCS 200 MW Internal Combustion small CHP 0.01 / 0.2 / 2 MW Fuel Cell MCFC 0.5 MW Fuel Cell SOFC 1 MW Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 23 / 58

24 CO 2 Storage Potentials of selected European Countries Oil Fields 1 Gas Fields 1 Aquifers 1 Coal Seams 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Mt CO 2 Denmark Germany Greece Netherlands Norway UK France Total Europe: 122 Gt CO 2 Saline aquifers 54% Depleted oil and gas fields 32% Enhanced coal bed methan recovery 14% Sources: 1 GESTCO Recopol 2006 Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 24 / 58

25 Technology Database Renewable Power Plants (excerpt) Biomass / Biogas Internal combustion engines biogas Fuel cell biogas Condensing CHP wood straw Internal gasification wood IGCC CCS Biomass Hydro Run of river small / medium / large Dam storage large Pump storage Wind and Solar Wind onshore (differentiated by three wind classes) Wind offshore Solar PV (roof and plant size) Solar thermal Other Renewable Geothermal Hot dry rock Geothermal Steam turbine Tidal stream generator Wave energy converter Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 25 / 58

26 Hot Spots of Renewable Energy Production in Europe Annual Electricity Production [TWh] Germany Annual Electricity Production [TWh] Spain Annual Electricity Production [TWh] United Kingdom Annual Electricity Production [TWh] Sweden Hydro small + large Wind onshore Wind offshore Geothermal Photovoltaic Solarthermal Waste Biomass gas / liquid Biomass solid Tide + Wave Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 26 / 58

27 General structure of the industry Energy intensive Industry Iron&Steel Aluminium Copper Cement Ammonia Chlorine Lime Glass Pulp&Paper Other Industries Other nonferrous metals Other chemicals Other non-metallic minerals Other Industries Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 27 / 58

28 General structure of the industry Energy intensive Industry Process orientated Reference Energy System (RES) Demand of final products in natural units (Mt) Demand based on a simulation routine linked with GEM-E3 / NEWAGE Other Industries Standard structure Mix of 5 main energy uses (Steam Process Heat Machine Drive Electrochemical Others) Fuel demand (PJ) Demand based on a simulation routine linked with GEM-E3 / NEWAGE Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 28 / 58

29 Energy intensive Branches: Iron&Steel Process step Finished steel Crude steel Available technologies Finishing process Blast Oxygen Furnace regular (base; CCS) Blast Oxygen Furnace scrap Electric arc furnace EAF for DRI Cast iron cupola Row Iron Pellet production Sinter production Iron blast furnace (base; direct coal injection); COREX Sponge Iron for DRI Cyclone Converter Furnace Pellet production Sinter production Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 29 / 58

30 Iron&Steel ORE COG COK GAS SNT PLT OXY COA HFO COK BFG HTH DIR BFS GASBFG RIR HTH GAS SCR RFC QLI OXY LPG COK BFG CST LFO HFO GAS COK COG BFG LPG HTH COA IIS Source: Oxygen Iron Blast Furnace BY Electric Arc Furnace for DRI adv Source: Quick Lime Source: Ore Source: Scrap Iron Pellet Production BY/ adv Sinter Production BY/ adv Iron Blast Furnace adv Iron Blast Furnace direct coal injection Iron Blast Furnace with CCS Iron Corex adv Iron Cyclone Convertor Furnace Cast Iron Cupola adv Electric Arc Furnace BY/ adv Blast Oxygen Furnace Scrap BY/ adv Blast Oxygen Furnace Regular BY/ adv Argon Oxygen Furnace AOD regular BY/ adv Finishing Processes BY Finishing Processes BY Ferro Chrome Smelting Furnace Sponge Iron for DRI adv/ with CCS COK-Coke; Gas- Natural Gas; COG- Coke-Oven Gas; COA- Hard coal; BFG- Blast Furnace Gas; - Electricity; LPG- Liquefied Petroleum Gas; OXY- Oxygen; HFO- Heavy Fuel Oil; LFO- Light Fuel Oil; HTH- Higth Temp. Heat; RIR- Raw Iron; SCR- Scrap Iron; RFC- Ferrochrome; QLI- Quick Lime; SNT- Sinter; PLT- Pellet; CST- Crude Steel; ORE- Ore; IIS- Iron and Steel Demand; DIR- DRI Iron; BFS- Blast Furnace slag Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 30 / 58

31 Energy intensive Branches: Paper&Pulp Process step Production of high quality paper Production of low quality paper Pulp production Available technologies High quality production process Low quality production process Mechanical pulp production Chemical pulp production Recycling pulp production Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 31 / 58

32 Example RES: IPP Source Paper: Sodium Hydraxide Source Paper: Oxygen Source Paper: Wood Source Paper: Recycled Electricity Natural Gas High Temp. Heat Process Heat Sod. Hydr. Oxygen Recycled Wood Source Paper: Gypsum Source Paper: Kaolin Source Paper: Recycled Chemical Pulp Production BY Chemical Pulp Production adv. Black Liquor Biomass Electricity Natural Gas Liquefied Petroleum Gas High Temp. Heat Gypsum Kaolin Pulp Recycled Low Quality Paper Production BY Low Quality Paper Production adv. Low Quality Paper Production Adv Drives High Quality Paper Production BY Low Quality Paper Demand High Quality Paper Demand Mechanical Pulp Production BY High Quality Paper Production adv. Mechanical Pulp Production adv. High Quality Paper Production Adv Drives. Mechanical Pulp Production Airless drying Recycling Pulp Production BY Recycling Pulp Production adv Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 32 / 58

33 Heat supply in industry sector Possibilities of HEAT supply Public district heat Industrial CHPs Boiler (modeled as boilers for branches (BY) and generic industrial boiler (> 2000) Kilns (for extra high temperature) [separate heat commodity] Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 33 / 58

34 Residential and Commercial Sectors RSD Demand categories Space Heating Water Heating Space Cooling Lightning Cooking Refrigeration Cloth Washing Cloth Drying Dish Washing COM Demand categories Space Heating Water Heating Space Cooling Lightning Cooking Refrigeration Public Lightning Other Electric Other Energy Other Electric Other Energy Technology options (examples) Heat pumps Fuel Cells Biomass based Heating Systems Energy Saving Lamps Energy Saving Options (Improved Building Isolation)... Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 34 / 58

35 Structure of the Transport Sector in the TIMES Pan EU Model Transport Sector Car Bus Truck Moto Cycle Rail Aviation Navigation Short Distance Travel Long Distance Travel Urban Inter City Passenger Passenger Light Domestic International Inland Navigation Maritime Navigation Freight Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 35 / 58

36 Implemented Transport Technologies Fuel/Vehicle Car Bus Truck Motocycle Rail Aviation Navigation Gasoline +* +* +* +* + hybrid +* +* plug in hybrid +* Diesel +* +* +* +* + hybrid +* +* +* plug in hybrid +* Ethanol (E85) hybrid + + plug in hybrid + Biodiesel FT-Diesel (BTL/GTL/CTL) Electricity LPG + Natural Gas/Biogas hybrid + + plug in hybrid + Methanol IC Methanol FC + Dimethyleter Kerosene + Heavy fuel oil + Hydrogen (g) IC + Hydrogen (g) FC hybrid Hydrogen (l) IC + + implemented * Blending with biofuels or synthetic fuels possible Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 36 / 58

37 Objective and Scope The Energy and Climate Package aims at achieving via EU Emission Trading Scheme: -21% GHG in 2020 compared to 2005 Non-ETS: -10% GHG in 2020 compared to 2005 RES: 20% of final energy consumption in 2020 Assessment of the Proposed target distinctions for ETS and Non-ETS Effort sharing proposals between member states Role of the RES target including its national allocation.. and what happens beyond? Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 37 / 58

38 Optimal burding sharing in % 40% 36.2% 30% 30% 29.0% 28% 25.7% GHG Emission compared to % 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -3%-1.9% -19% -14.7% -32% -31.5% -33% -35.4% -27% -29.5% -21% -35.9% -3.9% -17% 16.3% 9% -35% -38.5% 0% 5.7% 3.3% -6% -19% -35% -24% -26.9% -38% -29.1% -31% -50% -49% -50.5% EC Proposal TIMES -44.5% -45% -51.5% -49.3% -60% AT BE BG CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HU IE IT NL PL PT RO SE SK UK Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 38 / 58

39 Optimal burding sharing in 2020 (and before the 50% economic crises) 40% 36.2% CO 2 emissions compared to Kyoto ( ) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -3%-1.9% -14.7% -19% -31.5% -32% -33% -35.4% -27% -29.5% 30% 29.0% -21% -35.9% -3.9% -17% 16.3% 9% -35% -38.5% 0% -6% 5.7% 3.3% -19% -35% 28% 25.7% -24% -26.9% -38% -29.1% -31% -50% -49% -50.5% EC Proposal TIMES Before -44.5% -45% -51.5% -49.3% -60% AT BE BG CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HU IE IT NL PL PT RO SE SK UK Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 39 / 58

40 Optimal share between ETS and Non-ETS reduction 30% % 22.1% 17.0% GHG Emission compared to % 8.3% 0% -10% -8.4% -11.5% -8.6% -20% -18.6% -19.4% -24.4% -24.7% -30% -27.3% -40% -4.3% -5.4% -31.8% -14.0% -1.5% 7.5% -21.3% -24.1% -22.6% -1.2% -6.3%-5.7% -7.4% 4.2% -13.3% -14.8% -3.4% -19.5% -7.3% -27.2% -4.7% -21.5% -8.8% -11.6%-11.3% -9.0% -38.2% -25.0% -37.9% -50% -44.8% -50.1% ETS Non ETS EU Target -60% AT BE BG CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HU IE IT NL PL PT RO SE SK UK EU- 27 Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 40 / 58

41 Optimal RES Allocation vs. EU-Targets 60% 53.9% Share of Renewable Energy at FEC 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 49.0% 41.8% 42.1% 36.8% 38.0% 34.0% 30.0% 30.0% 31.0% 26.8% 23.5% 24.7% 21.2% 23.0% 22.4% 24.0% 18.0% 20.0% 18.0% 18.6% 17.0% 16.0% 17.3% 16.5% 16.9% 14.0% 15.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.4% 10.3% 7.8% 21.0% 14.0% 15.0% 10.6% 0% AT BE BG CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HU IT NL PL PT RO SE SK UK EC-Targets 2020 BEST EU-27 Average Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 41 / 58

42 Dependency of the CO 2 reduction potential on the spec. CO 2 certificate price Spec. CO2-certificate prices in [ /t CO2] Reduction of CO 2 emissions in [Mill. t CO 2 ] Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 42 / 58

43 Scenario analysis 1. Baseline case (REF) No emission reduction measures Nuclear phase out according policy of respective EU countries Minimum renewable energy use 2. BEST climate policy on global trade EU target GHG emission reduction from 2020 linear to -39% by Second Best EU target GHG emission reduction from 2020 linear to -50% by Second Best VAR EU target GHG emission reduction from 2020 linear to -50% by 2050 Limit the ETS part to stress the Non-ETS sector Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 43 / 58

44 Scenario Comparison EU27: Carbon Emissions in 7000 Mt CO2/yr Sequestration of CO2 Transport Households commercial AGR 0 Statistic BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR Emissions of CO2 [Mt] Industry Conversion production Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 44 / 58

45 Scenario Comparison EU27: Net Electricity Production Others / Waste non-ren. Other Renewables Biomass / Waste ren. Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Statistic BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR Net electricity generation [TWh] Natural gas Oil Lignite Coal Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 45 / 58

46 Scenario Comparison EU27: Net electricity 1400 generation installed capacity [GW] Other not specified PV Net installed Capacity [GW] Wind Hydro Biomass solid / Waste Nuclear Gas CC CO2 Seq.Oxyfuel Gas CC CO2 Seq.Pre Comb. Gas CC Gas not specified Oil Lignite IGCC CO2 Seq. Lignite IGCC Lignite ST CO2 Seq.Oxyfuel Lignite ST CO2 Seq.Post Comb. Lignite ST 0 GHG_39 GHG_50 GHG_50_ETS BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR BAU BEST Second Best Second best VAR Lignite not specified Coal IGCC CO2 Seq. Coal IGCC Coal ST CO2 Seq.Oxyfuel Coal ST CO2 Seq.Post Comb Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 46 / 58 Coal ST Coal not specified

47 Scenario Comparison EU27: Net Electricity Imports Electricity net imports [TWh] 250 East Europe 200 Baltic states Scandinavia 50 Greece 0 Italy+Slovenia -50 Germany Alps (AT CH) -200 Benelux -250 France BAU BEST Second Best BAU BEST Second Best BAU BEST Second Best BAU BEST Second Best BAU BEST Second Best Iberia UK+Ireland Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 47 / 58

48 Scenario Comparison EU27: Electricity Prices Electricity Price in [ /MWh] BAU BEST Second Best Second Best Var year Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 48 / 58

49 Scenario definition and white certificates Scenario REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm Description Business as usual [Reference case] -21% CO 2 reduction till 2020 in ETS sector -21% CO 2 reduction till 2020 in ETS sector Reduction target Final Energy Consumption [white certificates for FEC] -21% CO 2 reduction till 2020 in ETS sector + 450ppm target till 2050 Reduction target Final Energy Consumption [white certificates for FEC] -21% CO 2 reduction till 2020 in ETS sector Reduction target Primary Energy Consumption [white certificates for PEC] -21% CO 2 reduction till 2020 in ETS sector + 450ppm target till 2050 Reduction target Primary Energy Consumption [white certificates for PEC] Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 49 / 58

50 Net electricity generation by technology (EU-27) Key effects: Net electricity generation [TWh] Statistic REF REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm FEC: Increase of public generation from condensing power plants/ decrease auto production (industry) PEC: Increase public CHP/ decrease public condensing plants (total decrease) 450ppm: Increase of electricity generation in both scenarios public cond. public CHP autoproducer CHP autoproducer cond Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 50 / 58

51 Final energy consumption (EU-27) Total final energy consumption [PJ] Statistic REF REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm Key effects: FEC: less renewables 450ppm: in both scenarios higher share of electricity and renewables less oil PEC: just small changes compared to scenario REF (shift to district heat less renewables) Coal Gas Heat Waste Petroleum products Electricity Renewables Others (Methanol Hydrogen) Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 51 / 58

52 Reduction of final energy consumption [%] Reduction final energy consumption by sector (EU-27) [scenario FEC compared to REF] 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Industry Commercial Households Transport Agriculture Total Key effects: Sector view: reduction mainly in residential and industry (main driver: space and process heat supply) 2025: also clear reduction in commercial sector Transport: no clear reduction before 2040 Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 52 / 58

53 Burden sharing: Reduction of primary energy consumption [scenarios compared to REF in 2020] Reduction of primary energy consumption [%] 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Key effects: Key driver: the main influence has the conversion/ production sector especially the electricity generation Burden sharing: according to changes in electricity generation (less nuclear/coal); also changes in electricity trade -25% EU27AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK PEC PEC_450ppm Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 53 / 58

54 Final Energy Consumption (CZ) Statistic REF REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm Total final energy consumption [PJ] Coal Petroleum products Gas Electricity Heat Renewables Waste Others (Methanol Hydrogen) Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 54 / 58

55 FEC Industry (CZ) Statistic REF REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm Coal Petroleum products Gas Electricity Heat Renewables Waste Others (Methanol Hydrogen) Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 55 / 58 Final energy consumption Industry [PJ]

56 Net electricity generation (CZ) Statistic REF REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm Net electricity generation [TWh] Coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Biomass / Waste ren. Other Renewables Others / Waste non-ren. Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 56 / 58

57 CO 2 - Emissions (CZ) Statistic REF REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm REF FEC FEC_450ppm PEC PEC_450ppm Emissions of CO2 [Mt] Conversion production Industry Households commercial AGR Transport Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 57 / 58

58 Conclusions The development of the Czech energy system is not independent of the EU27 policy and the energy policy in the other member states. The economic development or in general the requested demand influence on the same level the future energy system as the technology development and availability. A linkage between a CGE model can fill this gap. In the period between 2030 and 2050 the level of the GHG reduction target for the EU27 depends on the possibility of cost effective world wide reduction potentials. In general additional policy measures which are reducing the flexibility of the energy systems are not cost efficient. Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 58 / 58

59 Thank you for your attention! IER Institut für Energiewirtschaft Rationelle Energieanwendung Heßbrühlstr. 49a Stuttgart Tel.: / Markus.Blesl@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Markus Blesl TIMES PanEU 59 / 58